MLB Betting Guide: Monday 8/15/22

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.

For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins

Over 6.5 (-115): 2-Star Rating Out of 5

Two excellent pitchers square off tonight in Miami as it's Joe Musgrove versus Sandy Alcantara. While runs should be hard to come by, the 6.5-run total is too low, according to our model.

Musgrove has a 2.91 ERA and 3.44 SIERA. He has been a breakout performer for the San Diego Padres. However, he's not missing as many bats as he did a season ago. His 24.5% strikeout rate is a few ticks down from his 2021 clip of 27.1%. His strikeout rate is only 21.3% over his previous five outings, a stretch in which he's recorded a not-as-geat 3.81 xFIP.

Musgrove is really good, and the Miami Marlins' offense is not -- but Musgrove hasn't been at his best lately, and even when he's been dealing this season, he is still giving up a fair number of balls in play.

It's a little bit of the same story with Alcantara. The possible NL Cy Young winner boasts a dazzling 2.01 ERA, but his SIERA is 3.51 and he's striking out only 22.8% of hitters. He's benefitting greatly from a .248 BABIP and 6.2% homer-to-fly-ball rate. His career averages in those stats prior to 2022 were a .271 BABIP and 12.0% homer-to-fly-ball rate.

Like Musgrove, the lack of strikeouts has become even more of an issue lately. Over his last three starts (21 2/3 frames), Alcantara has punched out only 12 hitters. He's also permitted four earned runs in two of those three starts. Unlike Musgrove, Alcantara has a really difficult matchup against a stout Padres offense.

While the recent numbers might be small-sample noise for both of these aces, there's also a chance they're running out of gas a bit, and neither of them is an elite strikeout artist to begin with.

We project San Diego to win by a score of 3.73-3.45. That's 7.18 runs. We think the over cashes 58.1% of the time and mark it as a two-star bet (two-unit recommendation).

Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox

White Sox Moneyline (+114): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Over 8.5 (-122): 2-Star Rating Out of 5

Our numbers and oddsmakers point to a nail-biter tonight on the South Side of Chicago between the Houston Astros and Chicago White Sox. But our projections think it's the White Sox who come out on top, and we also have a lean on the total.

Jose Urquidy is pitching for Houston. He's been pretty underwhelming this season, striking out only 18.9% of hitters while registering a meh 4.26 SIERA. He's allowing a 45.7% fly-ball rate and 1.51 dingers per nine -- both of which are career-worst marks.

Johnny Cueto is up for Chicago, and his magical campaign is hard to believe. The owner of a 2.91 ERA, Cueto's advanced metrics paint a much different picture. His SIERA sits at 4.39, and his strikeout rate is 16.5%. While it's not all good luck -- Cueto's 44.9% ground-ball rate is decent enough -- he's certainly benefitting from plenty of good fortune. With that said, he held Houston to just four baserunners in seven shutout frames earlier this season.

Our algorithm has 9.97 total runs being scored in this one and backs the over to hit 62.4% of the time, assigning it a two-star rating. We have the outcome at nearly a 50/50 split, giving the Pale Hose the slightest edge as we project them to win 50.5% of the time. Taking the underdog White Sox on the moneyline is a one-star wager.