MLB
MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Monday 8/22/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
PHILuis
Cessa
8.55.0338.9%24.2%13.7%7.0%3.3%
MINCole
Ragans
8.54.9337.2%22.8%12.6%6.4%2.9%
ATLRoansy
Contreras
8.54.8435.6%21.5%11.7%5.8%2.6%
CHWDaniel
Lynch
8.54.6532.3%18.9%9.9%4.8%2.1%
LADEric
Lauer
7.54.5330.2%17.3%8.9%4.2%1.8%
STLDrew
Smyly
8.04.4428.7%16.1%8.2%3.8%1.6%
NYMDomingo
German
7.54.1323.6%12.5%5.9%2.5%1.0%
TBTucker
Davidson
7.04.0622.4%11.7%5.5%2.3%0.9%
KCMichael
Kopech
8.53.8519.2%9.6%4.3%1.7%0.6%
MIAAdam
Oller
7.03.7217.3%8.4%3.6%1.4%0.5%
PITJake
Odorizzi
8.53.6616.4%7.8%3.3%1.3%0.5%
TEXSonny
Gray
8.53.5715.2%7.1%3.0%1.1%0.4%
CHCJordan
Montgomery
8.03.5615.0%7.0%2.9%1.1%0.4%
CINNoah
Syndergaard
8.53.4713.8%6.3%2.6%0.9%0.3%
NYYMax
Scherzer
7.53.3712.6%5.6%2.2%0.8%0.3%
OAKPablo
Lopez
7.03.2811.5%5.0%1.9%0.7%0.2%
MILJulio
Urias
7.52.978.1%3.2%1.1%0.4%0.1%
LAAJeffrey
Springs
7.02.947.8%3.1%1.1%0.3%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Max
Scherzer
NYY8.095.7%89.9%80.7%68.4%54.4%40.5%28.1%
Jeffrey
Springs
LAA5.984.1%70.3%54.0%37.9%24.4%14.4%7.8%
Julio
Urias
MIL5.983.7%69.7%53.3%37.3%23.8%14.0%7.5%
Sonny
Gray
TEX5.579.4%63.6%46.4%30.8%18.6%10.2%5.2%
Pablo
Lopez
OAK5.174.3%57.0%39.5%24.7%14.0%7.2%3.4%
Eric
Lauer
LAD4.972.6%54.9%37.4%22.9%12.7%6.4%3.0%
Jordan
Montgomery
CHC4.971.6%53.6%36.1%21.9%12.0%6.0%2.7%
Noah
Syndergaard
CIN4.870.9%52.7%35.2%21.2%11.5%5.7%2.6%
Michael
Kopech
KC4.870.9%52.7%35.2%21.2%11.5%5.7%2.6%
Daniel
Lynch
CHW4.768.9%50.4%33.0%19.4%10.3%5.0%2.2%
Domingo
German
NYM4.667.8%49.1%31.8%18.5%9.7%4.6%2.0%
Roansy
Contreras
ATL4.158.4%38.9%22.9%12.0%5.7%2.4%0.9%
Drew
Smyly
STL4.055.9%36.3%20.9%10.7%4.9%2.0%0.8%
Jake
Odorizzi
PIT4.055.9%36.3%20.9%10.7%4.9%2.0%0.8%
Adam
Oller
MIA3.750.0%30.7%16.6%7.9%3.4%1.3%0.5%
Tucker
Davidson
TB3.443.1%24.7%12.3%5.4%2.1%0.8%0.2%
Cole
Ragans
MIN3.138.0%20.5%9.6%4.0%1.5%0.5%0.1%
Luis
Cessa
PHI2.116.9%6.6%2.2%0.6%0.2%0.0%0.0%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Albert
Pujols
STLYes103Drew
Smyly
28.6%+250
Mookie
Betts
LADYes107Eric
Lauer
28.1%+255
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLYes103Drew
Smyly
26.6%+275
Byron
Buxton
MINYes98Cole
Ragans
26.3%+280
Aaron
Judge
NYYNo103Max
Scherzer
26.0%+285
Kyle
Schwarber
PHIYes106Luis
Cessa
25.5%+290
Matt
Olson
ATLYes95Roansy
Contreras
25.5%+295
Adolis
Garcia
TEXNo98Sonny
Gray
24.3%+310
Mike
Trout
LAAYes94Jeffrey
Springs
24.3%+310
Austin
Riley
ATLNo92Roansy
Contreras
22.9%+335
Nolan
Arenado
STLYes103Drew
Smyly
22.9%+335
Dan
Vogelbach
NYMYes109Domingo
German
22.0%+355
Willson
Contreras
CHCYes103Jordan
Montgomery
21.8%+360
Pete
Alonso
NYMNo103Domingo
German
20.8%+380
Trea
Turner
LADYes107Eric
Lauer
19.4%+415
Jorge
Polanco
MINYes98Cole
Ragans
19.3%+415
Travis
d'Arnaud
ATLNo92Roansy
Contreras
19.1%+425
Rhys
Hoskins
PHINo110Luis
Cessa
18.8%+430
Max
Muncy
LADNo102Eric
Lauer
18.8%+430
Chris
Taylor
LADYes107Eric
Lauer
18.8%+435
Franmil
Reyes
CHCYes103Jordan
Montgomery
18.2%+450
Nelson
Velazquez
CHCYes103Jordan
Montgomery
18.2%+450
Carlos
Correa
MINYes98Cole
Ragans
18.1%+450
Trayce
Thompson
LADYes107Eric
Lauer
18.1%+450
Hunter
Renfroe
MILYes107Julio
Urias
18.1%+450
Shohei
Ohtani
LAANo92Jeffrey
Springs
17.8%+460
Jesus
Aguilar
MIANo94Adam
Oller
17.8%+460
Gio
Urshela
MINYes98Cole
Ragans
17.5%+470
Dansby
Swanson
ATLNo92Roansy
Contreras
17.5%+470
Starling
Marte
NYMNo103Domingo
German
17.3%+480
Rowdy
Tellez
MILNo102Julio
Urias
17.3%+480
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYYes109Max
Scherzer
17.1%+485
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes99Sonny
Gray
17.1%+485
Salvador
Perez
KCNo92Michael
Kopech
17.0%+490
Ian
Happ
CHCYes103Jordan
Montgomery
16.9%+490
Will
Smith
LADYes107Eric
Lauer
16.7%+500
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes109Domingo
German
16.4%+510
Ronald
Acuna
ATLNo92Roansy
Contreras
16.4%+510
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCYes103Jordan
Montgomery
16.2%+515
Jonathan
India
CINNo110Noah
Syndergaard
16.2%+515
Sean
Murphy
OAKNo94Pablo
Lopez
16.1%+520
A.J.
Pollock
CHWYes92Daniel
Lynch
16.1%+520
Willy
Adames
MILYes107Julio
Urias
16.0%+525
Paul
DeJong
STLYes103Drew
Smyly
15.5%+545
Alec
Bohm
PHINo110Luis
Cessa
15.5%+545
Seth
Brown
OAKYes92Pablo
Lopez
15.5%+545
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWYes92Daniel
Lynch
15.4%+545
Gleyber
Torres
NYYNo103Max
Scherzer
15.4%+550
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes95Jake
Odorizzi
15.3%+555
Corey
Seager
TEXYes99Sonny
Gray
15.2%+560
Jose
Miranda
MINYes98Cole
Ragans
14.9%+570
Marcus
Semien
TEXNo98Sonny
Gray
14.8%+575
Jose
Abreu
CHWYes92Daniel
Lynch
14.2%+605
Christopher
Morel
CHCYes103Jordan
Montgomery
14.1%+610
J.T.
Realmuto
PHINo110Luis
Cessa
14.1%+610
Michael
Harris
II
ATLYes95Roansy
Contreras
14.0%+615
Marcell
Ozuna
ATLNo92Roansy
Contreras
14.0%+615
Francisco
Mejia
TBYes94Tucker
Davidson
13.7%+625
Taylor
Ward
LAAYes94Jeffrey
Springs
13.7%+625
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes94Jeffrey
Springs
13.7%+625
Randy
Arozarena
TBYes94Tucker
Davidson
13.7%+625
Brandon
Nimmo
NYMYes109Domingo
German
13.5%+640
Michael
Perez
NYMYes109Domingo
German
13.5%+640
Eloy
Jimenez
CHWYes92Daniel
Lynch
13.5%+640
Oneil
Cruz
PITYes95Jake
Odorizzi
13.4%+650
Lars
Nootbaar
STLNo96Drew
Smyly
13.3%+650
Jake
Fraley
CINYes106Noah
Syndergaard
13.2%+660
Luis
Urias
MILYes107Julio
Urias
13.0%+670
Freddie
Freeman
LADNo102Eric
Lauer
12.2%+720
Kole
Calhoun
TEXYes99Sonny
Gray
11.7%+750
JJ
Bleday
MIAYes92Adam
Oller
11.7%+755
Max
Stassi
LAAYes94Jeffrey
Springs
11.6%+760
Christian
Bethancourt
TBYes94Tucker
Davidson
11.6%+760
Isaac
Paredes
TBYes94Tucker
Davidson
11.6%+760
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCNo92Michael
Kopech
11.5%+775
Vaughn
Grissom
ATLNo92Roansy
Contreras
11.5%+775
Justin
Turner
LADYes107Eric
Lauer
11.4%+775
Jose
Trevino
NYYNo103Max
Scherzer
11.2%+795
Aristides
Aquino
CINNo110Noah
Syndergaard
11.0%+805
Nick
Pratto
KCYes92Michael
Kopech
11.0%+810
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXYes99Sonny
Gray
11.0%+810
Luis
Robert
CHWYes92Daniel
Lynch
10.7%+835
DJ
LeMahieu
NYYNo103Max
Scherzer
10.4%+860
Josh
Donaldson
NYYNo103Max
Scherzer
10.4%+860
MJ
Melendez
KCYes92Michael
Kopech
10.3%+870
Vinnie
Pasquantino
KCYes92Michael
Kopech
10.3%+870
Kolten
Wong
MILNo102Julio
Urias
10.3%+870
Donovan
Solano
CINNo110Noah
Syndergaard
10.2%+880
Nick
Castellanos
PHINo110Luis
Cessa
10.2%+880
Bryson
Stott
PHIYes106Luis
Cessa
10.1%+890
Rodolfo
Castro
PITYes95Jake
Odorizzi
9.9%+910
Andrew
McCutchen
MILYes107Julio
Urias
9.7%+930
Tyrone
Taylor
MILYes107Julio
Urias
9.7%+930
Mark
Canha
NYMNo103Domingo
German
9.6%+940
Stephen
Vogt
OAKYes92Pablo
Lopez
9.6%+940
Lewin
Diaz
MIAYes92Adam
Oller
9.6%+940
Jo
Adell
LAAYes94Jeffrey
Springs
9.4%+960
Tyler
O'Neill
STLYes103Drew
Smyly
9.4%+965
Jared
Walsh
LAANo92Jeffrey
Springs
9.4%+965
Luis
Arraez
MINNo99Cole
Ragans
9.4%+965
Ezequiel
Duran
TEXNo98Sonny
Gray
9.2%+985
Robbie
Grossman
ATLYes95Roansy
Contreras
9.1%+995
Max
Kepler
MINNo99Cole
Ragans
8.7%+1045
Brad
Miller
TEXYes99Sonny
Gray
8.7%+1050
Hunter
Dozier
KCNo92Michael
Kopech
8.7%+1050
Yandy
Diaz
TBYes94Tucker
Davidson
8.6%+1055
Seiya
Suzuki
CHCYes103Jordan
Montgomery
8.5%+1070
Matt
Vierling
PHINo110Luis
Cessa
8.5%+1070
Elvis
Andrus
CHWYes92Daniel
Lynch
8.5%+1080
Seby
Zavala
CHWYes92Daniel
Lynch
8.5%+1080
Ben
Gamel
PITYes95Jake
Odorizzi
8.4%+1090
Gilberto
Celestino
MINYes98Cole
Ragans
8.2%+1125
Joey
Wendle
MIAYes92Adam
Oller
8.1%+1125
Yu
Chang
TBYes94Tucker
Davidson
7.9%+1175
Taylor
Walls
TBYes94Tucker
Davidson
7.9%+1175
Nick
Madrigal
CHCYes103Jordan
Montgomery
7.7%+1205
Mike
Moustakas
CINYes106Noah
Syndergaard
7.6%+1220
Tony
Kemp
OAKYes92Pablo
Lopez
7.4%+1250
Miguel
Rojas
MIANo94Adam
Oller
7.4%+1255
Jon
Berti
MIANo94Adam
Oller
7.4%+1255
David
Fletcher
LAAYes94Jeffrey
Springs
7.0%+1320
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes92Daniel
Lynch
6.9%+1350
Brett
Baty
NYMYes109Domingo
German
6.9%+1355
Bradley
Zimmer
PHIYes106Luis
Cessa
6.7%+1395
Brian
Anderson
MIANo94Adam
Oller
6.6%+1410
Shea
Langeliers
OAKNo94Pablo
Lopez
6.6%+1410

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