MLB
MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Friday 8/19/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
SFJose
Urena
11.56.3560.9%45.0%30.5%19.1%11.0%
COLAlex
Wood
11.55.1541.0%26.0%15.0%7.8%3.8%
MILKeegan
Thompson
9.04.7934.7%20.8%11.2%5.5%2.5%
STLTommy
Henry
8.54.7634.2%20.4%11.0%5.4%2.4%
SDPaolo
Espino
7.54.7433.9%20.1%10.8%5.2%2.3%
BALKutter
Crawford
9.04.5430.4%17.4%9.0%4.2%1.8%
LADJesus
Luzardo
7.54.5330.2%17.3%8.9%4.2%1.8%
MINMartin
Perez
8.54.5230.0%17.2%8.8%4.1%1.8%
BOSJordan
Lyles
9.04.4629.0%16.4%8.3%3.8%1.6%
ATLLance
McCullers
8.54.4128.2%15.8%7.9%3.6%1.5%
CHCAaron
Ashby
9.04.2124.8%13.4%6.5%2.8%1.1%
CINBryse
Wilson
8.04.1023.1%12.1%5.7%2.4%1.0%
PHIChris
Bassitt
8.04.1023.1%12.1%5.7%2.4%1.0%
HOUKyle
Wright
8.54.0922.9%12.0%5.7%2.4%0.9%
NYYKevin
Gausman
8.04.0622.4%11.7%5.5%2.3%0.9%
TEXDylan
Bundy
8.53.9821.2%10.9%5.0%2.1%0.8%
SEACole
Irvin
7.53.9721.0%10.8%4.9%2.0%0.8%
TORJameson
Taillon
8.03.9420.6%10.5%4.8%2.0%0.7%
CLELance
Lynn
7.53.9320.4%10.4%4.7%1.9%0.7%
LAAMatt
Manning
7.53.9320.4%10.4%4.7%1.9%0.7%
NYMAaron
Nola
8.03.9019.9%10.1%4.5%1.9%0.7%
PITGraham
Ashcraft
8.03.9019.9%10.1%4.5%1.9%0.7%
TBBrady
Singer
6.53.7517.7%8.6%3.8%1.5%0.5%
ARIMiles
Mikolas
8.53.7417.6%8.5%3.7%1.5%0.5%
CHWTriston
McKenzie
7.53.5715.2%7.1%3.0%1.1%0.4%
DETPatrick
Sandoval
7.53.5715.2%7.1%3.0%1.1%0.4%
OAKMarco
Gonzales
7.53.5314.6%6.8%2.8%1.0%0.4%
MIATyler
Anderson
7.52.978.1%3.2%1.1%0.4%0.1%
WSHBlake
Snell
7.52.766.2%2.3%0.7%0.2%0.1%
KCShane
McClanahan
6.52.756.1%2.2%0.7%0.2%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Shane
McClanahan
KC7.995.5%89.4%79.9%67.4%53.3%39.3%27.1%
Blake
Snell
WSH7.594.1%86.9%76.0%62.3%47.7%33.9%22.5%
Aaron
Nola
NYM7.292.7%84.3%72.2%57.7%42.8%29.5%18.8%
Kevin
Gausman
NYY6.387.7%75.8%60.7%44.8%30.4%19.0%10.9%
Chris
Bassitt
PHI6.185.7%72.8%57.0%41.0%27.0%16.3%9.1%
Patrick
Sandoval
DET5.680.7%65.5%48.5%32.7%20.0%11.3%5.8%
Triston
McKenzie
CHW5.680.4%65.0%48.0%32.2%19.7%11.0%5.6%
Lance
McCullers
ATL5.580.2%64.7%47.6%31.9%19.4%10.8%5.5%
Jameson
Taillon
TOR5.579.3%63.5%46.2%30.6%18.4%10.1%5.1%
Kyle
Wright
HOU5.579.3%63.5%46.2%30.6%18.4%10.1%5.1%
Jesus
Luzardo
LAD5.478.1%61.9%44.5%29.1%17.2%9.3%4.6%
Lance
Lynn
CLE5.377.7%61.4%44.0%28.6%16.9%9.1%4.5%
Tyler
Anderson
MIA5.377.6%61.2%43.8%28.4%16.8%9.0%4.5%
Aaron
Ashby
CHC5.175.3%58.2%40.7%25.7%14.7%7.7%3.7%
Brady
Singer
TB5.174.9%57.7%40.2%25.3%14.4%7.5%3.6%
Martin
Perez
MIN5.074.1%56.6%39.1%24.4%13.8%7.1%3.3%
Marco
Gonzales
OAK4.769.0%50.5%33.2%19.5%10.4%5.0%2.2%
Alex
Wood
COL4.768.9%50.4%33.0%19.4%10.3%5.0%2.2%
Kutter
Crawford
BAL4.565.4%46.4%29.4%16.6%8.5%3.9%1.7%
Cole
Irvin
SEA4.463.5%44.3%27.5%15.3%7.6%3.5%1.4%
Jordan
Lyles
BOS4.362.8%43.5%26.8%14.8%7.3%3.3%1.3%
Miles
Mikolas
ARI4.361.9%42.6%26.0%14.2%7.0%3.1%1.3%
Graham
Ashcraft
PIT4.261.0%41.6%25.2%13.6%6.6%2.9%1.2%
Dylan
Bundy
TEX4.260.3%40.8%24.5%13.1%6.3%2.8%1.1%
Tommy
Henry
STL4.158.2%38.7%22.7%11.9%5.6%2.4%0.9%
Keegan
Thompson
MIL4.057.4%37.9%22.1%11.5%5.4%2.3%0.9%
Matt
Manning
LAA3.750.6%31.3%17.0%8.2%3.5%1.4%0.5%
Bryse
Wilson
CIN3.647.6%28.6%15.0%7.0%2.9%1.1%0.4%
Paolo
Espino
SD3.443.9%25.4%12.8%5.7%2.3%0.8%0.3%
Jose
Urena
SF3.342.8%24.5%12.2%5.4%2.1%0.7%0.2%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Joc
Pederson
SFYes109Jose
Urena
29.5%+240
Byron
Buxton
MINYes98Martin
Perez
24.5%+310
Rafael
Devers
BOSYes110Jordan
Lyles
23.7%+320
Nolan
Arenado
STLYes93Tommy
Henry
23.2%+330
Matt
Olson
ATLYes100Lance
McCullers
23.2%+330
LaMonte
Wade
Jr
SFYes109Jose
Urena
23.1%+335
Adolis
Garcia
TEXNo98Dylan
Bundy
23.0%+335
Austin
Riley
ATLNo97Lance
McCullers
22.8%+340
Evan
Longoria
SFNo108Jose
Urena
22.6%+345
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORNo103Jameson
Taillon
22.3%+350
Mike
Trout
LAANo99Matt
Manning
22.2%+350
Chad
Pinder
OAKYes94Marco
Gonzales
21.9%+355
Willy
Adames
MILNo103Keegan
Thompson
21.8%+360
Trea
Turner
LADYes107Jesus
Luzardo
21.8%+360
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes106Aaron
Nola
21.6%+365
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes95Graham
Ashcraft
21.4%+365
Aaron
Judge
NYYNo103Kevin
Gausman
21.3%+370
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes103Lance
Lynn
21.1%+375
Corey
Seager
TEXYes99Dylan
Bundy
21.1%+375
William
Contreras
ATLNo97Lance
McCullers
20.9%+380
Shohei
Ohtani
LAAYes94Matt
Manning
20.8%+380
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORNo103Jameson
Taillon
20.8%+380
Hunter
Renfroe
MILNo103Keegan
Thompson
20.8%+380
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCYes103Aaron
Ashby
20.7%+385
Rhys
Hoskins
PHINo110Chris
Bassitt
20.6%+385
Salvador
Perez
KCYes94Shane
McClanahan
20.4%+390
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALNo112Kutter
Crawford
20.3%+390
Mookie
Betts
LADYes107Jesus
Luzardo
20.0%+400
Wilmer
Flores
SFNo108Jose
Urena
19.8%+405
Mike
Yastrzemski
SFYes109Jose
Urena
19.7%+410
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUYes100Kyle
Wright
19.6%+410
Eugenio
Suarez
SEAYes94Cole
Irvin
19.3%+420
Anthony
Santander
BALYes110Kutter
Crawford
19.2%+420
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLYes93Tommy
Henry
19.1%+420
Rowdy
Tellez
MILYes96Keegan
Thompson
19.0%+425
C.J.
Cron
COLYes108Alex
Wood
18.9%+430
Juan
Soto
SDYes95Paolo
Espino
18.8%+430
Pete
Alonso
NYMNo110Aaron
Nola
18.2%+450
Christian
Walker
ARINo93Miles
Mikolas
18.2%+450
Sean
Murphy
OAKYes94Marco
Gonzales
18.2%+450
Jorge
Polanco
MINYes98Martin
Perez
18.1%+450
Jared
Walsh
LAAYes94Matt
Manning
18.1%+450
Jesus
Aguilar
MIAYes107Tyler
Anderson
18.1%+450
Chris
Taylor
LADYes107Jesus
Luzardo
18.1%+450
Trayce
Thompson
LADYes107Jesus
Luzardo
18.1%+450
Darick
Hall
PHIYes106Chris
Bassitt
18.0%+455
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes99Dylan
Bundy
17.7%+465
Julio
Rodriguez
SEAYes94Cole
Irvin
17.6%+470
Manny
Machado
SDNo96Paolo
Espino
17.5%+470
Albert
Pujols
STLYes93Tommy
Henry
17.4%+475
Seth
Brown
OAKNo92Marco
Gonzales
17.4%+475
Luis
Robert
CHWNo99Triston
McKenzie
17.4%+475
Joey
Bart
SFNo108Jose
Urena
17.3%+480
Luis
Urias
MILNo103Keegan
Thompson
17.3%+480
Kyle
Tucker
HOUYes100Kyle
Wright
17.2%+480
Jake
Fraley
CINYes95Bryse
Wilson
17.1%+485
Brandon
Belt
SFYes109Jose
Urena
17.1%+485
Jose
Altuve
HOUNo97Kyle
Wright
17.1%+485
Josh
Naylor
CLEYes103Lance
Lynn
17.0%+490
Carlos
Correa
MINYes98Martin
Perez
16.9%+490
Will
Smith
LADYes107Jesus
Luzardo
16.7%+500
Kyle
Schwarber
PHIYes106Chris
Bassitt
16.7%+500
Matt
Chapman
TORNo103Jameson
Taillon
16.7%+500
Tommy
Pham
BOSNo112Jordan
Lyles
16.5%+505
Ramon
Urias
BALNo112Kutter
Crawford
16.5%+505
Brandon
Drury
SDNo96Paolo
Espino
16.4%+510
Gio
Urshela
MINYes98Martin
Perez
16.3%+515
Nelson
Velazquez
CHCYes103Aaron
Ashby
16.2%+515
Eloy
Jimenez
CHWNo99Triston
McKenzie
16.2%+520
Ji-Man
Choi
TBYes92Brady
Singer
16.1%+520
Gleyber
Torres
NYYNo103Kevin
Gausman
16.0%+525
Bo
Bichette
TORNo103Jameson
Taillon
16.0%+525
Chas
McCormick
HOUNo97Kyle
Wright
15.9%+530
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXYes99Dylan
Bundy
15.8%+530
Daulton
Varsho
ARIYes99Miles
Mikolas
15.8%+530
Aristides
Aquino
CINNo92Bryse
Wilson
15.8%+530
Mitch
Haniger
SEAYes94Cole
Irvin
15.7%+535
Ty
France
SEAYes94Cole
Irvin
15.7%+535
Freddie
Freeman
LADNo102Jesus
Luzardo
15.7%+535
Max
Muncy
LADNo102Jesus
Luzardo
15.7%+535
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes103Lance
Lynn
15.7%+540
Jose
Miranda
MINYes98Martin
Perez
15.6%+540
Brandon
Lowe
TBYes92Brady
Singer
15.5%+545
Randy
Arozarena
TBNo94Brady
Singer
15.5%+545
George
Springer
TORNo103Jameson
Taillon
15.4%+550
Emmanuel
Rivera
ARINo93Miles
Mikolas
15.4%+550
Ronald
Acuna
ATLNo97Lance
McCullers
15.3%+555
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes110Kutter
Crawford
15.1%+560
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes110Kutter
Crawford
15.1%+560
David
Peralta
TBYes92Brady
Singer
14.9%+570
Danny
Jansen
TORNo103Jameson
Taillon
14.7%+580
Lane
Thomas
WSHYes96Blake
Snell
14.7%+580
Dan
Vogelbach
NYMYes106Aaron
Nola
14.7%+580
Michael
Harris
II
ATLYes100Lance
McCullers
14.6%+585
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes94Cole
Irvin
14.4%+595
Marcus
Semien
TEXNo98Dylan
Bundy
14.1%+610
Willson
Contreras
CHCYes103Aaron
Ashby
14.1%+610
Franmil
Reyes
CHCYes103Aaron
Ashby
14.1%+610
Dansby
Swanson
ATLNo97Lance
McCullers
14.0%+615
Eric
Haase
DETYes99Patrick
Sandoval
13.6%+635
Taylor
Ward
LAANo99Matt
Manning
13.6%+635
Brandon
Crawford
SFYes109Jose
Urena
13.5%+640
Jonathan
India
CINNo92Bryse
Wilson
13.4%+645
Jesse
Winker
SEANo92Cole
Irvin
13.4%+650
Martin
Maldonado
HOUNo97Kyle
Wright
13.3%+650
Nick
Fortes
MIAYes107Tyler
Anderson
13.0%+670
Jeimer
Candelario
DETYes99Patrick
Sandoval
12.9%+675
Max
Stassi
LAANo99Matt
Manning
12.9%+675
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes103Triston
McKenzie
12.9%+675
Eric
Hosmer
BOSYes110Jordan
Lyles
12.8%+680
Victor
Caratini
MILYes96Keegan
Thompson
12.8%+680
J.D.
Martinez
BOSNo112Jordan
Lyles
12.8%+680
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSNo112Jordan
Lyles
12.8%+680
Oneil
Cruz
PITYes95Graham
Ashcraft
12.7%+685
Travis
d'Arnaud
ATLNo97Lance
McCullers
12.7%+690
Trey
Mancini
HOUNo97Kyle
Wright
12.7%+690
Nico
Hoerner
CHCYes103Aaron
Ashby
12.6%+695
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes94Matt
Manning
12.6%+695
Brandon
Nimmo
NYMYes106Aaron
Nola
12.4%+705
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCYes94Shane
McClanahan
12.4%+710
Randal
Grichuk
COLYes108Alex
Wood
12.3%+710
MJ
Melendez
KCNo92Shane
McClanahan
12.3%+715
Vinnie
Pasquantino
KCNo92Shane
McClanahan
12.3%+715
Paul
DeJong
STLYes93Tommy
Henry
12.2%+715
Christian
Yelich
MILYes96Keegan
Thompson
12.1%+725
Rougned
Odor
BALYes110Kutter
Crawford
12.1%+730
Jurickson
Profar
SDYes95Paolo
Espino
12.0%+730
Josh
Bell
SDYes95Paolo
Espino
12.0%+730
Trent
Grisham
SDYes95Paolo
Espino
12.0%+730
Vaughn
Grissom
ATLNo97Lance
McCullers
12.0%+735
Andrew
McCutchen
MILNo103Keegan
Thompson
11.9%+740
Tyrone
Taylor
MILNo103Keegan
Thompson
11.9%+740
Luke
Voit
WSHYes96Blake
Snell
11.9%+745
Starling
Marte
NYMNo110Aaron
Nola
11.8%+745
Nick
Castellanos
PHINo110Chris
Bassitt
11.8%+745
Ketel
Marte
ARIYes99Miles
Mikolas
11.7%+750
A.J.
Pollock
CHWNo99Triston
McKenzie
11.5%+770
Oscar
Gonzalez
CLENo99Lance
Lynn
11.5%+770
Brendan
Rodgers
COLYes108Alex
Wood
11.5%+770
Javier
Baez
DETYes99Patrick
Sandoval
11.4%+775
Yasmani
Grandal
CHWYes103Triston
McKenzie
11.4%+780
Jeremy
Pena
HOUNo97Kyle
Wright
11.3%+785
Lars
Nootbaar
STLNo99Tommy
Henry
11.3%+790
Enrique
Hernandez
BOSNo112Jordan
Lyles
11.2%+795
Eddie
Rosario
ATLYes100Lance
McCullers
11.1%+800
Seiya
Suzuki
CHCYes103Aaron
Ashby
11.0%+805
Christopher
Morel
CHCYes103Aaron
Ashby
11.0%+805
Brad
Miller
TEXYes99Dylan
Bundy
11.0%+810
Sheldon
Neuse
OAKYes94Marco
Gonzales
10.9%+815
Thairo
Estrada
SFNo108Jose
Urena
10.8%+820
Kyle
Farmer
CINNo92Bryse
Wilson
10.8%+825
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo99Triston
McKenzie
10.8%+830
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWNo99Triston
McKenzie
10.8%+830
Kolten
Wong
MILYes96Keegan
Thompson
10.7%+835
Ben
Gamel
PITYes95Graham
Ashcraft
10.6%+840
Jake
Cronenworth
SDYes95Paolo
Espino
10.6%+840
Garrett
Cooper
MIAYes107Tyler
Anderson
10.6%+845
DJ
LeMahieu
NYYNo103Kevin
Gausman
10.4%+860
Santiago
Espinal
TORNo103Jameson
Taillon
10.4%+860
Cesar
Hernandez
WSHYes96Blake
Snell
10.4%+865
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYYes109Kevin
Gausman
10.3%+865
Yandy
Diaz
TBNo94Brady
Singer
10.3%+870
J.T.
Realmuto
PHINo110Chris
Bassitt
10.2%+880
Hunter
Dozier
KCYes94Shane
McClanahan
10.2%+885
Dylan
Carlson
STLYes93Tommy
Henry
10.1%+890
Alex
Bregman
HOUNo97Kyle
Wright
9.9%+915
Justin
Turner
LADYes107Jesus
Luzardo
9.7%+930
Josh
Donaldson
NYYNo103Kevin
Gausman
9.6%+940
Christian
Arroyo
BOSNo112Jordan
Lyles
9.5%+950
Jorge
Mateo
BALNo112Kutter
Crawford
9.5%+950
Alek
Thomas
ARIYes99Miles
Mikolas
9.5%+955
David
MacKinnon
OAKYes94Marco
Gonzales
9.4%+960
Josh
Harrison
CHWNo99Triston
McKenzie
9.3%+975
David
Fletcher
LAANo99Matt
Manning
9.3%+975
Bradley
Zimmer
PHIYes106Chris
Bassitt
9.3%+980
Willi
Castro
DETYes99Patrick
Sandoval
9.1%+1005
Elehuris
Montero
COLYes108Alex
Wood
8.9%+1025
Ildemaro
Vargas
WSHYes96Blake
Snell
8.8%+1035
Joey
Meneses
WSHYes96Blake
Snell
8.8%+1035
Charlie
Blackmon
COLNo109Alex
Wood
8.8%+1035
Alex
Verdugo
BOSYes110Jordan
Lyles
8.7%+1050
Albert
Almora
Jr.
CINNo92Bryse
Wilson
8.7%+1050
Jose
Barrero
CINNo92Bryse
Wilson
8.7%+1050
Ian
Happ
CHCYes103Aaron
Ashby
8.5%+1070
Jo
Adell
LAANo99Matt
Manning
8.5%+1070
Bryson
Stott
PHIYes106Chris
Bassitt
8.4%+1085
Mike
Papierski
CINYes95Bryse
Wilson
8.4%+1090
Miguel
Cabrera
DETYes99Patrick
Sandoval
8.2%+1115
Harold
Ramirez
TBNo94Brady
Singer
8.1%+1130
Max
Kepler
MINNo99Martin
Perez
8.1%+1140
Lourdes
Gurriel
TORNo103Jameson
Taillon
8.0%+1145
Jose
Trevino
NYYNo103Kevin
Gausman
8.0%+1145

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