FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Friday 8/12/22
We have a fairly deep pitching slate on Friday, but there's no question that two aces are in a tier of their own tonight. While Coors Field should draw plenty of eyeballs for stacks, some of the league's top offenses are in great spots, as well.
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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
Max Scherzer ($11,400): Scherzer is at or near the top of the wish list just about any time he pitches, and tonight is no exception.
The 38-year-old has shown no signs of slowing down, posting a 2.77 SIERA, 32.3% strikeout rate, and 4.6% walk rate over 15 outings. He's also remarkably consistent, logging quality starts in a dozen games and often pitching past six innings.
Since returning from the injured list in July, he's rattled off FanDuel scores of 55, 55, 50, 40, 43, 39, and 64 points.
This is more of a neutral matchup against the Phillies, but it isn't a bad one for Ks, as Philadelphia's active roster has a 23.8% strikeout rate versus right-handers. The Phillies also have one of the lowest implied totals of the night (2.87).
Having Scherzer in your player pool is a no-brainer on Friday night.
Carlos Rodon ($10,800): The other obvious choice at pitcher is Rodon, who checks in with marks that closely rival Scherzer's. The southpaw owns a 3.06 SIERA, 31.2% strikeout rate, and 7.6% walk rate over his 22 games this year.
But if we're going to nitpick, Rodon hasn't exhibited quite the same level of consistency as Scherzer. Since the beginning of last month, Rodon has recorded a quality start in just two of his seven appearances.
That said, his upside remains as high as ever; he scored 70 and 61 FanDuel points in that pair of quality starts.
This is the right matchup for one of those ceiling performances, too. Rodon is pitching at home against a Pirates team that has a 97 wRC+ and 25.0% strikeout rate when facing lefties. Pittsburgh's 2.95 implied total is right there with Philadelphia as one of the slate's worst.
Scherzer arguably gets the edge tonight, but Rodon might as well be the 1A on this slate.
But in terms of strikeout potential, I like Mahle due to his matchup against the Angels. The Halos' once promising start to the season feels like a long, long time ago now, and their active roster has a 96 wRC+ and league-worst 27.3% strikeout rate against righties.
Mahle's showing mixed results in 2022, but the underlying numbers have been pretty good between a 3.80 SIERA, 25.8% strikeout rate, and 8.7% walk rate.
Although he's prone to control issues and will give up his share of dingers off a 46.3% fly-ball rate, he can also pop for punchouts here and there. Over his 20 starts, he's tallied seven or more strikeouts seven times, and he even hit double-digits twice in June.
Either Scherzer or Rodon will more than likely lead the slate in scoring. But taking a couple of shots with Mahle couldn't hurt in case he's able to take full advantage of this fantastic matchup.
Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks
This evening's Coors Field matchup between the Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks has a fat 12.0 over/under slapped on it, giving these teams the night's highest implied totals. Zach Davies and Antonio Senzatela aren't exactly the types of pitchers to scare us off from rostering either offense.
Beginning with the Rockies' matchup, Davies has far worse splits facing lefties, though there are still positives to attacking him with righties, too.
On the other hand, Davies has a much more imposing 24.5% strikeout rate in same-sided matchups. At the same time, he only has a 39.2% ground-ball rate in the split, and that has contributed to giving up 1.58 homers per nine innings. C.J. Cron ($4,300) is the best candidate to knock one out, and Elehuris Montero ($2,700) remains an intriguing value play.
The D-backs have a more straightforward matchup versus Senzatela, a righty who lacks punchouts against both sides of the plate. Overall, he has a meh 4.47 SIERA and 13.3% strikeout rate, but he doesn't dole out many walks (5.3%) and has a respectable ground-ball rate (48.5%).
Christian Walker ($3,800) and Daulton Varsho ($3,700) are the obvious power options, and then it's a matter of fitting in whoever you can around them. Jake McCarthy ($2,600) is probably the best choice under $3,000, as he's projected to bat sixth and has some speed upside.
Coors Field is great and all, but considering the Rockies' and Diamondbacks' offenses aren't exactly the cream of the crop, we don't need to force them in on a slate with plenty of viable alternatives.
The 27-year-old has spent time as both a starter and reliever this year, and he hasn't been particularly effective in either role, recording a 5.81 SIERA, 13.9% strikeout rate, and 11.5% walk rate over 43 2/3 innings. He's been getting absolutely crushed by the long ball, too, coughing up 2.47 per nine innings off a massive 52.6% fly-ball rate.
Oller has poor splits versus lefties and righties alike, making this stack that much easier to put together. Yordan Alvarez ($4,300) is the main draw as always, and then there's still plenty of value throughout the lineup with guys like Yuli Gurriel ($2,400), Alex Bregman ($3,100), Jeremy Pena ($2,700), and Chas McCormick ($2,400).
San Diego Padres
We don't have a ton of MLB data on Abbott, but dating back to 2021, he's posted a discouraging 5.73 SIERA, 16.3% strikeout rate, and 13.5% walk rate over 30 innings. Making matters worse, he's allowed a dozen home runs across that limited span, which comes to a whopping 3.60 per nine innings.
His Triple-A numbers both this year and last year tell a similar story, with both walks and dingers being a consistent problem. After getting claimed by Washington earlier this season, he managed just a 4.91 xFIP over 28 1/3 Triple-A innings.
But if you can't fit some of those guys in, you can turn to Jurickson Profar ($3,000), Josh Bell ($3,200), and Jake Cronenworth ($3,000) at less restrictive salaries. Even Trent Grisham ($2,400) is worth a glance due to a much improved .271 ISO since the All-Star break.