3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 8/31/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Julio Rodriguez To Hit a Home Run (+280)
The Tigers will have Tyler Alexander on the mound tonight, a left-handed pitcher who struggles versus righty power hitters. This season, Alexander is allowing a .483 SLG, a .347 wOBA, a 5.36 xFIP, 1.65 HR/9, a 43.7% fly-ball rate, and a 34.4% hard-contact rate to right-handed hitters.
Combine those numbers with some wind blowing out to left field tonight and we are dealing with a fantastic hitting environment.
This leads up to rookie sensation, Julio Rodriguez, who comes in with a 135 wRC+, a .349 wOBA, a .178 ISO, a 39.4% fly-ball rate, and a 19.2% HR/FB ratio versus left-handed pitchers.
It's a great matchup for the Mariners and Rodriguez, so I'm adding Rodriguez To Record an RBI (+105).
Bryce Harper To Record an RBI (+135)
The Philadelphia Phillies need a bounce-back win and need to get their offense going.
A three-game losing streak in the midst of a playoff hunt is the last thing the Phillies want to see, and they need to turn things around. Tonight, they come in with a slate-high 5.01 implied run total and are set to take on Tommy Henry of the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Henry is a rookie with a small sample size (27.2 innings) and an even smaller sample size (3.2 innings) versus left-handed hitters. I'll use the overall sample size since that's the lesser of two evils. He comes in with a 5.13 xFIP, a low 16.4% strikeout rate, a 10.3% walk rate, a 42.7% fly-ball rate, and a 36.1% hard-contact rate.
Those are very modest to bad numbers, and the Phillies' offense can -- hopefully -- get some runs on the board.
We turn to Bryce Harper, who comes in with a 161 wRC+, a .405 wOBA, a .232 ISO, and a 17.7% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers. He doesn't strike out, and puts the ball in play versus lefties. With Harper hitting in the top portion of the Phillies' lineup, he should have plenty of chances to drive in a run.
Harper is an elite hitter, so a little sprinkle on Harper 2+ RBI (+440) could be worth it.
Matt Olson To Record 2+ Total Bases (+105)
Variance is a hell of a thing.
Last night, the Atlanta Braves were facing a bad pitcher, Jose Urena, and only managed to score two runs. They had everything they could want going in their favor and they simply didn't get the job done. Specifically, Matt Olson was in an elite matchup. He came into last night with three multi-hit games in his last four outings and went hitless at the plate for the second straight game.
It's baseball; it's a weird sport sometimes. We were on the bad side of variance last night, and tonight, hopefully, we're on the good side.
I'm going back to the well with Olson tonight, who is rocking a 127 wRC+, a .358 wOBA, a .267 ISO, a 42.4% fly-ball rate, and a 43.3% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.
Olson is taking on Ryan Feltner, who is allowing a .465 SLG, a .337 wOBA, a 4.68 xFIP, 1.65 HR/9, a 42.3% fly-ball rate, and a 38.5% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters.
It was a straightforward matchup last night. and it's the same tonight. We ust need to be on the right side of variance tonight.