MLB
MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Tuesday 8/30/22
Betting MLB player props or playing daily fantasy baseball? See who is most likely to homer, rack up the most strikeouts, and score the most runs today.

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
STLJustin
Dunn
10.05.8052.2%36.2%22.9%13.3%7.1%
ATLJose
Urena
8.55.4746.6%30.9%18.7%10.3%5.2%
MILMitch
Keller
9.05.0639.5%24.7%14.0%7.2%3.4%
NYYMike
Mayers
8.54.7634.2%20.4%11.0%5.4%2.4%
MINKutter
Crawford
9.04.7433.9%20.1%10.8%5.2%2.3%
TORMarcus
Stroman
8.04.6832.8%19.3%10.2%4.9%2.2%
LADTaijuan
Walker
8.54.5230.0%17.2%8.8%4.1%1.8%
SEAMatt
Manning
8.04.4028.0%15.6%7.9%3.6%1.5%
CLESpenser
Watkins
8.04.3326.8%14.8%7.3%3.3%1.3%
BOSChris
Archer
9.04.2625.7%13.9%6.8%3.0%1.2%
OAKErick
Fedde
8.54.2525.5%13.8%6.7%3.0%1.2%
WSHCole
Irvin
8.54.2525.5%13.8%6.7%3.0%1.2%
CINDakota
Hudson
10.04.2024.7%13.3%6.4%2.8%1.1%
HOUDane
Dunning
7.54.1523.9%12.7%6.1%2.6%1.0%
PHIZac
Gallen
7.53.9921.3%11.0%5.1%2.1%0.8%
NYMAndrew
Heaney
8.53.9821.2%10.9%5.0%2.1%0.8%
CHWBrady
Singer
7.53.9520.7%10.6%4.8%2.0%0.7%
PITAdrian
Houser
9.03.9420.6%10.5%4.8%2.0%0.7%
SDLogan
Webb
7.53.8919.8%10.0%4.5%1.8%0.7%
TBJesus
Luzardo
6.53.8218.7%9.3%4.1%1.6%0.6%
LAAJameson
Taillon
8.53.7417.6%8.5%3.7%1.5%0.5%
BALCal
Quantrill
8.03.6716.6%7.9%3.4%1.3%0.5%
SFBlake
Snell
7.53.6115.7%7.4%3.1%1.2%0.4%
DETGeorge
Kirby
8.03.6015.6%7.3%3.1%1.2%0.4%
KCLucas
Giolito
7.53.5514.9%6.9%2.9%1.1%0.4%
ARIAaron
Nola
7.53.5114.4%6.6%2.7%1.0%0.3%
TEXFramber
Valdez
7.53.3512.3%5.4%2.1%0.8%0.2%
CHCKevin
Gausman
8.03.3212.0%5.2%2.0%0.7%0.2%
COLMax
Fried
8.53.038.7%3.5%1.3%0.4%0.1%
MIAShane
McClanahan
6.52.685.5%2.0%0.6%0.2%0.0%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Shane
McClanahan
MIA7.292.7%84.3%72.2%57.7%42.8%29.5%18.8%
Aaron
Nola
ARI7.192.4%83.7%71.3%56.7%41.8%28.5%18.1%
Max
Fried
COL6.790.2%79.9%66.1%50.6%35.8%23.4%14.1%
Kevin
Gausman
CHC6.589.0%77.9%63.4%47.7%33.0%21.1%12.4%
Blake
Snell
SF6.387.1%74.8%59.5%43.5%29.3%18.1%10.3%
Lucas
Giolito
KC6.185.7%72.8%57.0%41.0%27.0%16.3%9.1%
Andrew
Heaney
NYM6.185.4%72.3%56.4%40.3%26.4%15.9%8.8%
Brady
Singer
CHW6.185.3%72.2%56.2%40.2%26.3%15.8%8.7%
Framber
Valdez
TEX6.084.6%71.1%54.9%38.9%25.2%15.0%8.2%
Jesus
Luzardo
TB5.781.7%66.8%50.0%34.1%21.2%12.1%6.3%
Logan
Webb
SD5.579.7%64.1%46.9%31.2%18.9%10.5%5.3%
Zac
Gallen
PHI5.478.9%63.0%45.7%30.1%18.1%9.9%5.0%
George
Kirby
DET5.377.7%61.4%44.0%28.6%16.9%9.1%4.5%
Jameson
Taillon
LAA5.174.7%57.5%40.0%25.1%14.3%7.4%3.5%
Adrian
Houser
PIT5.073.1%55.4%37.9%23.3%13.0%6.6%3.1%
Cole
Irvin
WSH4.464.4%45.3%28.3%15.9%8.0%3.7%1.5%
Matt
Manning
SEA4.464.4%45.3%28.3%15.9%8.0%3.7%1.5%
Cal
Quantrill
BAL4.362.6%43.3%26.7%14.7%7.3%3.2%1.3%
Dane
Dunning
HOU4.361.4%42.0%25.5%13.8%6.7%3.0%1.2%
Kutter
Crawford
MIN4.159.2%39.7%23.6%12.5%5.9%2.5%1.0%
Taijuan
Walker
LAD4.158.8%39.3%23.2%12.2%5.8%2.5%1.0%
Chris
Archer
BOS4.056.3%36.7%21.2%10.9%5.0%2.1%0.8%
Marcus
Stroman
TOR3.955.5%35.9%20.6%10.5%4.8%2.0%0.7%
Dakota
Hudson
CIN3.954.1%34.6%19.5%9.8%4.4%1.8%0.7%
Erick
Fedde
OAK3.852.7%33.2%18.4%9.1%4.0%1.6%0.6%
Justin
Dunn
STL3.852.2%32.8%18.1%8.9%3.9%1.6%0.6%
Mitch
Keller
MIL3.750.4%31.1%16.8%8.1%3.5%1.3%0.5%
Jose
Urena
ATL3.444.6%26.0%13.2%5.9%2.4%0.9%0.3%
Spenser
Watkins
CLE3.239.1%21.4%10.2%4.3%1.6%0.5%0.2%
Mike
Mayers
NYY2.933.5%17.1%7.6%3.0%1.0%0.3%0.1%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Nolan
Arenado
STLNo111Justin
Dunn
29.8%+235
Aaron
Judge
NYYNo103Mike
Mayers
29.0%+245
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLNo111Justin
Dunn
27.6%+260
Matt
Olson
ATLYes100Jose
Urena
25.9%+285
Giancarlo
Stanton
NYYNo103Mike
Mayers
25.6%+290
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORNo101Marcus
Stroman
25.3%+295
Bryce
Harper
PHIYes99Zac
Gallen
24.4%+310
Rafael
Devers
BOSYes99Chris
Archer
24.4%+310
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORNo101Marcus
Stroman
23.9%+320
Austin
Riley
ATLNo97Jose
Urena
23.7%+320
Eugenio
Suarez
SEANo99Matt
Manning
23.6%+325
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes103Spenser
Watkins
23.2%+330
Nolan
Gorman
STLYes113Justin
Dunn
23.1%+335
Kyle
Schwarber
PHIYes99Zac
Gallen
23.1%+335
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes101Adrian
Houser
22.4%+345
Tyler
O'Neill
STLNo111Justin
Dunn
21.9%+355
Oneil
Cruz
PITYes101Adrian
Houser
21.9%+355
George
Springer
TORNo101Marcus
Stroman
21.5%+365
Rowdy
Tellez
MILYes101Mitch
Keller
21.4%+370
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYYes108Mike
Mayers
21.3%+370
Seth
Brown
OAKYes104Erick
Fedde
21.3%+370
Shohei
Ohtani
LAAYes108Jameson
Taillon
20.7%+385
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUYes101Dane
Dunning
20.3%+395
Rhys
Hoskins
PHINo93Zac
Gallen
20.3%+395
Mike
Trout
LAANo103Jameson
Taillon
20.2%+395
Lane
Thomas
WSHYes106Cole
Irvin
19.9%+405
Kyle
Tucker
HOUYes101Dane
Dunning
19.7%+405
Gleyber
Torres
NYYNo103Mike
Mayers
19.7%+410
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo106Brady
Singer
19.5%+415
Danny
Jansen
TORNo101Marcus
Stroman
19.4%+415
Willy
Adames
MILNo103Mitch
Keller
18.5%+440
Will
Smith
LADNo98Taijuan
Walker
18.4%+445
Jorge
Polanco
MINYes99Kutter
Crawford
18.3%+445
Colin
Moran
CINYes113Dakota
Hudson
18.3%+450
Jesse
Winker
SEAYes94Matt
Manning
18.1%+450
Wilmer
Flores
SFYes90Blake
Snell
18.1%+450
Jose
Trevino
NYYNo103Mike
Mayers
17.9%+460
Trea
Turner
LADNo98Taijuan
Walker
17.8%+460
Salvador
Perez
KCNo106Lucas
Giolito
17.7%+465
Anthony
Santander
BALYes103Cal
Quantrill
17.6%+470
Isaac
Paredes
TBYes90Jesus
Luzardo
17.6%+470
Sean
Murphy
OAKNo106Erick
Fedde
17.1%+485
Willson
Contreras
CHCNo101Kevin
Gausman
17.0%+485
Evan
Longoria
SFYes90Blake
Snell
17.0%+490
Chas
McCormick
HOUNo95Dane
Dunning
16.8%+495
Luis
Urias
MILNo103Mitch
Keller
16.7%+500
Mookie
Betts
LADNo98Taijuan
Walker
16.6%+500
Trevor
Story
BOSNo98Chris
Archer
16.6%+500
William
Contreras
ATLNo97Jose
Urena
16.5%+505
Bo
Bichette
TORNo101Marcus
Stroman
16.4%+510
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCNo106Lucas
Giolito
16.4%+510
Carlos
Santana
SEAYes94Matt
Manning
16.4%+510
Mitch
Haniger
SEANo99Matt
Manning
16.2%+520
Rodolfo
Castro
PITYes101Adrian
Houser
16.1%+520
Nick
Pratto
KCYes111Lucas
Giolito
15.9%+525
Adolis
Garcia
TEXYes95Framber
Valdez
15.9%+530
Franchy
Cordero
BOSYes99Chris
Archer
15.8%+530
Daulton
Varsho
ARIYes99Aaron
Nola
15.8%+530
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWNo106Brady
Singer
15.7%+535
Josh
Naylor
CLEYes103Spenser
Watkins
15.7%+540
Starling
Marte
NYMYes98Andrew
Heaney
15.6%+540
Ramon
Urias
BALNo99Cal
Quantrill
15.5%+545
Jake
Fraley
CINYes113Dakota
Hudson
15.4%+545
Lars
Nootbaar
STLYes113Justin
Dunn
15.4%+545
Jack
Suwinski
PITYes101Adrian
Houser
15.4%+550
Hunter
Renfroe
MILNo103Mitch
Keller
15.4%+550
Freddie
Freeman
LADYes95Taijuan
Walker
15.3%+555
Nelson
Cruz
WSHYes106Cole
Irvin
15.2%+560
Ian
Happ
CHCYes94Kevin
Gausman
15.2%+560
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes94Matt
Manning
15.2%+560
Franmil
Reyes
CHCNo101Kevin
Gausman
15.1%+560
Shea
Langeliers
OAKNo106Erick
Fedde
15.1%+565
Martin
Maldonado
HOUNo95Dane
Dunning
15.0%+565
Rougned
Odor
BALYes103Cal
Quantrill
15.0%+565
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes103Cal
Quantrill
15.0%+565
Javier
Baez
DETNo99George
Kirby
14.9%+570
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALNo99Cal
Quantrill
14.9%+570
C.J.
Cron
COLYes97Max
Fried
14.8%+575
J.T.
Realmuto
PHINo93Zac
Gallen
14.8%+580
Corey
Dickerson
STLYes113Justin
Dunn
14.7%+580
Jeimer
Candelario
DETYes94George
Kirby
14.5%+585
MJ
Melendez
KCYes111Lucas
Giolito
14.5%+590
Jose
Altuve
HOUNo95Dane
Dunning
14.4%+595
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes103Cal
Quantrill
14.3%+600
Gio
Urshela
MINNo98Kutter
Crawford
14.1%+610
Jo
Adell
LAANo103Jameson
Taillon
14.0%+610
Joey
Gallo
LADYes95Taijuan
Walker
14.0%+615
Corey
Seager
TEXNo101Framber
Valdez
13.9%+620
Matt
Chapman
TORNo101Marcus
Stroman
13.8%+625
Luke
Voit
WSHYes106Cole
Irvin
13.7%+630
Luis
Robert
CHWNo106Brady
Singer
13.7%+630
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes98Andrew
Heaney
13.5%+640
Carson
Kelly
ARINo93Aaron
Nola
13.5%+640
J.D.
Martinez
BOSNo98Chris
Archer
13.5%+645
Enrique
Hernandez
BOSNo98Chris
Archer
13.5%+645
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes108Jameson
Taillon
13.4%+645
Max
Muncy
LADYes95Taijuan
Walker
13.4%+650
Josh
Donaldson
NYYNo103Mike
Mayers
13.3%+650
Marcus
Semien
TEXYes95Framber
Valdez
13.2%+660
Mark
Mathias
TEXYes95Framber
Valdez
13.2%+660
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes95Framber
Valdez
13.2%+660
Ketel
Marte
ARIYes99Aaron
Nola
13.2%+660
Brandon
Drury
SDNo90Logan
Webb
13.1%+660
Alex
Bregman
HOUNo95Dane
Dunning
13.1%+665
Jeremy
Pena
HOUNo95Dane
Dunning
13.1%+665
Juan
Soto
SDYes87Logan
Webb
13.0%+665
Gavin
Sheets
CHWYes111Brady
Singer
12.9%+670
Julio
Rodriguez
SEANo99Matt
Manning
12.9%+675
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes103Spenser
Watkins
12.9%+675
Eduardo
Escobar
NYMYes98Andrew
Heaney
12.8%+680
Pete
Alonso
NYMYes98Andrew
Heaney
12.8%+680
Carlos
Correa
MINNo98Kutter
Crawford
12.8%+680
Cody
Bellinger
LADYes95Taijuan
Walker
12.7%+685
Jonathan
India
CINNo111Dakota
Hudson
12.7%+690
Trey
Mancini
HOUNo95Dane
Dunning
12.5%+705
Max
Kepler
MINYes99Kutter
Crawford
12.5%+705
Josh
Bell
SDYes87Logan
Webb
12.4%+705
Trent
Grisham
SDYes87Logan
Webb
12.4%+705
Ty
France
SEANo99Matt
Manning
12.2%+720
Chad
Pinder
OAKNo106Erick
Fedde
12.2%+720
Joey
Meneses
WSHYes106Cole
Irvin
12.1%+725
Jose
Miranda
MINNo98Kutter
Crawford
12.1%+725
Darin
Ruf
NYMYes98Andrew
Heaney
12.1%+730
Mark
Canha
NYMYes98Andrew
Heaney
12.1%+730
Ronald
Acuna
ATLNo97Jose
Urena
12.0%+735
Ryan
McMahon
COLNo100Max
Fried
12.0%+735
J.D.
Davis
SFYes90Blake
Snell
11.9%+740
Nick
Fortes
MIAYes90Shane
McClanahan
11.9%+740
Austin
Hays
BALNo99Cal
Quantrill
11.5%+770
Eloy
Jimenez
CHWNo106Brady
Singer
11.4%+775
Tommy
Pham
BOSNo98Chris
Archer
11.4%+775
Brendan
Rodgers
COLYes97Max
Fried
11.2%+790
Tucker
Barnhart
DETYes94George
Kirby
11.2%+790
Riley
Greene
DETYes94George
Kirby
11.2%+790
Thairo
Estrada
SFYes90Blake
Snell
11.2%+790
Kolten
Wong
MILYes101Mitch
Keller
11.2%+795
Ben
Gamel
PITYes101Adrian
Houser
11.2%+795
Michael
Chavis
PITNo103Adrian
Houser
11.2%+795
Michael
Harris
II
ATLYes100Jose
Urena
11.1%+800
Andrew
Benintendi
NYYYes108Mike
Mayers
11.1%+805
Alejandro
Kirk
TORNo101Marcus
Stroman
11.0%+810
Jorge
Mateo
BALNo99Cal
Quantrill
10.8%+830
Justin
Turner
LADNo98Taijuan
Walker
10.7%+835
Dansby
Swanson
ATLNo97Jose
Urena
10.6%+845
Manny
Machado
SDNo90Logan
Webb
10.6%+845
Alec
Bohm
PHINo93Zac
Gallen
10.2%+880
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXNo101Framber
Valdez
10.2%+880
Yandy
Diaz
TBYes90Jesus
Luzardo
9.8%+920
Randy
Arozarena
TBYes90Jesus
Luzardo
9.8%+920
Christian
Walker
ARINo93Aaron
Nola
9.5%+955
Oscar
Gonzalez
CLENo99Spenser
Watkins
9.3%+975
TJ
Friedl
CINYes113Dakota
Hudson
8.9%+1020
Brandon
Crawford
SFNo87Blake
Snell
8.9%+1020
Mike
Yastrzemski
SFNo87Blake
Snell
8.9%+1020
Brian
Serven
COLYes97Max
Fried
8.9%+1025
Christian
Yelich
MILYes101Mitch
Keller
8.9%+1025
Max
Stassi
LAANo103Jameson
Taillon
8.8%+1030
Luis
Garcia
WSHYes106Cole
Irvin
8.8%+1040
Sandy
Leon
MINYes99Kutter
Crawford
8.7%+1050
Seiya
Suzuki
CHCNo101Kevin
Gausman
8.7%+1050
Andrew
Velazquez
LAAYes108Jameson
Taillon
8.6%+1065
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSNo98Chris
Archer
8.5%+1085
Brandon
Nimmo
NYMNo95Andrew
Heaney
8.4%+1090
Gavin
Lux
LADYes95Taijuan
Walker
8.4%+1090
Garrett
Cooper
MIAYes90Shane
McClanahan
8.3%+1105
Joey
Bart
SFYes90Blake
Snell
8.3%+1105
Jose
Siri
TBYes90Jesus
Luzardo
8.3%+1105
Peyton
Burdick
MIAYes90Shane
McClanahan
8.3%+1105
Hunter
Dozier
KCNo106Lucas
Giolito
8.2%+1115
Connor
Joe
COLYes97Max
Fried
8.1%+1135
Elehuris
Montero
COLYes97Max
Fried
8.1%+1135
Omar
Narvaez
MILYes101Mitch
Keller
8.1%+1140
Tommy
Edman
STLYes113Justin
Dunn
8.0%+1145
Brendan
Donovan
STLYes113Justin
Dunn
8.0%+1145
Robbie
Grossman
ATLYes100Jose
Urena
8.0%+1150
Luis
Arraez
MINYes99Kutter
Crawford
7.9%+1165
Lourdes
Gurriel
TORNo101Marcus
Stroman
7.9%+1165
Yadier
Molina
STLNo111Justin
Dunn
7.7%+1195
Kyle
Farmer
CINNo111Dakota
Hudson
7.7%+1195
Christian
Bethancourt
TBYes90Jesus
Luzardo
7.5%+1225
Austin
Slater
SFYes90Blake
Snell
7.5%+1225
Josh
Harrison
CHWNo106Brady
Singer
7.4%+1250
Michael
Taylor
KCNo106Lucas
Giolito
7.4%+1250
Nick
Castellanos
PHINo93Zac
Gallen
7.3%+1265
Andrew
McCutchen
MILNo103Mitch
Keller
7.2%+1285
Bryson
Stott
PHIYes99Zac
Gallen
7.1%+1310
Nicky
Lopez
KCYes111Lucas
Giolito
7.0%+1335
Ildemaro
Vargas
WSHYes106Cole
Irvin
7.0%+1335
Myles
Straw
CLENo99Spenser
Watkins
7.0%+1340
Brian
Anderson
MIAYes90Shane
McClanahan
6.8%+1375

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