MLB
MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Thursday 9/1/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
CHWDaniel
Mengden
9.05.2743.1%27.8%16.3%8.7%4.3%
BOSGlenn
Otto
9.55.2342.4%27.2%15.8%8.4%4.1%
ATLChad
Kuhl
8.05.1841.6%26.5%15.3%8.0%3.9%
TEXRich
Hill
9.54.2725.8%14.1%6.9%3.1%1.2%
CLEKyle
Bradish
7.54.2124.8%13.4%6.5%2.8%1.1%
SEAEduardo
Rodriguez
7.54.1223.4%12.4%5.9%2.5%1.0%
OAKPaolo
Espino
8.04.0021.5%11.1%5.1%2.1%0.8%
WSHKen
Waldichuk
8.04.0021.5%11.1%5.1%2.1%0.8%
LADChris
Bassitt
7.53.9721.0%10.8%4.9%2.0%0.8%
MILMerrill
Kelly
7.53.9420.6%10.5%4.8%2.0%0.7%
KCJohnny
Cueto
9.03.7317.4%8.4%3.7%1.4%0.5%
ARIBrandon
Woodruff
7.53.5615.0%7.0%2.9%1.1%0.4%
NYMClayton
Kershaw
7.53.5314.6%6.8%2.8%1.0%0.4%
DETLogan
Gilbert
7.53.3812.7%5.6%2.2%0.8%0.3%
BALShane
Bieber
7.53.2911.6%5.0%1.9%0.7%0.2%
COLSpencer
Strider
8.02.826.7%2.5%0.8%0.3%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Shane
Bieber
BAL7.393.1%84.9%73.1%58.8%44.0%30.5%19.7%
Spencer
Strider
COL6.890.8%80.9%67.4%52.2%37.3%24.6%15.1%
Brandon
Woodruff
ARI6.488.0%76.4%61.5%45.6%31.1%19.6%11.3%
Chris
Bassitt
LAD6.085.0%71.6%55.6%39.5%25.7%15.4%8.5%
Merrill
Kelly
MIL5.579.7%64.1%46.9%31.2%18.9%10.5%5.3%
Johnny
Cueto
KC5.377.8%61.5%44.2%28.7%17.0%9.2%4.5%
Clayton
Kershaw
NYM5.175.3%58.2%40.7%25.7%14.7%7.7%3.7%
Logan
Gilbert
DET4.971.3%53.3%35.8%21.6%11.8%5.9%2.7%
Daniel
Mengden
CHW4.565.8%46.8%29.7%16.9%8.7%4.0%1.7%
Rich
Hill
TEX4.362.3%43.0%26.3%14.4%7.1%3.2%1.3%
Kyle
Bradish
CLE4.362.3%43.0%26.3%14.4%7.1%3.2%1.3%
Eduardo
Rodriguez
SEA4.362.1%42.8%26.2%14.3%7.0%3.1%1.3%
Chad
Kuhl
ATL4.157.8%38.3%22.4%11.7%5.5%2.3%0.9%
Ken
Waldichuk
WSH4.057.2%37.7%22.0%11.4%5.3%2.2%0.9%
Glenn
Otto
BOS3.750.2%30.9%16.7%8.0%3.4%1.3%0.5%
Paolo
Espino
OAK3.547.2%28.2%14.8%6.8%2.8%1.1%0.4%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Matt
Olson
ATLYes100Chad
Kuhl
27.1%+270
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes103Kyle
Bradish
25.1%+300
Rafael
Devers
BOSYes93Glenn
Otto
23.9%+320
Austin
Riley
ATLNo97Chad
Kuhl
22.8%+340
Salvador
Perez
KCNo106Johnny
Cueto
21.2%+370
Mookie
Betts
LADNo98Chris
Bassitt
21.1%+375
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCNo106Johnny
Cueto
20.7%+385
Shea
Langeliers
OAKNo106Paolo
Espino
20.7%+385
Eugenio
Suarez
SEAYes99Eduardo
Rodriguez
20.1%+400
Adolis
Garcia
TEXYes99Rich
Hill
20.1%+400
Joey
Meneses
WSHYes106Ken
Waldichuk
19.9%+405
Corey
Seager
TEXNo93Rich
Hill
18.9%+430
Daulton
Varsho
ARIYes99Brandon
Woodruff
18.9%+430
William
Contreras
ATLNo97Chad
Kuhl
18.8%+430
Hunter
Renfroe
MILNo93Merrill
Kelly
18.7%+435
Lane
Thomas
WSHYes106Ken
Waldichuk
18.6%+435
Seth
Brown
OAKYes104Paolo
Espino
18.4%+445
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes99Rich
Hill
18.3%+445
Rowdy
Tellez
MILYes99Merrill
Kelly
18.3%+445
Marcus
Semien
TEXYes99Rich
Hill
17.7%+465
Ty
France
SEAYes99Eduardo
Rodriguez
17.7%+465
Nick
Pratto
KCYes111Johnny
Cueto
17.3%+475
Anthony
Santander
BALYes103Shane
Bieber
17.0%+490
Josh
Naylor
CLEYes103Kyle
Bradish
17.0%+490
Pete
Alonso
NYMYes98Clayton
Kershaw
16.9%+490
Tyler
Naquin
NYMNo95Clayton
Kershaw
16.9%+495
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSNo99Glenn
Otto
16.8%+495
MJ
Melendez
KCYes111Johnny
Cueto
16.7%+500
C.J.
Cron
COLNo97Spencer
Strider
16.5%+505
Kolten
Wong
MILYes99Merrill
Kelly
16.5%+505
Carlos
Santana
SEAYes99Eduardo
Rodriguez
16.4%+510
Mitch
Haniger
SEAYes99Eduardo
Rodriguez
16.4%+510
Christian
Walker
ARINo93Brandon
Woodruff
16.0%+525
Willy
Adames
MILNo93Merrill
Kelly
16.0%+525
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo106Daniel
Mengden
15.7%+535
Mark
Mathias
TEXYes99Rich
Hill
15.7%+535
Julio
Rodriguez
SEAYes99Eduardo
Rodriguez
15.7%+535
Trea
Turner
LADNo98Chris
Bassitt
15.4%+550
Carson
Kelly
ARINo93Brandon
Woodruff
15.4%+550
Ronald
Acuna
ATLNo97Chad
Kuhl
15.3%+555
Jeimer
Candelario
DETYes94Logan
Gilbert
15.2%+560
Justin
Turner
LADNo98Chris
Bassitt
14.8%+575
Freddie
Freeman
LADYes95Chris
Bassitt
14.7%+580
Dansby
Swanson
ATLNo97Chad
Kuhl
14.6%+585
Charlie
Blackmon
COLYes100Spencer
Strider
14.6%+585
Nelson
Cruz
WSHYes106Ken
Waldichuk
14.4%+590
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWNo106Daniel
Mengden
14.4%+595
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes103Kyle
Bradish
14.3%+600
Will
Smith
LADNo98Chris
Bassitt
14.1%+610
Luke
Voit
WSHYes106Ken
Waldichuk
13.7%+630
Hunter
Dozier
KCNo106Johnny
Cueto
13.7%+630
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALNo99Shane
Bieber
13.6%+635
Ryan
McMahon
COLYes100Spencer
Strider
13.3%+655
Michael
Harris
II
ATLYes100Chad
Kuhl
13.3%+655
Tommy
Pham
BOSNo99Glenn
Otto
12.9%+675
Jorge
Mateo
BALNo99Shane
Bieber
12.9%+675
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes103Shane
Bieber
12.9%+675
Dan
Vogelbach
NYMNo95Clayton
Kershaw
12.6%+695
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXNo93Rich
Hill
12.4%+710
Javier
Baez
DETNo99Logan
Gilbert
12.2%+720
Eloy
Jimenez
CHWNo106Daniel
Mengden
12.2%+720
Luis
Garcia
WSHYes106Ken
Waldichuk
12.1%+725
Mark
Canha
NYMYes98Clayton
Kershaw
12.1%+730
Max
Muncy
LADYes95Chris
Bassitt
12.0%+730
Franchy
Cordero
BOSYes93Glenn
Otto
11.8%+745
Austin
Hays
BALNo99Shane
Bieber
11.5%+770
Ramon
Urias
BALNo99Shane
Bieber
11.5%+770
A.J.
Pollock
CHWNo106Daniel
Mengden
11.4%+775
Sean
Murphy
OAKNo106Paolo
Espino
11.4%+775
Cody
Bellinger
LADYes95Chris
Bassitt
11.3%+785
Jace
Peterson
MILYes99Merrill
Kelly
11.0%+810
Trevor
Story
BOSNo99Glenn
Otto
10.8%+830
Jesse
Winker
SEANo94Eduardo
Rodriguez
10.8%+830
Steven
Kwan
CLEYes103Kyle
Bradish
10.6%+840
Joey
Gallo
LADYes95Chris
Bassitt
10.6%+840
Tucker
Barnhart
DETYes94Logan
Gilbert
10.5%+850
J.D.
Martinez
BOSNo99Glenn
Otto
10.0%+895
Enrique
Hernandez
BOSNo99Glenn
Otto
10.0%+895
Elias
Diaz
COLNo97Spencer
Strider
9.9%+915
Curt
Casali
SEAYes99Eduardo
Rodriguez
9.9%+915
Andrew
McCutchen
MILNo93Merrill
Kelly
9.5%+955
Christian
Yelich
MILYes99Merrill
Kelly
9.5%+955
Jake
McCarthy
ARIYes99Brandon
Woodruff
9.5%+955
Vaughn
Grissom
ATLNo97Chad
Kuhl
9.1%+995
Josh
Harrison
CHWNo106Daniel
Mengden
9.1%+1000
Romy
Gonzalez
CHWNo106Daniel
Mengden
9.1%+1000
Nick
Allen
OAKNo106Paolo
Espino
9.1%+1000
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes103Shane
Bieber
9.0%+1010
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes98Clayton
Kershaw
9.0%+1015
Robbie
Grossman
ATLYes100Chad
Kuhl
8.8%+1040
Keibert
Ruiz
WSHYes106Ken
Waldichuk
8.8%+1040
Ketel
Marte
ARIYes99Brandon
Woodruff
8.7%+1050
Alek
Thomas
ARIYes99Brandon
Woodruff
8.7%+1050
Randal
Grichuk
COLNo97Spencer
Strider
8.4%+1095
Garrett
Hampson
COLNo97Spencer
Strider
8.4%+1095
Stephen
Vogt
OAKYes104Paolo
Espino
8.3%+1110
Elvis
Andrus
CHWNo106Daniel
Mengden
8.2%+1115
Seby
Zavala
CHWNo106Daniel
Mengden
8.2%+1115
Alex
Verdugo
BOSYes93Glenn
Otto
8.2%+1115
Reese
McGuire
BOSYes93Glenn
Otto
8.2%+1115
Josh
Rojas
ARIYes99Brandon
Woodruff
7.9%+1165
Brendan
Rodgers
COLNo97Spencer
Strider
7.6%+1215
Riley
Greene
DETYes94Logan
Gilbert
7.5%+1225
Kerry
Carpenter
DETYes94Logan
Gilbert
7.5%+1225
Adam
Engel
CHWNo106Daniel
Mengden
7.4%+1250
Omar
Narvaez
MILYes99Merrill
Kelly
7.1%+1310
Oscar
Gonzalez
CLENo99Kyle
Bradish
7.0%+1340
Willi
Castro
DETYes94Logan
Gilbert
6.8%+1375
Tony
Kemp
OAKYes104Paolo
Espino
6.6%+1420
Leody
Taveras
TEXYes99Rich
Hill
6.5%+1430
Ezequiel
Duran
TEXYes99Rich
Hill
6.5%+1430
Bubba
Thompson
TEXYes99Rich
Hill
6.5%+1430
Rougned
Odor
BALYes103Shane
Bieber
6.5%+1435
Brandon
Nimmo
NYMNo95Clayton
Kershaw
6.4%+1450
J.P.
Crawford
SEANo94Eduardo
Rodriguez
6.4%+1465
Geraldo
Perdomo
ARIYes99Brandon
Woodruff
6.3%+1495
Garrett
Mitchell
MILYes99Merrill
Kelly
6.3%+1495

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