3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 8/16/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Patrick Wisdom To Hit a Home Run (+255)/Willson Contreras To Hit a Home Run (+285)
As sure as the sun will rise tomorrow, we target Patrick Corbin whenever he is on the mound.
Corbin has been a favorite target of mine -- and many others this season -- because he has been so bad.
He comes into tonight allowing a .539 SLG to right-handed hitters, along with a .397 wOBA, a 4.18 xFIP, 1.88 HR/9, a 34.2% fly-ball rate, and a 39.1% hard-contact rate. Those are some of the worst numbers you will find on tonight's slate, which is why we see the Chicago Cubs with a nice 4.69 implied run total.
This points us to Patrick Wisdom, who comes in with a 143 wRC+, a .379 wOBA, a .267 ISO, a 41.9% fly-ball rate, and a 39.7% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers.
Next up is Willson Contreras, who is rocking a 162 wRC+, a .407 wOBA, a .356 ISO, a 39.7% fly-ball rate, and a 38.2% hard-contact rate versus lefties.
It's an elite matchup for one of the worst pitchers in the league, so I have to add Wisdom To Record an RBI (+120) and Contreras To Record an RBI (+125).
Mitch Keller Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+114)
For a strikeout prop, we turn to an under tonight.
That would be under 3.5 strikeouts for Mitch Keller of the Pittsburgh Pirates. This season, Keller is sporting an 18.8% strikeout rate and an 8.1% swinging-strike rate. For reference, the league average strikeout rate is 22.3% and the league average swinging-strike rate is 11.1%. Keller is clearly below average in those two areas and it's actually gotten worse in recent starts.
Over his last three starts, Keller has posted strikeout rates of 13.6%, 3.8%, and 12.0%, with swinging strike rates of 4.1%, 5.7%, and 8.1%. These are some very modest numbers, and it shows that he doesn't always have a clear path to racking up a ton of strikeouts.
Tonight, he is taking on the Boston Red Sox, who come in with a 21.8% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers (11th-lowest in the league).
All of this leads to the under as the side for Keller's whiffs tonight.
Julio Rodriguez To Record an RBI (+135)
The Seattle Mariners have a 4.20 implied run total tonight and a strong matchup.
That's because they are taking on Jose Suarez, who comes in allowing a .418 SLG, a .328 wOBA, a 4.37 xFIP, 1.49 HR/9, a 9.9% walk rate, a 44.6% fly-ball rate, and a 33.1% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. This is as straightforward of a matchup as you can imagine for the Mariners' righties.
That leads us to rookie sensation, Julio Rodriguez, who comes in with a 134 wRC+, a .348 wOBA, a .198 ISO, a 37.9% fly-ball rate, and a 22.7% HR/FB ratio versus left-handed pitchers.
J-Rod has been electric all season and has plenty of single-night upside, so I'm adding Rodriguez 2+ RBIs (+500) as well.