MLB
MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Tuesday 8/23/22
Betting MLB player props or playing daily fantasy baseball? See who is most likely to homer, rack up the most strikeouts, and score the most runs today.

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
COLDane
Dunning
11.05.6349.3%33.4%20.7%11.7%6.1%
TEXGerman
Marquez
11.05.3744.9%29.4%17.5%9.5%4.7%
TORJosh
Winckowski
9.55.1040.2%25.3%14.4%7.5%3.6%
HOUAaron
Sanchez
8.04.9537.5%23.1%12.8%6.5%3.0%
ATLJT
Brubaker
8.04.8435.6%21.5%11.7%5.8%2.6%
STLJavier
Assad
8.54.7934.7%20.8%11.2%5.5%2.5%
ARIJon
Heasley
9.04.6732.6%19.1%10.1%4.9%2.1%
STLAdrian
Sampson
9.04.6732.6%19.1%10.1%4.9%2.1%
PHINick
Lodolo
8.04.6632.5%19.0%10.0%4.8%2.1%
NYYTaijuan
Walker
8.54.4328.5%16.0%8.1%3.7%1.6%
BOSRoss
Stripling
9.54.4028.0%15.6%7.9%3.6%1.5%
SFDrew
Hutchison
7.54.4028.0%15.6%7.9%3.6%1.5%
CHCJake
Woodford
9.04.3326.8%14.8%7.3%3.3%1.3%
KCZach
Davies
9.04.3326.8%14.8%7.3%3.3%1.3%
SDAaron
Civale
8.04.3326.8%14.8%7.3%3.3%1.3%
SEAErick
Fedde
7.04.2325.2%13.6%6.6%2.9%1.2%
NYMFrankie
Montas
8.54.0722.6%11.8%5.5%2.4%0.9%
MIAZach
Logue
7.54.0622.4%11.7%5.5%2.3%0.9%
CHWAustin
Voth
7.53.9921.3%11.0%5.1%2.1%0.8%
TBJose
Suarez
7.03.9120.1%10.2%4.6%1.9%0.7%
LADCorbin
Burnes
7.03.7617.9%8.7%3.8%1.5%0.5%
CHCAdam
Wainwright
8.53.7117.1%8.3%3.6%1.4%0.5%
CLEMike
Clevinger
8.03.6716.6%7.9%3.4%1.3%0.5%
BALDylan
Cease
7.53.5114.4%6.6%2.7%1.0%0.3%
OAKPablo
Lopez
7.53.4413.5%6.1%2.4%0.9%0.3%
CINRanger
Suarez
8.03.3412.2%5.4%2.1%0.7%0.2%
MILTony
Gonsolin
7.03.2411.0%4.7%1.8%0.6%0.2%
PITMax
Fried
8.03.1610.1%4.2%1.6%0.5%0.2%
DETCarlos
Rodon
7.53.109.4%3.9%1.4%0.5%0.1%
LAACorey
Kluber
7.03.099.3%3.8%1.4%0.5%0.1%
MINJustin
Verlander
8.03.058.9%3.6%1.3%0.4%0.1%
WSHRobbie
Ray
7.02.776.3%2.3%0.8%0.2%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Dylan
Cease
BAL7.192.3%83.5%71.1%56.4%41.5%28.3%17.9%
Corbin
Burnes
LAD6.890.6%80.6%67.0%51.7%36.9%24.3%14.8%
Robbie
Ray
WSH6.790.1%79.7%65.8%50.3%35.5%23.1%14.0%
Carlos
Rodon
DET6.689.5%78.8%64.7%49.1%34.3%22.2%13.2%
Justin
Verlander
MIN5.883.3%69.2%52.7%36.6%23.3%13.6%7.3%
Tony
Gonsolin
MIL5.882.6%68.2%51.5%35.5%22.4%12.9%6.8%
Nick
Lodolo
PHI5.781.9%67.1%50.3%34.4%21.5%12.2%6.4%
Frankie
Montas
NYM5.681.4%66.4%49.5%33.6%20.8%11.8%6.1%
Adam
Wainwright
CHC5.579.6%63.9%46.8%31.1%18.8%10.4%5.3%
Max
Fried
PIT5.478.9%63.0%45.7%30.1%18.1%9.9%5.0%
Corey
Kluber
LAA5.377.1%60.6%43.1%27.8%16.3%8.7%4.3%
Mike
Clevinger
CLE5.174.7%57.5%40.0%25.1%14.3%7.4%3.5%
JT
Brubaker
ATL5.073.6%56.1%38.6%23.9%13.4%6.9%3.2%
Ranger
Suarez
CIN5.073.1%55.4%37.9%23.3%13.0%6.6%3.1%
Pablo
Lopez
OAK4.971.5%53.5%35.9%21.8%11.9%5.9%2.7%
German
Marquez
TEX4.769.5%51.1%33.7%19.9%10.7%5.2%2.3%
Taijuan
Walker
NYY4.666.8%47.9%30.7%17.7%9.2%4.3%1.9%
Aaron
Civale
SD4.463.4%44.1%27.3%15.1%7.6%3.4%1.4%
Austin
Voth
CHW4.261.2%41.8%25.3%13.7%6.7%2.9%1.2%
Adrian
Sampson
STL4.259.7%40.2%24.0%12.8%6.1%2.7%1.0%
Jose
Suarez
TB4.159.2%39.7%23.6%12.5%5.9%2.5%1.0%
Ross
Stripling
BOS4.158.4%38.9%22.9%12.0%5.7%2.4%0.9%
Drew
Hutchison
SF4.157.8%38.3%22.4%11.7%5.5%2.3%0.9%
Zach
Davies
KC3.852.9%33.4%18.6%9.2%4.1%1.6%0.6%
Dane
Dunning
COL3.852.7%33.2%18.4%9.1%4.0%1.6%0.6%
Erick
Fedde
SEA3.852.0%32.6%18.0%8.8%3.9%1.5%0.5%
Zach
Logue
MIA3.648.5%29.4%15.6%7.3%3.1%1.2%0.4%
Aaron
Sanchez
HOU3.648.1%29.0%15.3%7.2%3.0%1.1%0.4%
Jon
Heasley
ARI3.444.2%25.6%12.9%5.8%2.3%0.8%0.3%
Josh
Winckowski
TOR3.342.2%23.9%11.8%5.2%2.0%0.7%0.2%
Javier
Assad
STL2.421.3%9.1%3.3%1.1%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Jake
Woodford
CHC1.912.0%4.2%1.2%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLNo103Javier
Assad
28.6%+250
Nolan
Arenado
STLNo103Javier
Assad
26.8%+275
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLNo103Adrian
Sampson
26.4%+280
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORNo99Josh
Winckowski
26.2%+280
Corey
Seager
TEXYes109German
Marquez
26.0%+285
George
Springer
TORNo99Josh
Winckowski
25.4%+295
Nolan
Arenado
STLNo103Adrian
Sampson
23.8%+320
Rowdy
Tellez
MILYes102Tony
Gonsolin
23.5%+325
Hunter
Renfroe
MILNo107Tony
Gonsolin
23.4%+325
Austin
Riley
ATLNo92JT
Brubaker
23.3%+330
Willson
Contreras
CHCNo103Adam
Wainwright
23.3%+330
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALNo112Dylan
Cease
23.1%+330
Matt
Chapman
TORNo99Josh
Winckowski
22.7%+340
Mookie
Betts
LADNo107Corbin
Burnes
21.9%+355
Joc
Pederson
SFYes94Drew
Hutchison
21.8%+360
Eugenio
Suarez
SEANo99Erick
Fedde
21.7%+360
Anthony
Santander
BALYes110Dylan
Cease
21.6%+365
Willson
Contreras
CHCNo103Jake
Woodford
21.3%+370
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORNo99Josh
Winckowski
21.2%+370
Rhys
Hoskins
PHIYes110Nick
Lodolo
21.1%+375
Franmil
Reyes
CHCNo103Adam
Wainwright
20.8%+380
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUYes102Aaron
Sanchez
20.4%+390
Marcus
Semien
TEXNo108German
Marquez
20.4%+390
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes96Erick
Fedde
20.1%+400
Mike
Trout
LAANo94Corey
Kluber
19.9%+400
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo112Austin
Voth
19.7%+405
J.T.
Realmuto
PHIYes110Nick
Lodolo
19.2%+420
Pete
Alonso
NYMNo103Frankie
Montas
19.1%+425
Mitch
Haniger
SEANo99Erick
Fedde
19.1%+425
Nolan
Gorman
STLYes96Javier
Assad
19.0%+425
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes95Mike
Clevinger
18.8%+430
Jose
Altuve
HOUNo101Aaron
Sanchez
18.8%+430
Freddie
Freeman
LADYes102Corbin
Burnes
18.7%+435
Jorge
Polanco
MINYes102Justin
Verlander
18.7%+435
Christian
Walker
ARINo92Jon
Heasley
18.6%+440
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCNo103Adam
Wainwright
18.5%+440
Dan
Vogelbach
NYMYes109Frankie
Montas
18.4%+445
Josh
Naylor
CLEYes95Mike
Clevinger
18.3%+445
Ketel
Marte
ARIYes92Jon
Heasley
17.8%+460
Shohei
Ohtani
LAAYes92Corey
Kluber
17.8%+460
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes109German
Marquez
17.8%+465
Franmil
Reyes
CHCNo103Jake
Woodford
17.3%+480
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCNo103Jake
Woodford
17.3%+480
Eloy
Jimenez
CHWNo112Austin
Voth
17.1%+485
Matt
Olson
ATLYes95JT
Brubaker
17.1%+485
Salvador
Perez
KCNo92Zach
Davies
17.0%+490
Brandon
Drury
SDNo96Aaron
Civale
17.0%+490
Brandon
Lowe
TBNo92Jose
Suarez
16.9%+490
Max
Muncy
LADYes102Corbin
Burnes
16.9%+495
Rafael
Devers
BOSYes93Ross
Stripling
16.8%+495
Wilmer
Flores
SFNo99Drew
Hutchison
16.8%+495
Julio
Rodriguez
SEANo99Erick
Fedde
16.8%+495
MJ
Melendez
KCYes92Zach
Davies
16.7%+500
Aaron
Judge
NYYNo103Taijuan
Walker
16.7%+500
Paul
DeJong
STLNo103Javier
Assad
16.7%+500
Gleyber
Torres
NYYNo103Taijuan
Walker
16.7%+500
Carlos
Correa
MINNo101Justin
Verlander
16.4%+510
Jose
Miranda
MINNo101Justin
Verlander
16.4%+510
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYYes109Taijuan
Walker
16.4%+510
Ryan
McMahon
COLYes109Dane
Dunning
16.4%+510
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCNo92Zach
Davies
16.4%+510
Nick
Castellanos
PHIYes110Nick
Lodolo
16.4%+510
Luke
Voit
WSHYes99Robbie
Ray
16.4%+510
Manny
Machado
SDNo96Aaron
Civale
16.4%+510
Kyle
Schwarber
PHINo106Nick
Lodolo
16.2%+520
Daulton
Varsho
ARIYes92Jon
Heasley
16.1%+520
Nolan
Gorman
STLYes96Adrian
Sampson
16.1%+525
Trea
Turner
LADNo107Corbin
Burnes
15.9%+530
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes110Dylan
Cease
15.8%+530
LaMonte
Wade
Jr
SFYes94Drew
Hutchison
15.8%+535
Joey
Gallo
LADYes102Corbin
Burnes
15.6%+545
Josh
Donaldson
NYYNo103Taijuan
Walker
15.4%+550
Starling
Marte
NYMNo103Frankie
Montas
15.4%+550
Juan
Soto
SDYes95Aaron
Civale
15.3%+555
Randal
Grichuk
COLNo108Dane
Dunning
15.3%+555
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes110Dylan
Cease
15.1%+560
Ramon
Urias
BALNo112Dylan
Cease
15.0%+565
Ji-Man
Choi
TBNo92Jose
Suarez
14.9%+570
Lars
Nootbaar
STLYes96Javier
Assad
14.8%+575
Trent
Grisham
SDYes95Aaron
Civale
14.7%+580
Adolis
Garcia
TEXNo108German
Marquez
14.6%+585
Willy
Adames
MILNo107Tony
Gonsolin
14.5%+590
Chas
McCormick
HOUNo101Aaron
Sanchez
14.5%+590
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWNo112Austin
Voth
14.3%+600
Sean
Murphy
OAKNo94Pablo
Lopez
14.3%+600
Tommy
Pham
BOSNo99Ross
Stripling
14.2%+600
Joey
Bart
SFNo99Drew
Hutchison
14.2%+600
Paul
DeJong
STLNo103Adrian
Sampson
14.0%+610
Michael
Harris
II
ATLYes95JT
Brubaker
14.0%+615
Ronald
Acuna
ATLNo92JT
Brubaker
14.0%+615
C.J.
Cron
COLNo108Dane
Dunning
13.9%+620
Brendan
Rodgers
COLNo108Dane
Dunning
13.9%+620
Alex
Bregman
HOUNo101Aaron
Sanchez
13.8%+625
Jesus
Aguilar
MIAYes94Zach
Logue
13.7%+625
Seth
Brown
OAKYes92Pablo
Lopez
13.7%+630
Enrique
Hernandez
BOSNo99Ross
Stripling
13.6%+635
Bo
Bichette
TORNo99Josh
Winckowski
13.6%+635
Ian
Happ
CHCYes96Jake
Woodford
13.5%+640
Lars
Nootbaar
STLYes96Adrian
Sampson
13.5%+640
Cody
Bellinger
LADYes102Corbin
Burnes
13.5%+640
Elehuris
Montero
COLNo108Dane
Dunning
13.1%+660
Martin
Maldonado
HOUNo101Aaron
Sanchez
13.1%+660
Jeremy
Pena
HOUNo101Aaron
Sanchez
13.1%+660
Randy
Arozarena
TBYes94Jose
Suarez
13.1%+665
Will
Smith
LADNo107Corbin
Burnes
13.0%+665
Joey
Meneses
WSHYes99Robbie
Ray
12.9%+675
Ian
Happ
CHCYes96Adam
Wainwright
12.8%+680
David
Peralta
TBNo92Jose
Suarez
12.8%+680
Austin
Hays
BALNo112Dylan
Cease
12.8%+680
Luis
Robert
CHWNo112Austin
Voth
12.8%+680
Travis
d'Arnaud
ATLNo92JT
Brubaker
12.8%+685
Josh
Bell
SDYes95Aaron
Civale
12.7%+685
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes95Mike
Clevinger
12.7%+685
Nick
Maton
PHINo106Nick
Lodolo
12.6%+695
Jose
Barrero
CINYes110Ranger
Suarez
12.5%+700
Taylor
Ward
LAANo94Corey
Kluber
12.3%+710
Alejandro
Kirk
TORNo99Josh
Winckowski
12.2%+720
Dansby
Swanson
ATLNo92JT
Brubaker
12.1%+725
Kolten
Wong
MILYes102Tony
Gonsolin
12.0%+730
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXYes109German
Marquez
12.0%+735
Christopher
Morel
CHCNo103Jake
Woodford
11.9%+740
Alek
Thomas
ARIYes92Jon
Heasley
11.7%+755
Max
Stassi
LAANo94Corey
Kluber
11.7%+755
Rougned
Odor
BALYes110Dylan
Cease
11.2%+790
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes110Austin
Voth
11.2%+790
A.J.
Pollock
CHWNo112Austin
Voth
11.2%+795
Brandon
Nimmo
NYMYes109Frankie
Montas
11.2%+795
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes92Corey
Kluber
11.0%+810
Elias
Diaz
COLNo108Dane
Dunning
10.8%+820
Carson
Kelly
ARINo92Jon
Heasley
10.8%+825
Emmanuel
Rivera
ARINo92Jon
Heasley
10.8%+825
J.D.
Davis
SFNo99Drew
Hutchison
10.8%+830
Ty
France
SEANo99Erick
Fedde
10.8%+830
Sam
Haggerty
SEAYes96Erick
Fedde
10.7%+835
Kyle
Tucker
HOUYes102Aaron
Sanchez
10.5%+850
Brandon
Belt
SFYes94Drew
Hutchison
10.5%+850
Mike
Yastrzemski
SFYes94Drew
Hutchison
10.5%+850
Tyler
O'Neill
STLNo103Javier
Assad
10.4%+860
Charlie
Blackmon
COLYes109Dane
Dunning
10.3%+865
Brad
Miller
TEXYes109German
Marquez
10.3%+865
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes109Frankie
Montas
10.3%+865
Josh
Rojas
ARIYes92Jon
Heasley
10.3%+870
Kerry
Carpenter
DETNo94Carlos
Rodon
10.2%+885
Lourdes
Gurriel
TORNo99Josh
Winckowski
10.0%+895
Andrew
McCutchen
MILNo107Tony
Gonsolin
10.0%+905
Kyle
Farmer
CINYes110Ranger
Suarez
10.0%+905
Jonathan
India
CINYes110Ranger
Suarez
10.0%+905
Jeimer
Candelario
DETYes99Carlos
Rodon
9.9%+915
Ildemaro
Vargas
WSHYes99Robbie
Ray
9.9%+915
Myles
Straw
CLENo96Mike
Clevinger
9.8%+925
Ha-Seong
Kim
SDNo96Aaron
Civale
9.8%+925
Oneil
Cruz
PITNo95Max
Fried
9.7%+935
Nick
Madrigal
CHCNo103Jake
Woodford
9.6%+940
Jorge
Mateo
BALNo112Dylan
Cease
9.5%+950
Kole
Calhoun
TEXYes109German
Marquez
9.5%+955
Gio
Urshela
MINNo101Justin
Verlander
9.5%+955
Trey
Mancini
HOUNo101Aaron
Sanchez
9.5%+955
Miguel
Rojas
MIAYes94Zach
Logue
9.4%+960
Jon
Berti
MIAYes94Zach
Logue
9.4%+960
Harold
Ramirez
TBYes94Jose
Suarez
9.4%+960
J.D.
Martinez
BOSNo99Ross
Stripling
9.3%+975
Bryson
Stott
PHINo106Nick
Lodolo
9.3%+980
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes92Max
Fried
9.2%+985
Corey
Dickerson
STLYes96Javier
Assad
9.2%+985
Jesse
Winker
SEAYes96Erick
Fedde
9.2%+985
J.P.
Crawford
SEAYes96Erick
Fedde
9.2%+985
Tommy
Edman
STLYes96Adrian
Sampson
9.2%+985
Zach
McKinstry
CHCYes96Jake
Woodford
9.2%+985
Jake
Cronenworth
SDYes95Aaron
Civale
9.1%+995
Javier
Baez
DETYes99Carlos
Rodon
9.1%+1005
Alec
Bohm
PHIYes110Nick
Lodolo
9.1%+1005
Stephen
Vogt
OAKYes92Pablo
Lopez
8.9%+1025
Jared
Walsh
LAAYes92Corey
Kluber
8.9%+1025
Mark
Canha
NYMNo103Frankie
Montas
8.8%+1030
Nick
Madrigal
CHCNo103Adam
Wainwright
8.8%+1030
Seiya
Suzuki
CHCNo103Adam
Wainwright
8.8%+1030
Christopher
Morel
CHCNo103Adam
Wainwright
8.8%+1030
Vaughn
Grissom
ATLNo92JT
Brubaker
8.7%+1050
Yulieski
Gurriel
HOUNo101Aaron
Sanchez
8.7%+1050
Elvis
Andrus
CHWNo112Austin
Voth
8.7%+1055
Josh
Harrison
CHWNo112Austin
Voth
8.7%+1055
Francisco
Mejia
TBYes94Jose
Suarez
8.6%+1055
Charles
Leblanc
MIAYes94Zach
Logue
8.6%+1055
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSNo99Ross
Stripling
8.5%+1070
Zach
McKinstry
CHCYes96Adam
Wainwright
8.5%+1080
Brendan
Donovan
STLYes96Adrian
Sampson
8.5%+1080
Justin
Turner
LADNo107Corbin
Burnes
8.3%+1100
Luis
Urias
MILNo107Tony
Gonsolin
8.3%+1100
Brandon
Crawford
SFYes94Drew
Hutchison
8.3%+1105
Amed
Rosario
CLENo96Mike
Clevinger
8.3%+1105
Nelson
Cruz
WSHYes99Robbie
Ray
8.2%+1115
Jake
McCarthy
ARIYes92Jon
Heasley
8.1%+1125
Vinnie
Pasquantino
KCYes92Zach
Davies
8.1%+1125
Donovan
Solano
CINYes110Ranger
Suarez
8.1%+1130
Yadier
Molina
STLNo103Adrian
Sampson
8.0%+1145
Yandy
Diaz
TBYes94Jose
Suarez
7.9%+1175
Taylor
Walls
TBYes94Jose
Suarez
7.9%+1175
Luke
Williams
MIAYes94Zach
Logue
7.9%+1175
Rodolfo
Castro
PITYes92Max
Fried
7.7%+1200

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