3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 8/23/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Yordan Alvarez To Hit a Home Run (+255)/Kyle Tucker To Hit a Home Run (+350)
This is about as straightforward of a matchup as you can imagine for the Astros, which should make them a popular option for player props tonight. They are at home to take on Aaron Sanchez, a pitcher we can certainly target for some offense.
This season, Sanchez has only 36.1 innings pitched in the MLB, which is a very small sample size. Last season, he pitched a total of 35.1 innings, and he didn't pitch in 2020. So, if we look back to 2019, he pitched 131.1 innings, giving us a viable sample size to look at.a
In 2019, he allowed a .489 SLG, a .356 wOBA, a 4.73 xFIP, 1.70 HR/9, a 10.3% walk rate, a 37.9% hard-contact rate, and a 33.0% fly-ball rate versus left-handed hitters. Those are the type of numbers we want to see when looking for home run props.
That leads us to Yordan Alvarez, who comes in with a 193 wRC+, a .437 wOBA, a .338 ISO, a 40.1% fly-ball rate, and a 46.0% hard-contact rate versus righties. Kyle Tucker is next up with his 155 wRC+, .383 wOBA, .237 ISO, 47.3% fly-ball rate, and 37.7% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.
We're expecting plenty of runs in this matchup, so we should add Alvarez To Record an RBI (+110) and Tucker To Record an RBI (+100).
Frankie Montas Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+116)
When it comes to strikeout props tonight, I'm going with an under.
That would be under 4.5 strikeouts for Frankie Montas of the New York Yankees. Montas has looked very average since joining the Yankees and has piled up only 8 strikeouts in 14.0 innings pitched over his first three starts with his new team. He comes in with a 23.8% strikeout rate on the season, a rate he's been under in each of those three recent starts.
Tonight, he takes on the New York Mets, an offense that owns a 19.9% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the second-lowest in the league. The Mets are very disciplined at the plate and don't strike out much. Combine this with the fact Montas has been struggling, and it points to the under on 4.5 strikeouts tonight.
Vladimir Guerrero To Record an RBI (+115)
The Toronto Blue Jays have a high 5.09 implied run total tonight and a great matchup.
The Jays are on the road to take on the Boston Red Sox, which means a great hitting environment at Fenway Park. The Sox will have Josh Winckowski on the mound. Winckowski is a pitcher who has struggled this season -- allowing a .462 SLG, a .343 wOBA, 1.20 HR/9, and a 4.02 xFIP versus right-handed hitters.
This puts the righties from the Blues Jays in a spot for some offense, which leads us to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.. Vladdy comes rocking a 145 wRC+, a .369 wOBA, a .229 ISO, a 40.3% hard-contact rate, and a 31.6% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers.
Given the favorable hitter's park and the matchup, it's reasonable to add Guerrero 2+ RBI (+390).