3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 8/17/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Adolis Garcia To Hit a Home Run (+320)/Marcus Semien To Hit a Home Run (+330)
One of the best matchups on the slate should lead to the Rangers' hitters being a popular option for player props tonight. They are taking on Adam Oller from the Oakland Athletics, and Oller is struggling in his first year in the MLB.
This year, Oller is giving up a .556 SLG, a .396 wOBA, a 6.02 xFIP, 1.76 HR/9, and a 54.6% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters. Combine that with the fact he has a very low 14.0% strikeout rate and a high 9.1% walk rate, and he is playing with fire on the mound. His inability to strike out hitters coupled with a very high fly-ball rate is a dangerous mix.
That leads us to Adolis Garcia, who is rocking a 123 wRC+, a .337 wOBA, a .205 ISO, a 37.0% fly-ball rate, and a 40.0% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season.
Next would be Marcus Semien, who has a 96 wRC+, a .300 wOBA, a .167 ISO, and a 49.5% fly-ball rate versus righties. Semien's numbers are rather modest overall due to a slow start, but we've seen them increase as the season has gone on. Versus right-handed pitchers in August, he has a 126 wRC+, a .342 wOBA, and a .255 ISO.
Of course, we should add Garcia To Record an RBI (+115) and Semien To Record an RBI (+130).
Michael Kopech Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-106)
Time for another under on a strikeout prop.
That would be the under at 4.5 strikeouts for Michael Kopech of the Chicago White Sox. In his most recent outing, Kopech piled up a very impressive 11 strikeouts against the Detroit Tigers. While that may make it appear as if he is a good option for the over, it's all about the matchup.
The Tigers have a 25.2% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the second-worst in the league. Even with Kopech carrying a modest 22.4% strikeout rate and 10.3% swinging-strike rate, he still managed to pile up a season-high 11 punchouts.
Tonight, things couldn't be more different.
Kopech is taking on the Houston Astros, who have a 20.4% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the fifth-lowest. Not to mention the Astros have a 112 wRC+ and a .173 ISO versus righties, both of which are in the top six of the league. Kopech might be coming off a season-high for strikeouts, but tonight he has a very tough matchup against a team that doesn't strike out much.
Will Smith To Record an RBI (+110)
Taking a player at plus money from the Los Angeles Dodgers is always a strong option.
Breaking news over here -- the Dodgers are good. They have scored the most runs in the entire MLB, and we get an RBI prop at plus money -- it's really that simple. They are carrying a 4.48 implied run total, which is the second-highest on the slate, and are set to take on Eric Lauer.
This season, Lauer is allowing a .440 SLG, a 4.22 xFIP, 1.76 HR/9, a 48.1% fly-ball rate, and a 34.6% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. The Dodgers have a ton of right-handed hitters in their lineup, but I like Will Smith tonight.
Smith hits in the heart of the order and should have plenty of cracks at the plate to drive in a run. He comes in with a 156 wRC+, a .392 wOBA, a .186 ISO, a 46.1% fly-ball rate, and a 32.9% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers.
It's the Dodgers' offense, and they can put up runs in a hurry, so I'm also adding Smith 2+ RBI (+380).