3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 9/2/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Xander Bogaerts To Hit a Home Run (+400)/Tommy Pham To Hit a Home Run (+440)
With a juicy matchup against Dallas Keuchel, the Sox should be popular in all areas tonight betting and DFS. Keuchel is with his third MLB team this season because he simply isn't good anymore. He comes in allowing a .606 SLG, .426 wOBA, 4.62 xFIP, 2.17 HR/9, 30.2% fly-ball rate, and a 21.2% HR/FB.
Keuchel is getting blasted by right-handed hitters this season and we should be looking to the Red Sox power-hitters to continue that trend tonight.
Xander Bogaerts is at the top of the list with his 183 wRC+, .432 wOBA, .179 ISO, 30.4% fly-ball rate, and 30.4% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers.
Tommy Pham comes in with a 138 wRC+, a.376 wOBA, .183 ISO, 34.1% fly-ball rate, and 34.1% hard-contact rate versus southpaws.
Of course, I'm going to add Bogaerts To Record an RBI (+115) and Pham To Record an RBI (+145).
Lance McCullers Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-112)
For a strikeout prop tonight, we're heading out to the West Coast.
The Houston Astros will have Lance McCullers on the mound tonight when they visit the Los Angeles Angels. McCullers made his season debut a few weeks ago after dealing with a forearm injury and has looked solid in three starts. What's most noticeable for McCullers? He has been at 81, 91, and 90 pitches through the first three outings.
That's good to see and shows he doesn't really have a pitch limit going forward. Due to the fact it's only three starts, we should look back to last season for a viable sample size. In 2021, he carried a solid 27.0% strikeout rate and an 11.6% swinging-strike rate.
Solid stuff overall from the veteran and he should be able to show that off tonight against the Angels, who come in with a 26.7% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the worst in the league.
It's a great matchup, and McCullers should have no limits to get deeper into the game tonight.
Pete Alonso To Record an RBI (+120)
The New York Mets are another team with a high implied run total, which sits at 4.53 tonight.
This is a straightforward matchup for the Mets, who are hosting the Washington Nationals for a weekend series. The Nats will have Josiah Gray on the mound, a pitcher who has some strike-out potential but also gets hit hard.
This season, Gray has a strong 27.9% strikeout rate versus right-handed hitters but is also allowing a .413 SLG, 1.61 HR/9, and a 44.0% fly-ball rate. It's certainly a mixed bag for the young pitcher, and when he isn't able to strikeout hitters, it can go bad in a hurry.
That leads us to Pete Alonso, who is rocking a 138 wRC+, .360 wOBA, .243 ISO, 44.0% fly-ball rate, and 35.6% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.
The Polar Bear is an elite hitter and can drive in runs every time he is at the plate, so I'm also adding Alonso 2+ RBI (+400).