FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Sunday 8/28/22
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Justin Verlander ($11,400)
At his most expensive salary point this season, Verlander rates as numberFire's second overall pitcher with a 38.5 FanDuel point projection against a Baltimore Orioles' lineup with a .300 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and 25.9% K-rate.
In his most recent four starts in August, Houston's veteran continues to make his run towards another Cy Young Award, recording a 2.93 expected Fielding Independent Rating (xFIP), a 28.0% strikeout percentage, and a 11.8% swinging strike rate through 25.0 innings.
With six Baltimore batters with K-rates between 21.4% and 31.2% and contact percentages ranging from 67.0% to 75.2%, Verlander has a clear and easy path towards achieving Sunday's third highest strikeout prediction at 6.91.
Max Scherzer ($11,000)
After a 4.3% salary decrease, New York's 38-year old ace ranks first among Sunday's 22 pitchers in several categories with his 44.1 fantasy expectation, 4.01 value rating, and 8.63 strikeout expectation against a Colorado Rockies' team with an attackable .299 wOBA in their last 527 plate appearances against right-handers.
While Scherzer has not been in premier form in August (4.31 xFIP in 33.2 innings), the Mets' veteran has still produced a steady floor with a 13.9% swinging strike rate, a 24.1% strikeout percentage, and six or more punch-outs in 60% of these appearances.
Dylan Cease ($10,600)
Chicago's 26-year old strikeout artist is another elite option with a 3.29 xFIP and a sizzling 31.8% K-rate standing at his second lowest salary point in August.
Although Cease has struggled in his most recent four starts when examining his 4.75 xFIP and 12.4% walk rate through 22.1 innings, the White Sox's Cy Young contender still ranks third overall with a 38.1 FanDuel point projection and second in strikeouts with a 7.80 mark against an Arizona Diamondbacks' team with five batters with strikeout percentages over 21.6% and contact percentages between 69.7% and 78.6%.
With a fully healthy lineup, the Phillies' 5.5 gaudy run total is an attractive offensive spot against Pittsburgh's young right-hander Roansy Contreras.
In his first extensive opportunity starting in the Majors, the 22-year old is due for some regression through 63.0 innings when examining the vast difference between his 4.55 xFIP and his 3.86 Earned Run Average, his troublesome 10.7% walk rate, and his opposing 11.5% barrel percentage.
With most of Contreras' struggles occurring against left-handed hitters (5.26 xFIP, 1.60 strikeout-to-walk ratio), Kyle Schwarber (21.2% barrel rate, .540 expected slugging) and Bryce Harper (.599 expected slugging, 14% barrel rate) are the main components of a potential stack while Alec Bohm (.296 expected average, .440 expected slugging, Rhys Hoskins (11.8% barrel percentage, .467 expected slugging), Nick Castellanos (.403 expected slugging), J.T. Realmuto (9.5% barrel percentage, .443 expected slugging), and Jean Segura (.310 expected wOBA, 41.8% hard hit rate) all deserve consideration,
In a mouth-watering opportunity against Tucker Davidson, the Blue Jays' 5.7 run total still appears undervalued versus a well-below average lefty with a depressing 6.08 xFIP and a walk percentage (15.5%) somehow higher than his strikeout metrics (11.3%).
To ideally attack Davidson's trouble against right-handed bats (5.66 xFIP, .345 wOBA) and his strong overall ground-ball tendencies (43.1%), Toronto combinations can include any of their top fly-ball or power batters including George Springer (8% barrel rate, 39.5% fly-ball percentage), Teoscar Hernandez (42.4% fly-ball rate, 13.8% barrel rate), Matt Chapman (14.3% barrel percentage, 46.4% fly-ball percentage), Bo Bichette (9.4% barrel rate, .424 expected slugging), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (12% barrel percentage, .490 expected slugging).
Since his call-up from Triple-A on August 23rd, Heasley has not displayed much improvement from his seasonal form (5.40 xFIP, 1.45 strikeout-to-walk ratio), accounting for a 5.59 xFIP, a 6.5% swinging strike rate, and a 11.1% walk percentage in his most recent three starts.
With left-handed bats doing the most damage versus Heasley (.386 wOBA, 19.6% home-run to fly-ball percentage), Juan Soto (12.5% barrel percentage, .527 expected slugging), Josh Bell (.359 expected wOBA, .445 expected slugging), Jurickson Profar (.321 expected wOBA), and Trent Grisham (8.2% barrel rate) stand out first while Manny Machado (.442 expected slugging, 9.4% barrel rate) and Brandon Drury (10.6% barrel percentage, .416 expected slugging) provide power from the right side.