MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 8/30/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Over 7.5 (-102): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model loves the over in this game, and we think the Houston Astros' offense does most of the work to get us to eight-plus runs.
Houston is one of the elite offenses in baseball, and they should have a field day against Dane Dunning. Over 129 frames this season, Dunning has pitched to a 4.13 SIERA and 20.0% strikeout rate. He owns a 4.15 SIERA and 21.5% strikeout rate for his career. In short, he's a slightly below average hurler, and those kind of guys usually don't have a lot of success against Houston.
Dunning has also been mauled by lefties, permitting a .366 wOBA in the split, which should spell trouble against Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez, assuming Alvarez -- who sat Sunday with a hand issue -- is in the lineup.
Valdez has been excellent this year, putting up a 3.28 SIERA and 67.5% ground-ball rate. However, he isn't a big swing-and-miss guy, recording a 22.4% strikeout rate and 10.7% swinging-strike rate. We think the Rangers push across 4.08 runs tonight, but there's room for Texas to fall short of that and the over to cash as long as Houston's bats deliver the goods.
So, in all, we project there to be a total of 9.60 runs scored. That's well over this 7.5-run line, and we think the over hits 67.1% of the time. It's a four-star bet (four-unit recommendation), according to our numbers.
Giants Moneyline (+108): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Snell has been outstanding in the second half, sporting a 32.9% strikeout rate and 2.50 xFIP in the split. But this is Blake Snell we're talking about. He's been one of the most volatile arms in the game since being dealt to the San Diego Padres, and that reared its head in his last start as he was tagged for six earned runs in 3 1/3 innings against the Cleveland Guardians.
Prior to the big second half, Snell was having a rough year, struggling to a 4.88 xFIP in the first half, so time will tell how legit his second-half spurt really is.
As for Webb, he has taken a step back after a pristine 2021 campaign, seeing a sizable drop in strikeout rate (19.9%), and he's got the tougher matchup of the two pitchers. Webb has still been really good overall, though, boasting a 3.66 SIERA and continuing to get a plethora of grounders (58.4% ground-ball rate).
On top of that, Webb has been stellar against the Padres this year, facing them twice and tossing eight frames of one-run ball in each start.
The Padres are listed as -126 moneyline favorites, but our model gives the Giants win odds of 55.1%. We rate taking San Fran at their +108 moneyline price as a two-star bet.