MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Thursday 8/25/22
Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?
To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.
Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at FanDuel Sportsbook.
(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)
Team Run Total Projections
| Team | Opp SP | O/U | Implied Total |
5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Justin Dunn | 8.5 | 5.34 | 44.3% | 28.9% | 17.1% | 9.3% | 4.6% |
| TOR | Kutter Crawford | 9.0 | 4.94 | 37.4% | 22.9% | 12.7% | 6.4% | 3.0% |
| HOU | Chris Archer | 8.5 | 4.75 | 34.0% | 20.2% | 10.9% | 5.3% | 2.4% |
| NYM | Ryan Feltner | 7.0 | 4.60 | 31.4% | 18.2% | 9.5% | 4.5% | 2.0% |
| NYY | James Kaprielian | 7.5 | 4.39 | 27.8% | 15.5% | 7.8% | 3.5% | 1.5% |
| CHW | Jordan Lyles | 8.5 | 4.35 | 27.2% | 15.0% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| BAL | Lance Lynn | 8.5 | 4.15 | 23.9% | 12.7% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| BOS | Kevin Gausman | 9.0 | 4.06 | 22.4% | 11.7% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| TB | Patrick Sandoval | 7.0 | 3.89 | 19.8% | 10.0% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| CLE | Marco Gonzales | 7.5 | 3.84 | 19.0% | 9.5% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| MIN | Luis Garcia | 8.5 | 3.75 | 17.7% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| SEA | Triston McKenzie | 7.5 | 3.66 | 16.4% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| CIN | Aaron Nola | 8.5 | 3.16 | 10.1% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| LAA | Drew Rasmussen | 7.0 | 3.11 | 9.5% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| OAK | Jameson Taillon | 7.5 | 3.11 | 9.5% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| COL | Jacob deGrom | 7.0 | 2.40 | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
| Pitcher | Opp | K Proj |
3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | CIN | 7.9 | 95.3% | 89.1% | 79.5% | 66.8% | 52.6% | 38.7% | 26.5% |
| Jacob deGrom | COL | 7.8 | 95.2% | 88.8% | 79.0% | 66.2% | 51.9% | 38.0% | 25.9% |
| Kevin Gausman | BOS | 6.5 | 89.0% | 77.9% | 63.4% | 47.7% | 33.0% | 21.1% | 12.4% |
| Luis Garcia | MIN | 5.7 | 82.1% | 67.4% | 50.7% | 34.7% | 21.7% | 12.4% | 6.5% |
| Triston McKenzie | SEA | 5.6 | 81.3% | 66.2% | 49.3% | 33.4% | 20.7% | 11.7% | 6.1% |
| Lance Lynn | BAL | 5.3 | 77.1% | 60.6% | 43.1% | 27.8% | 16.3% | 8.7% | 4.3% |
| Patrick Sandoval | TB | 5.2 | 76.7% | 60.1% | 42.6% | 27.4% | 16.0% | 8.5% | 4.1% |
| Jameson Taillon | OAK | 5.1 | 74.7% | 57.5% | 40.0% | 25.1% | 14.3% | 7.4% | 3.5% |
| Drew Rasmussen | LAA | 5.0 | 73.2% | 55.6% | 38.1% | 23.5% | 13.1% | 6.7% | 3.1% |
| Marco Gonzales | CLE | 4.8 | 69.8% | 51.5% | 34.0% | 20.2% | 10.9% | 5.3% | 2.4% |
| Marcus Stroman | STL | 4.7 | 69.0% | 50.5% | 33.2% | 19.5% | 10.4% | 5.0% | 2.2% |
| Jordan Lyles | CHW | 4.6 | 67.1% | 48.3% | 31.1% | 17.9% | 9.3% | 4.4% | 1.9% |
| Kutter Crawford | TOR | 4.4 | 63.7% | 44.5% | 27.7% | 15.4% | 7.7% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| James Kaprielian | NYY | 4.3 | 62.1% | 42.8% | 26.2% | 14.3% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 1.3% |
| Dakota Hudson | CHC | 3.8 | 53.1% | 33.6% | 18.7% | 9.3% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Chris Archer | HOU | 3.7 | 51.4% | 32.1% | 17.6% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Ryan Feltner | NYM | 3.7 | 50.2% | 30.9% | 16.7% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Justin Dunn | PHI | 3.3 | 42.8% | 24.5% | 12.2% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
Daily Batter Home Run Projections
You can view all MLB game and prop odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.
| Batter | Team | Split Adv? |
HR PF |
Opp SP |
HR Prob% |
xHR Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | Yes | 106 | Justin Dunn | 27.2% | +265 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | No | 99 | Kutter Crawford | 26.5% | +275 |
| Teoscar Hernandez | TOR | No | 99 | Kutter Crawford | 26.2% | +280 |
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | Yes | 102 | Chris Archer | 25.4% | +295 |
| Aaron Judge | NYY | No | 94 | James Kaprielian | 25.3% | +295 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | NYY | No | 94 | James Kaprielian | 24.9% | +300 |
| Rhys Hoskins | PHI | No | 110 | Justin Dunn | 24.8% | +305 |
| Nolan Arenado | STL | No | 103 | Marcus Stroman | 22.3% | +350 |
| George Springer | TOR | No | 99 | Kutter Crawford | 22.2% | +350 |
| Matt Chapman | TOR | No | 99 | Kutter Crawford | 22.2% | +350 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | STL | No | 103 | Marcus Stroman | 21.3% | +370 |
| Pete Alonso | NYM | No | 98 | Ryan Feltner | 21.1% | +375 |
| Jorge Polanco | MIN | Yes | 102 | Luis Garcia | 21.0% | +375 |
| Jose Ramirez | CLE | Yes | 99 | Marco Gonzales | 20.6% | +385 |
| Anthony Rizzo | NYY | Yes | 92 | James Kaprielian | 20.5% | +390 |
| Gleyber Torres | NYY | No | 94 | James Kaprielian | 20.4% | +390 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | BAL | No | 112 | Lance Lynn | 20.3% | +390 |
| Bo Bichette | TOR | No | 99 | Kutter Crawford | 20.2% | +395 |
| Jose Abreu | CHW | No | 112 | Jordan Lyles | 19.7% | +405 |
| Ramon Urias | BAL | No | 112 | Lance Lynn | 19.7% | +405 |
| Eugenio Suarez | SEA | No | 99 | Triston McKenzie | 19.6% | +410 |
| Dan Vogelbach | NYM | Yes | 95 | Ryan Feltner | 19.4% | +415 |
| Patrick Wisdom | CHC | No | 103 | Dakota Hudson | 19.1% | +425 |
| Mitch Haniger | SEA | No | 99 | Triston McKenzie | 19.1% | +425 |
| Paul DeJong | STL | No | 103 | Marcus Stroman | 18.5% | +440 |
| C.J. Cron | COL | No | 98 | Jacob deGrom | 18.4% | +445 |
| Jose Altuve | HOU | No | 101 | Chris Archer | 18.2% | +450 |
| Carlos Correa | MIN | No | 101 | Luis Garcia | 17.6% | +465 |
| Bryson Stott | PHI | Yes | 106 | Justin Dunn | 17.4% | +475 |
| Willson Contreras | CHC | No | 103 | Dakota Hudson | 17.3% | +480 |
| Mike Trout | LAA | No | 94 | Drew Rasmussen | 17.2% | +480 |
| Anthony Santander | BAL | Yes | 110 | Lance Lynn | 17.2% | +480 |
| Chas McCormick | HOU | No | 101 | Chris Archer | 17.0% | +485 |
| J.T. Realmuto | PHI | No | 110 | Justin Dunn | 16.9% | +490 |
| Ty France | SEA | No | 99 | Triston McKenzie | 16.8% | +495 |
| Franmil Reyes | CHC | No | 103 | Dakota Hudson | 16.7% | +500 |
| Lars Nootbaar | STL | Yes | 96 | Marcus Stroman | 16.7% | +500 |
| Nolan Gorman | STL | Yes | 96 | Marcus Stroman | 16.7% | +500 |
| Starling Marte | NYM | No | 98 | Ryan Feltner | 16.6% | +500 |
| Rafael Devers | BOS | Yes | 93 | Kevin Gausman | 16.3% | +515 |
| Julio Rodriguez | SEA | No | 99 | Triston McKenzie | 16.2% | +520 |
| Cal Raleigh | SEA | Yes | 96 | Triston McKenzie | 16.1% | +525 |
| Cedric Mullins | BAL | Yes | 110 | Lance Lynn | 15.8% | +530 |
| Trey Mancini | HOU | No | 101 | Chris Archer | 15.8% | +535 |
| Jake Fraley | CIN | Yes | 106 | Aaron Nola | 15.4% | +550 |
| Alex Bregman | HOU | No | 101 | Chris Archer | 15.1% | +560 |
| Oscar Gonzalez | CLE | Yes | 99 | Marco Gonzales | 15.0% | +565 |
| Luis Robert | CHW | No | 112 | Jordan Lyles | 15.0% | +565 |
| Josh Naylor | CLE | No | 96 | Marco Gonzales | 14.9% | +570 |
| Sean Murphy | OAK | No | 94 | Jameson Taillon | 14.9% | +570 |
| Adley Rutschman | BAL | Yes | 110 | Lance Lynn | 14.4% | +595 |
| Eloy Jimenez | CHW | No | 112 | Jordan Lyles | 14.3% | +600 |
| Andrew Vaughn | CHW | No | 112 | Jordan Lyles | 14.3% | +600 |
| Seth Brown | OAK | Yes | 92 | Jameson Taillon | 14.3% | +600 |
| Josh Donaldson | NYY | No | 94 | James Kaprielian | 14.3% | +600 |
| Enrique Hernandez | BOS | No | 99 | Kevin Gausman | 14.2% | +600 |
| Alejandro Kirk | TOR | No | 99 | Kutter Crawford | 14.2% | +600 |
| Kyle Tucker | HOU | Yes | 102 | Chris Archer | 14.2% | +605 |
| Jeremy Pena | HOU | No | 101 | Chris Archer | 13.8% | +625 |
| Taylor Ward | LAA | No | 94 | Drew Rasmussen | 13.6% | +635 |
| Francisco Lindor | NYM | Yes | 95 | Ryan Feltner | 13.4% | +650 |
| Nick Castellanos | PHI | No | 110 | Justin Dunn | 13.4% | +650 |
| Isaac Paredes | TB | Yes | 94 | Patrick Sandoval | 13.1% | +665 |
| Shohei Ohtani | LAA | Yes | 92 | Drew Rasmussen | 13.0% | +670 |
| A.J. Pollock | CHW | No | 112 | Jordan Lyles | 12.8% | +680 |
| Austin Hays | BAL | No | 112 | Lance Lynn | 12.8% | +680 |
| Jorge Mateo | BAL | No | 112 | Lance Lynn | 12.8% | +680 |
| Nick Maton | PHI | Yes | 106 | Justin Dunn | 12.4% | +705 |
| Martin Maldonado | HOU | No | 101 | Chris Archer | 12.4% | +705 |
| Alec Bohm | PHI | No | 110 | Justin Dunn | 11.8% | +745 |
| Jonathan India | CIN | No | 110 | Aaron Nola | 11.8% | +745 |
| Franchy Cordero | BOS | Yes | 93 | Kevin Gausman | 11.8% | +745 |
| Gio Urshela | MIN | No | 101 | Luis Garcia | 11.7% | +755 |
| Carlos Santana | SEA | Yes | 96 | Triston McKenzie | 11.4% | +775 |
| Jesse Winker | SEA | Yes | 96 | Triston McKenzie | 11.4% | +775 |
| Mark Canha | NYM | No | 98 | Ryan Feltner | 11.4% | +775 |
| Luis Rengifo | LAA | Yes | 92 | Drew Rasmussen | 11.0% | +810 |
| Max Stassi | LAA | No | 94 | Drew Rasmussen | 11.0% | +810 |
| Jo Adell | LAA | No | 94 | Drew Rasmussen | 11.0% | +810 |
| Jose Miranda | MIN | No | 101 | Luis Garcia | 11.0% | +810 |
| Xander Bogaerts | BOS | No | 99 | Kevin Gausman | 10.8% | +830 |
| Tommy Pham | BOS | No | 99 | Kevin Gausman | 10.8% | +830 |
| Zach McKinstry | CHC | Yes | 96 | Dakota Hudson | 10.7% | +835 |
| Elias Diaz | COL | No | 98 | Jacob deGrom | 10.7% | +835 |
| Max Kepler | MIN | Yes | 102 | Luis Garcia | 10.5% | +850 |
| Andres Gimenez | CLE | No | 96 | Marco Gonzales | 10.4% | +865 |
| Santiago Espinal | TOR | No | 99 | Kutter Crawford | 10.0% | +895 |
| Randal Grichuk | COL | No | 98 | Jacob deGrom | 10.0% | +905 |
| Elehuris Montero | COL | No | 98 | Jacob deGrom | 10.0% | +905 |
| Ryan McMahon | COL | Yes | 95 | Jacob deGrom | 9.9% | +910 |
| Myles Straw | CLE | Yes | 99 | Marco Gonzales | 9.9% | +915 |
| Nick Madrigal | CHC | No | 103 | Dakota Hudson | 9.6% | +940 |
| Jared Walsh | LAA | Yes | 92 | Drew Rasmussen | 9.6% | +940 |
| Elvis Andrus | CHW | No | 112 | Jordan Lyles | 9.5% | +950 |
| Seby Zavala | CHW | No | 112 | Jordan Lyles | 9.5% | +950 |
| Randy Arozarena | TB | Yes | 94 | Patrick Sandoval | 9.4% | +960 |
| Kyle Farmer | CIN | No | 110 | Aaron Nola | 9.4% | +965 |
| Brandon Nimmo | NYM | Yes | 95 | Ryan Feltner | 9.1% | +995 |
| Amed Rosario | CLE | Yes | 99 | Marco Gonzales | 9.1% | +1005 |
| Jackie Bradley | TOR | Yes | 93 | Kutter Crawford | 9.0% | +1015 |
| DJ LeMahieu | NYY | No | 94 | James Kaprielian | 8.9% | +1025 |
| Shea Langeliers | OAK | No | 94 | Jameson Taillon | 8.9% | +1025 |
| Seiya Suzuki | CHC | No | 103 | Dakota Hudson | 8.8% | +1030 |
| Yoan Moncada | CHW | Yes | 110 | Jordan Lyles | 8.7% | +1050 |
| Yulieski Gurriel | HOU | No | 101 | Chris Archer | 8.7% | +1050 |
| Ian Happ | CHC | Yes | 96 | Dakota Hudson | 8.5% | +1080 |
| Dylan Carlson | STL | Yes | 96 | Marcus Stroman | 8.5% | +1080 |
| Nico Hoerner | CHC | No | 103 | Dakota Hudson | 8.0% | +1145 |
| Christopher Morel | CHC | No | 103 | Dakota Hudson | 8.0% | +1145 |
| Rougned Odor | BAL | Yes | 110 | Lance Lynn | 7.8% | +1180 |
| Josh Harrison | CHW | No | 112 | Jordan Lyles | 7.8% | +1185 |
| Lourdes Gurriel | TOR | No | 99 | Kutter Crawford | 7.7% | +1190 |
| Brendan Rodgers | COL | No | 98 | Jacob deGrom | 7.7% | +1205 |
| Jeff McNeil | NYM | Yes | 95 | Ryan Feltner | 7.6% | +1210 |
| Mike Moustakas | CIN | Yes | 106 | Aaron Nola | 7.6% | +1220 |
| Bradley Zimmer | PHI | Yes | 106 | Justin Dunn | 7.6% | +1220 |
| Skye Bolt | OAK | Yes | 92 | Jameson Taillon | 7.4% | +1250 |
| Luke Maile | CLE | Yes | 99 | Marco Gonzales | 7.4% | +1255 |
| Nick Gordon | MIN | Yes | 102 | Luis Garcia | 7.3% | +1270 |
| Yadier Molina | STL | No | 103 | Marcus Stroman | 7.2% | +1285 |
| Francisco Mejia | TB | Yes | 94 | Patrick Sandoval | 7.0% | +1320 |
| Harold Ramirez | TB | Yes | 94 | Patrick Sandoval | 7.0% | +1320 |
| J.D. Martinez | BOS | No | 99 | Kevin Gausman | 7.0% | +1340 |
| Tommy Edman | STL | Yes | 96 | Marcus Stroman | 6.9% | +1350 |
| Jose Iglesias | COL | No | 98 | Jacob deGrom | 6.9% | +1350 |
| Sam Hilliard | COL | Yes | 95 | Jacob deGrom | 6.8% | +1365 |
| Brett Baty | NYM | Yes | 95 | Ryan Feltner | 6.8% | +1365 |
| Andrew Benintendi | NYY | Yes | 92 | James Kaprielian | 6.6% | +1405 |
| Owen Miller | CLE | Yes | 99 | Marco Gonzales | 6.5% | +1430 |
