3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 8/12/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Juan Soto To Hit a Home Run (+240)/Brandon Drury To Hit a Home Run (+340)
While we have a full slate of games and there are tons of great home run hitters in action, Juan Soto and Brandon Drury from the Padres are at the top of my list. This is the first time Soto will be returning to face the Washington Nationals after Washington traded him just a few weeks ago. But this is truly all about the matchup -- not any narratives
Cory Abbott will be on the mound for the Nats, presenting a great matchup for the Padres' power hitters. Abbott has a small sample size this season as well as over the course of his career, so take things with a grain of salt. During that time, he has allowed a .698 SLG, a .456 wOBA, a 6.79 xFIP, 4.11 HR/9, and a 62.0% fly-ball rate versus left-handed hitters. Versus right-handed hitters, Abbott has permitted a .518 SLG, a .367 wOBA, a 6.18 xFIP, 3.07 HR/9, and a 44.4% fly-ball rate.
It's a small sample size, but it's all rough stuff from Abbott.
That leads us to Soto, who comes in with a 176 wRC+, a .428 wOBA, a .286 ISO, a 35.3% fly-ball rate, and a 23.9% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed pitchers.
Drury is rocking a 119 wRC+, a .349 wOBA, a .214 ISO, a 38.1% fly-ball rate, and a 35.2% hard-contact rate against righties.
The Padres are going to be scoring runs tonight, so I'm adding Soto To Record an RBI (-110) and Drury To Record an RBI (+100).
Zach Davies Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-118)
The under on a short number is always tricky, but it's the spot I'm going to for this one.
A strikeout prop of 3.5 is very low, but Zach Davies is in a brutal spot tonight. First off, Davies is not -- and never has been -- a big strikeout pitcher. This season, he is carrying an 18.2% strikeout rate along with an 8.5% swinging-strike rate. Those are right in line with his career numbers of a 17.4% strikeout rate and an 8.2% swinging-strike rate.
Davies has been under four punchouts in four straight starts and 10 of his 17 starts on the year. We have to add in the fact this isn't a great matchup for him since he is taking on the Colorado Rockies, who have a 21.3% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the ninth-lowest in the league.
Not to mention the fact that this game is AT Coors Field aka the best hitter's park in the league. We see the Rockies carrying a slate-high 6.20 implied run total. There's always the potential that Davies gets rocked and pulled early, which is great for the under.
Rafael Devers To Record an RBI (+120)
When it comes to RBI props, getting great hitters at plus money is the goal. That's what we have with Rafael Devers here, so let's get into it.
The Boston Red Sox are at home to take on the New York Yankees, where the game's total is 9.0 in a great park for offense. Right from the jump, we are in a good spot for run production, which is also indicated by the Sox carrying a 4.35 implied run total.
Devers will be taking on Domingo German, who has only four starts under his belt this season, so we'll look to last year's stats. In 2021, German allowed a .376 wOBA, a 4.04 xFIP, 1.36 HR/9, a 50.0% fly-ball rate, and a 40.0% hard-contact rate to left-handed hitters. The fly-ball and hard-contact mix is very dangerous in Fenway Park, putting Devers in a great spot.
Devers comes in with a very strong 174 wRC+, a .419 wOBA, a .304 ISO, a 41.4% fly-ball rate, and a 41.2% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. He's always been a Yankee killer, so I'm adding Devers 2+ RBI (+440).