MLB
MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Friday 8/26/22
Betting MLB player props or playing daily fantasy baseball? See who is most likely to homer, rack up the most strikeouts, and score the most runs today.

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at FanDuel Sportsbook.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
PHIBryse
Wilson
9.05.4646.4%30.8%18.6%10.2%5.2%
HOUKyle
Bradish
8.54.9838.1%23.5%13.1%6.7%3.1%
SDKris
Bubic
8.54.8034.9%20.9%11.3%5.6%2.5%
TORReid
Detmers
8.54.8034.9%20.9%11.3%5.6%2.5%
CHWTommy
Henry
8.54.7834.6%20.6%11.1%5.5%2.5%
NYMChad
Kuhl
7.54.7133.3%19.7%10.5%5.1%2.2%
WSHMike
Minor
8.54.5029.7%16.9%8.7%4.0%1.7%
BOSJ.T.
Chargois
8.54.4128.2%15.8%7.9%3.6%1.5%
TEXTyler
Alexander
8.04.3927.8%15.5%7.8%3.5%1.5%
NYYJP
Sears
7.04.1323.6%12.5%5.9%2.5%1.0%
MILJustin
Steele
7.54.0922.9%12.0%5.7%2.4%0.9%
TBMichael
Wacha
8.54.0922.9%12.0%5.7%2.4%0.9%
CINCade
Cavalli
8.54.0021.5%11.1%5.1%2.1%0.8%
ATLJose
Quintana
7.53.9921.3%11.0%5.1%2.1%0.8%
MINAlex
Wood
7.53.9420.6%10.5%4.8%2.0%0.7%
ARIJohnny
Cueto
8.53.7217.3%8.4%3.6%1.4%0.5%
KCJoe
Musgrove
8.53.7017.0%8.2%3.5%1.4%0.5%
LAAMitch
White
8.53.7017.0%8.2%3.5%1.4%0.5%
DETGlenn
Otto
8.03.6115.7%7.4%3.1%1.2%0.4%
SFJoe
Ryan
7.53.5615.0%7.0%2.9%1.1%0.4%
PITBailey
Falter
9.03.5414.8%6.8%2.8%1.1%0.4%
BALLance
McCullers
8.53.5214.5%6.7%2.8%1.0%0.3%
CLELogan
Gilbert
7.03.5214.5%6.7%2.8%1.0%0.3%
STLSpencer
Strider
7.53.5114.4%6.6%2.7%1.0%0.3%
SEAShane
Bieber
7.03.4814.0%6.4%2.6%1.0%0.3%
CHCFreddy
Peralta
7.53.4113.1%5.9%2.3%0.8%0.3%
OAKGerrit
Cole
7.02.877.1%2.7%0.9%0.3%0.1%
COLChris
Bassitt
7.52.796.4%2.4%0.8%0.2%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Gerrit
Cole
OAK7.292.7%84.2%72.0%57.5%42.7%29.3%18.7%
Chris
Bassitt
COL7.292.6%84.1%71.9%57.4%42.5%29.2%18.6%
Shane
Bieber
SEA6.588.8%77.6%63.1%47.3%32.7%20.8%12.3%
Freddy
Peralta
CHC6.186.0%73.2%57.5%41.5%27.4%16.6%9.3%
Spencer
Strider
STL6.185.6%72.6%56.7%40.7%26.7%16.1%9.0%
Joe
Musgrove
KC5.983.5%69.4%53.0%37.0%23.6%13.8%7.4%
Lance
McCullers
BAL5.782.3%67.7%51.0%35.0%22.0%12.6%6.7%
Jose
Quintana
ATL5.479.0%63.1%45.9%30.3%18.2%10.0%5.0%
J.T.
Chargois
BOS5.378.0%61.7%44.3%28.9%17.1%9.3%4.6%
Tyler
Anderson
MIA5.377.2%60.7%43.3%28.0%16.4%8.8%4.3%
Justin
Steele
MIL5.276.7%60.1%42.6%27.4%16.0%8.5%4.1%
Joe
Ryan
SF5.175.4%58.4%40.9%25.9%14.8%7.8%3.7%
Logan
Gilbert
CLE4.972.6%54.9%37.4%22.9%12.7%6.4%3.0%
Reid
Detmers
TOR4.971.9%54.0%36.5%22.2%12.2%6.1%2.8%
Johnny
Cueto
ARI4.971.5%53.5%35.9%21.8%11.9%5.9%2.7%
Alex
Wood
MIN4.871.2%53.1%35.6%21.5%11.7%5.8%2.6%
Cade
Cavalli
CIN4.871.2%53.1%35.6%21.5%11.7%5.8%2.6%
Trevor
Rogers
LAD4.870.4%52.2%34.7%20.8%11.2%5.5%2.5%
Bailey
Falter
PIT4.870.0%51.6%34.2%20.4%11.0%5.4%2.4%
Mike
Minor
WSH4.565.8%46.8%29.7%16.9%8.7%4.0%1.7%
Michael
Wacha
TB4.463.2%43.9%27.2%15.0%7.5%3.4%1.4%
Mitch
White
LAA4.362.1%42.8%26.2%14.3%7.0%3.1%1.3%
Kyle
Bradish
HOU4.260.8%41.4%25.0%13.5%6.5%2.9%1.1%
Kris
Bubic
SD4.259.7%40.2%24.0%12.8%6.1%2.7%1.0%
Glenn
Otto
DET4.158.2%38.7%22.7%11.9%5.6%2.4%0.9%
Chad
Kuhl
NYM3.954.1%34.6%19.5%9.8%4.4%1.8%0.7%
Tommy
Henry
CHW3.852.7%33.2%18.4%9.1%4.0%1.6%0.6%
Tyler
Alexander
TEX3.749.7%30.5%16.4%7.8%3.3%1.3%0.5%
JP
Sears
NYY3.648.1%29.0%15.3%7.2%3.0%1.1%0.4%
Bryse
Wilson
PHI3.341.7%23.6%11.6%5.0%1.9%0.7%0.2%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Rhys
Hoskins
PHINo110Bryse
Wilson
27.0%+270
Kyle
Schwarber
PHIYes106Bryse
Wilson
26.8%+275
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLNo91Spencer
Strider
24.4%+310
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUYes102Kyle
Bradish
23.5%+325
Hunter
Renfroe
MILYes103Justin
Steele
23.4%+330
Alex
Bregman
HOUNo101Kyle
Bradish
23.0%+335
Luke
Voit
WSHYes106Mike
Minor
22.8%+340
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORYes101Reid
Detmers
22.6%+345
Pete
Alonso
NYMNo98Chad
Kuhl
22.5%+345
Aaron
Judge
NYYYes94JP
Sears
22.4%+345
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes110Bailey
Falter
22.2%+350
C.J.
Cron
COLNo98Chris
Bassitt
21.6%+365
Anthony
Santander
BALYes102Lance
McCullers
21.5%+365
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORYes101Reid
Detmers
21.5%+365
Giancarlo
Stanton
NYYYes94JP
Sears
21.4%+365
J.T.
Realmuto
PHINo110Bryse
Wilson
21.2%+370
Jeremy
Pena
HOUNo101Kyle
Bradish
21.0%+375
Matt
Chapman
TORYes101Reid
Detmers
20.9%+380
Jake
Fraley
CINYes104Cade
Cavalli
20.7%+385
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWYes106Tommy
Henry
20.5%+390
Mookie
Betts
LADYes90Trevor
Rogers
20.3%+395
Willy
Adames
MILYes103Justin
Steele
20.1%+400
Joc
Pederson
SFYes99Joe
Ryan
20.0%+400
Bryce
Harper
PHIYes106Bryse
Wilson
19.9%+405
Chas
McCormick
HOUNo101Kyle
Bradish
19.4%+415
Evan
Longoria
SFNo98Joe
Ryan
18.9%+430
William
Contreras
ATLYes91Jose
Quintana
18.8%+430
Joey
Meneses
WSHYes106Mike
Minor
18.6%+435
Salvador
Perez
KCNo92Joe
Musgrove
18.6%+440
Manny
Machado
SDYes92Kris
Bubic
18.4%+445
Brandon
Drury
SDYes92Kris
Bubic
18.4%+445
Carlos
Correa
MINYes98Alex
Wood
18.1%+450
Shohei
Ohtani
LAAYes94Mitch
White
18.1%+450
Trea
Turner
LADYes90Trevor
Rogers
18.1%+450
Jose
Abreu
CHWYes106Tommy
Henry
18.0%+455
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes96Logan
Gilbert
17.8%+460
Luis
Urias
MILYes103Justin
Steele
17.6%+470
Eugenio
Suarez
SEANo99Shane
Bieber
17.4%+475
Mitch
Haniger
SEANo99Shane
Bieber
17.4%+475
Andrew
McCutchen
MILYes103Justin
Steele
16.9%+490
Rafael
Devers
BOSYes93J.T.
Chargois
16.8%+495
Starling
Marte
NYMNo98Chad
Kuhl
16.6%+500
Marcell
Ozuna
ATLYes91Jose
Quintana
16.5%+505
Mike
Moustakas
CINYes104Cade
Cavalli
16.5%+505
Christian
Walker
ARINo106Johnny
Cueto
16.4%+510
Jesus
Aguilar
MIAYes90Tyler
Anderson
16.4%+510
Josh
Donaldson
NYYYes94JP
Sears
16.3%+510
Jose
Miranda
MINYes98Alex
Wood
16.3%+515
Kyle
Tucker
HOUYes102Kyle
Bradish
16.2%+515
Nolan
Gorman
STLYes97Spencer
Strider
16.2%+515
Eloy
Jimenez
CHWYes106Tommy
Henry
15.9%+530
Luis
Robert
CHWYes106Tommy
Henry
15.9%+530
Mike
Yastrzemski
SFYes99Joe
Ryan
15.8%+530
Jose
Altuve
HOUNo101Kyle
Bradish
15.8%+535
Taylor
Ward
LAANo101Mitch
White
15.8%+535
Will
Smith
LADYes90Trevor
Rogers
15.8%+535
Donovan
Solano
CINNo106Cade
Cavalli
15.7%+535
Jose
Trevino
NYYYes94JP
Sears
15.7%+535
Shea
Langeliers
OAKNo94Gerrit
Cole
15.5%+545
Josh
Bell
SDYes92Kris
Bubic
15.4%+545
Daulton
Varsho
ARIYes111Johnny
Cueto
15.2%+555
A.J.
Pollock
CHWYes106Tommy
Henry
15.2%+560
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALNo101Lance
McCullers
15.1%+560
Brandon
Lowe
TBYes93Michael
Wacha
15.0%+565
Rowdy
Tellez
MILNo101Justin
Steele
15.0%+565
Freddie
Freeman
LADNo92Trevor
Rogers
14.9%+570
Jorge
Polanco
MINYes98Alex
Wood
14.9%+570
Joey
Bart
SFNo98Joe
Ryan
14.8%+575
Seiya
Suzuki
CHCNo103Freddy
Peralta
14.7%+580
Austin
Riley
ATLYes91Jose
Quintana
14.7%+580
Chris
Taylor
LADYes90Trevor
Rogers
14.5%+590
Adolis
Garcia
TEXYes95Tyler
Alexander
14.5%+590
Mike
Trout
LAANo101Mitch
White
14.5%+590
Max
Muncy
LADNo92Trevor
Rogers
14.4%+595
J.D.
Martinez
BOSNo99J.T.
Chargois
14.2%+600
Wilmer
Flores
SFNo98Joe
Ryan
14.1%+610
Alec
Bohm
PHINo110Bryse
Wilson
14.1%+610
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCNo92Joe
Musgrove
14.0%+615
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes95Tyler
Alexander
13.9%+620
LaMonte
Wade
Jr
SFYes99Joe
Ryan
13.8%+620
Oneil
Cruz
PITNo106Bailey
Falter
13.8%+625
Trey
Mancini
HOUNo101Kyle
Bradish
13.8%+625
David
Peralta
TBYes93Michael
Wacha
13.8%+625
Gleyber
Torres
NYYYes94JP
Sears
13.7%+625
Jonathan
India
CINNo106Cade
Cavalli
13.7%+630
MJ
Melendez
KCYes92Joe
Musgrove
13.7%+630
Gio
Urshela
MINYes98Alex
Wood
13.5%+640
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes102Lance
McCullers
13.5%+640
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYNo92JP
Sears
13.4%+650
Nolan
Arenado
STLNo91Spencer
Strider
13.3%+655
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes94Mitch
White
13.3%+655
Bo
Bichette
TORYes101Reid
Detmers
13.1%+660
Austin
Hays
BALNo101Lance
McCullers
13.1%+660
Seth
Brown
OAKYes92Gerrit
Cole
13.0%+670
Lars
Nootbaar
STLYes97Spencer
Strider
12.9%+675
Randy
Arozarena
TBNo99Michael
Wacha
12.9%+675
Josh
Naylor
CLEYes96Logan
Gilbert
12.8%+680
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes96Logan
Gilbert
12.8%+680
Cody
Bellinger
LADNo92Trevor
Rogers
12.8%+680
Dansby
Swanson
ATLYes91Jose
Quintana
12.7%+685
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes95Chad
Kuhl
12.7%+685
Riley
Greene
DETYes101Glenn
Otto
12.7%+690
Franmil
Reyes
CHCNo103Freddy
Peralta
12.6%+690
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCNo103Freddy
Peralta
12.6%+690
Bryson
Stott
PHIYes106Bryse
Wilson
12.4%+705
Juan
Soto
SDNo92Kris
Bubic
12.3%+715
Matt
Olson
ATLNo97Jose
Quintana
12.3%+715
Ketel
Marte
ARIYes111Johnny
Cueto
12.2%+725
Carlos
Santana
SEAYes96Shane
Bieber
12.1%+725
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes96Shane
Bieber
12.1%+725
Cesar
Hernandez
WSHYes106Mike
Minor
12.1%+725
Lane
Thomas
WSHYes106Mike
Minor
12.1%+725
Thairo
Estrada
SFNo98Joe
Ryan
12.1%+725
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXNo101Tyler
Alexander
12.1%+730
Jared
Walsh
LAAYes94Mitch
White
11.9%+740
Tyrone
Taylor
MILYes103Justin
Steele
11.8%+745
Nick
Maton
PHIYes106Bryse
Wilson
11.7%+755
Sean
Murphy
OAKNo94Gerrit
Cole
11.7%+755
Michael
Harris
II
ATLNo97Jose
Quintana
11.7%+755
Alejandro
Kirk
TORYes101Reid
Detmers
11.6%+760
Amed
Rosario
CLENo99Logan
Gilbert
11.5%+770
Corey
Seager
TEXNo101Tyler
Alexander
11.5%+770
Jorge
Alfaro
SDYes92Kris
Bubic
11.4%+775
Ryan
McMahon
COLYes95Chris
Bassitt
11.3%+785
Nelson
Cruz
WSHYes106Mike
Minor
11.3%+785
Nick
Fortes
MIAYes90Tyler
Anderson
11.2%+790
Willi
Castro
DETYes101Glenn
Otto
11.2%+795
Nelson
Velazquez
CHCNo103Freddy
Peralta
11.2%+795
Ji-Man
Choi
TBYes93Michael
Wacha
11.1%+800
Marcus
Semien
TEXYes95Tyler
Alexander
11.0%+805
Martin
Maldonado
HOUNo101Kyle
Bradish
11.0%+810
Ramon
Urias
BALNo101Lance
McCullers
11.0%+810
Lourdes
Gurriel
TORYes101Reid
Detmers
10.8%+820
Julio
Rodriguez
SEANo99Shane
Bieber
10.8%+830
Oscar
Gonzalez
CLENo99Logan
Gilbert
10.8%+830
Randal
Grichuk
COLNo98Chris
Bassitt
10.7%+835
Elias
Diaz
COLNo98Chris
Bassitt
10.7%+835
Elehuris
Montero
COLNo98Chris
Bassitt
10.7%+835
Carson
Kelly
ARINo106Johnny
Cueto
10.7%+835
Emmanuel
Rivera
ARINo106Johnny
Cueto
10.7%+835
Jeimer
Candelario
DETYes101Glenn
Otto
10.4%+860
Ian
Happ
CHCYes101Freddy
Peralta
10.4%+860
Nico
Hoerner
CHCNo103Freddy
Peralta
10.4%+860
Brandon
Crawford
SFYes99Joe
Ryan
10.3%+875
Jorge
Mateo
BALNo101Lance
McCullers
10.2%+880
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSNo99J.T.
Chargois
10.0%+895
Myles
Straw
CLENo99Logan
Gilbert
10.0%+895
Ty
France
SEANo99Shane
Bieber
10.0%+895
Tyler
O'Neill
STLNo91Spencer
Strider
10.0%+900
Jurickson
Profar
SDYes92Kris
Bubic
10.0%+900
Kyle
Farmer
CINNo106Cade
Cavalli
9.9%+910
Rougned
Odor
BALYes102Lance
McCullers
9.7%+925
Kerry
Carpenter
DETYes101Glenn
Otto
9.7%+935
Jake
McCarthy
ARIYes111Johnny
Cueto
9.7%+935
P.J.
Higgins
CHCNo103Freddy
Peralta
9.6%+940
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes106Tommy
Henry
9.6%+940
Riley
Adams
WSHYes106Mike
Minor
9.6%+940
Mark
Mathias
TEXYes95Tyler
Alexander
9.5%+950
Jo
Adell
LAANo101Mitch
White
9.5%+955
Nick
Castellanos
PHINo110Bryse
Wilson
9.4%+965
Bobby
Dalbec
BOSNo99J.T.
Chargois
9.3%+975
Tucupita
Marcano
PITNo106Bailey
Falter
9.3%+980
Santiago
Espinal
TORYes101Reid
Detmers
9.2%+985
Darin
Ruf
NYMNo98Chad
Kuhl
9.2%+985
Sergio
Alcantara
ARIYes111Johnny
Cueto
8.8%+1040
Josh
Harrison
CHWYes106Tommy
Henry
8.8%+1040
Ildemaro
Vargas
WSHYes106Mike
Minor
8.8%+1040
Seby
Zavala
CHWYes106Tommy
Henry
8.8%+1040
Hunter
Dozier
KCNo92Joe
Musgrove
8.7%+1050
Jesse
Winker
SEAYes96Shane
Bieber
8.5%+1080
Brendan
Rodgers
COLNo98Chris
Bassitt
8.5%+1085
Vaughn
Grissom
ATLYes91Jose
Quintana
8.4%+1090
Jeff
McNeil
NYMYes95Chad
Kuhl
8.4%+1090
Sam
Hilliard
COLYes95Chris
Bassitt
8.4%+1090
Whit
Merrifield
TORYes101Reid
Detmers
8.4%+1095
Justin
Turner
LADYes90Trevor
Rogers
8.3%+1105
TJ
Friedl
CINYes104Cade
Cavalli
8.3%+1110
Francisco
Mejia
TBYes93Michael
Wacha
8.2%+1115
Javier
Baez
DETNo95Glenn
Otto
8.2%+1115
Nick
Pratto
KCYes92Joe
Musgrove
8.1%+1125
Max
Kepler
MINNo99Alex
Wood
8.1%+1140
Tommy
La
Stella
SFYes99Joe
Ryan
7.9%+1165
Josh
Rojas
ARIYes111Johnny
Cueto
7.9%+1165
Alek
Thomas
ARIYes111Johnny
Cueto
7.9%+1165
Elvis
Andrus
CHWYes106Tommy
Henry
7.9%+1170
Tommy
Pham
BOSNo99J.T.
Chargois
7.7%+1190
Austin
Hedges
CLENo99Logan
Gilbert
7.7%+1190
Yandy
Diaz
TBNo99Michael
Wacha
7.7%+1190
Charlie
Blackmon
COLYes95Chris
Bassitt
7.6%+1210
Brandon
Nimmo
NYMYes95Chad
Kuhl
7.6%+1210
Taylor
Walls
TBYes93Michael
Wacha
7.5%+1240
Jose
Barrero
CINNo106Cade
Cavalli
7.4%+1250
Nick
Gordon
MINNo99Alex
Wood
7.4%+1255
Harold
Castro
DETYes101Glenn
Otto
7.2%+1280
Akil
Baddoo
DETYes101Glenn
Otto
7.2%+1280
Christopher
Morel
CHCNo103Freddy
Peralta
7.2%+1285
Ke'Bryan
Hayes
PITYes110Bailey
Falter
7.2%+1290
Rodolfo
Castro
PITYes110Bailey
Falter
7.2%+1290

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