FanDuel Pitching Primer: Thursday 8/25/22
In daily fantasy baseball, success starts with nailing the starting pitcher spot in your lineup.
When compared to hitters, pitching performance tends to be much more predictable and stable throughout the course of the season. You know what you're getting from a top-level ace when you roster him: probably a dominant effort with only one or two implosions per season. In contrast, even the game's best hitters have days at the plate where they go 0-for-4.
As a result, lineup construction should begin with the starting pitcher. Which pitchers should you consider on today's main slate?
High-Salary Play
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
Vs Cincinnati Reds
FanDuel Salary: $10,800
On a smaller main slate, Aaron Nola of the Philadelphia Phillies just makes too much sense on Thursday evening.
While many folks may opt for the sexier Jacob deGrom, deGrom's matchup against a Colorado Rockies offense (ninth in team wOBA) is far more challenging, and deGrom is a whopping $12,500 today.
The same can't be said for Nola, who faces a Cincinnati Reds squad that clocks in eighth-worst in team wOBA (.304), ninth-worst in isolated power (ISO, .138), and has the fifth-highest strikeout rate (24.2%).
Nola has been outstanding this year. In 157 2/3 innings pitched, he's recorded a 2.77 FIP, 24.6% K-BB% walk rate, and he's limited homers to 0.91 HR/9. He is in as our number-two projected hurler on the day, but given the salaries, Nola is my pick over deGrom.
Mid-Range Play
Jameson Taillon, New York Yankees
At Oakland Athletics
FanDuel Salary: $9,400
The Oakland Athletics certainly aren't contenders this season, and part of their struggles can be tied to their unbelievable challenges at the plate. They rank second-worst in team wOBA (.276), fourth-worst in ISO (.127), and are just outside the bottom 10 teams in strikeout rate (23.1%).
With rotation-mate Nestor Cortes hitting the Injured List and Jordan Montgomery recently traded, Jameson Taillon is going to be needed big time right now. Taillon has excelled in 32 1/3 innings pitched in the second half, posting a 3.77 FIP and a 23.3% strikeout rate.
We project the right-hander for 30.9 FanDuel points, and against a poor Athletics offense, he could push for more.
Value Play
Lance Lynn, Chicago White Sox
At Baltimore Orioles
FanDuel Salary: $9,100
Maybe I'm the last dude on the Lance Lynn train, but he's been downright brilliant as of late. I am here for a great matchup against the Baltimore Orioles in Baltimore tonight.
After years of playing as one of the most homer-happy parks, Camden Yards underwent some adjustments for 2022, and it now ranks as one of the toughest parks to hit a bomb in, according to ESPN's park factors.
Let's pair that with an Orioles offense that isn't exactly cookin' at the dish. The O's rank 20th in team wOBA (.303), 18th in strikeout rate (23.0%), and 13th in team ISO (.154).
Things have clicked for Lynn in the second half of the season, as he's limited batters to a .285 wOBA while recording a 2.73 FIP and 28.6% strikeout rate. If you need to save some salary, Lynn makes a ton of sense.
Matt Kupferle is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Matt Kupferle also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username MKupferle. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
