MLB

MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Thursday 8/11/22

Betting MLB player props or playing daily fantasy baseball? See who is most likely to homer, rack up the most strikeouts, and score the most runs today.

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
STLGerman
Marquez
11.55.8653.2%37.1%23.7%13.9%7.5%
COLDakota
Hudson
11.55.6449.5%33.6%20.8%11.8%6.1%
BOSDean
Kremer
10.05.2743.1%27.8%16.3%8.7%4.3%
HOUCole
Ragans
8.04.9537.5%23.1%12.8%6.5%3.0%
BALJosh
Winckowski
10.04.7333.7%19.9%10.7%5.2%2.3%
CLEGarrett
Hill
8.54.7133.3%19.7%10.5%5.1%2.2%
CINDrew
Smyly
9.04.5730.9%17.8%9.2%4.4%1.9%
CHWZack
Greinke
8.04.5330.2%17.3%8.9%4.2%1.8%
ARIJT
Brubaker
8.04.5029.7%16.9%8.7%4.0%1.7%
CHCNick
Lodolo
9.04.4328.5%16.0%8.1%3.7%1.6%
PHIEdward
Cabrera
8.04.4328.5%16.0%8.1%3.7%1.6%
DETZach
Plesac
8.53.7918.3%9.0%4.0%1.6%0.6%
MIAKyle
Gibson
8.03.5715.2%7.1%3.0%1.1%0.4%
PITMerrill
Kelly
8.03.5014.2%6.5%2.7%1.0%0.3%
KCDylan
Cease
8.03.4713.8%6.3%2.6%0.9%0.3%
TEXFramber
Valdez
8.03.058.9%3.6%1.3%0.4%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Dylan
Cease
KC7.292.8%84.4%72.3%57.8%43.0%29.6%18.9%
Framber
Valdez
TEX5.984.2%70.4%54.1%38.1%24.5%14.5%7.9%
Merrill
Kelly
PIT5.478.4%62.3%45.0%29.5%17.6%9.6%4.8%
Nick
Lodolo
CHC5.377.6%61.2%43.8%28.4%16.8%9.0%4.5%
Edward
Cabrera
PHI5.276.1%59.2%41.7%26.6%15.4%8.1%3.9%
Kyle
Gibson
MIA5.074.1%56.6%39.1%24.4%13.8%7.1%3.3%
German
Marquez
STL4.972.1%54.2%36.6%22.3%12.3%6.2%2.8%
JT
Brubaker
ARI4.769.5%51.1%33.7%19.9%10.7%5.2%2.3%
Dean
Kremer
BOS4.159.3%39.8%23.7%12.6%6.0%2.6%1.0%
Zach
Plesac
DET4.158.0%38.5%22.6%11.8%5.5%2.4%0.9%
Zack
Greinke
CHW3.852.9%33.4%18.6%9.2%4.1%1.6%0.6%
Josh
Winckowski
BAL3.751.4%32.1%17.6%8.5%3.7%1.5%0.5%
Garrett
Hill
CLE3.750.8%31.5%17.1%8.3%3.6%1.4%0.5%
Dakota
Hudson
COL3.750.4%31.1%16.8%8.1%3.5%1.3%0.5%
Drew
Smyly
CIN3.648.9%29.7%15.9%7.5%3.2%1.2%0.4%
Cole
Ragans
HOU3.647.8%28.8%15.2%7.1%3.0%1.1%0.4%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUNo102Cole
Ragans
24.9%+300
Christopher
Morel
CHCYes111Nick
Lodolo
24.0%+315
Darick
Hall
PHIYes106Edward
Cabrera
22.6%+340
Jonathan
India
CINYes111Drew
Smyly
22.4%+345
Rhys
Hoskins
PHINo110Edward
Cabrera
22.3%+350
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLNo108German
Marquez
22.0%+355
Jose
Altuve
HOUYes101Cole
Ragans
22.0%+355
Paul
DeJong
STLNo108German
Marquez
21.5%+365
Willson
Contreras
CHCYes111Nick
Lodolo
21.2%+370
Nolan
Arenado
STLNo108German
Marquez
20.9%+380
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes94Garrett
Hill
20.8%+380
Josh
Naylor
CLEYes94Garrett
Hill
20.3%+395
Rafael
Devers
BOSYes93Dean
Kremer
20.1%+395
Anthony
Santander
BALYes93Josh
Winckowski
20.1%+395
Nolan
Gorman
STLYes109German
Marquez
19.7%+410
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCYes111Nick
Lodolo
19.3%+420
Seiya
Suzuki
CHCYes111Nick
Lodolo
19.3%+420
Eloy
Jimenez
CHWNo92Zack
Greinke
19.1%+425
Rougned
Odor
BALYes93Josh
Winckowski
18.5%+440
Christian
Walker
ARINo93JT
Brubaker
18.2%+450
Austin
Hays
BALNo99Josh
Winckowski
18.0%+455
Ramon
Urias
BALNo99Josh
Winckowski
18.0%+455
Martin
Maldonado
HOUYes101Cole
Ragans
17.9%+455
Alex
Bregman
HOUYes101Cole
Ragans
17.9%+455
Jeremy
Pena
HOUYes101Cole
Ragans
17.9%+455
C.J.
Cron
COLNo108Dakota
Hudson
17.3%+480
Charlie
Blackmon
COLYes109Dakota
Hudson
17.1%+485
Donovan
Solano
CINYes111Drew
Smyly
16.5%+505
Nelson
Velazquez
CHCYes111Nick
Lodolo
16.5%+505
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWNo92Zack
Greinke
16.4%+510
MJ
Melendez
KCYes92Dylan
Cease
16.1%+520
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes101Framber
Valdez
16.0%+525
Nick
Castellanos
PHINo110Edward
Cabrera
15.5%+545
J.D.
Martinez
BOSNo99Dean
Kremer
15.5%+545
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALNo99Josh
Winckowski
15.5%+545
Joey
Votto
CINNo113Drew
Smyly
15.2%+555
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes99Merrill
Kelly
15.2%+560
Tommy
Pham
BOSNo99Dean
Kremer
14.9%+570
Kyle
Schwarber
PHIYes106Edward
Cabrera
14.7%+580
Salvador
Perez
KCNo92Dylan
Cease
14.6%+585
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCNo92Dylan
Cease
14.6%+585
Daulton
Varsho
ARIYes99JT
Brubaker
14.5%+590
Oneil
Cruz
PITYes99Merrill
Kelly
14.5%+590
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo92Zack
Greinke
14.0%+615
Randal
Grichuk
COLNo108Dakota
Hudson
13.9%+620
Javier
Baez
DETNo99Zach
Plesac
13.6%+635
Franmil
Reyes
CHCYes111Nick
Lodolo
13.4%+645
Kyle
Tucker
HOUNo102Cole
Ragans
13.4%+645
Jesus
Aguilar
MIANo110Kyle
Gibson
13.4%+650
Marcus
Semien
TEXYes101Framber
Valdez
13.1%+660
Albert
Almora
Jr.
CINYes111Drew
Smyly
12.6%+695
Aristides
Aquino
CINYes111Drew
Smyly
12.6%+695
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes93Josh
Winckowski
12.5%+700
Trey
Mancini
HOUYes101Cole
Ragans
12.4%+705
Yulieski
Gurriel
HOUYes101Cole
Ragans
12.4%+705
Luis
Robert
CHWNo92Zack
Greinke
12.1%+725
Lars
Nootbaar
STLYes109German
Marquez
12.0%+735
Ian
Happ
CHCYes111Nick
Lodolo
11.8%+750
Jose
Barrero
CINYes111Drew
Smyly
11.8%+750
Alek
Thomas
ARIYes99JT
Brubaker
11.7%+750
Bryson
Stott
PHIYes106Edward
Cabrera
11.7%+755
Adolis
Garcia
TEXYes101Framber
Valdez
11.6%+760
Jake
Meyers
HOUYes101Cole
Ragans
11.6%+760
Carson
Kelly
ARINo93JT
Brubaker
11.6%+765
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes94Garrett
Hill
11.2%+790
Eric
Hosmer
BOSYes93Dean
Kremer
11.1%+800
Alex
Verdugo
BOSYes93Dean
Kremer
11.1%+800
Brendan
Rodgers
COLNo108Dakota
Hudson
10.8%+820
Tucker
Barnhart
DETYes94Zach
Plesac
10.5%+850
Jeimer
Candelario
DETYes94Zach
Plesac
10.5%+850
Ketel
Marte
ARIYes99JT
Brubaker
10.3%+875
Garrett
Cooper
MIANo110Kyle
Gibson
10.2%+880
A.J.
Pollock
CHWNo92Zack
Greinke
10.1%+890
JJ
Bleday
MIAYes106Kyle
Gibson
10.1%+890
Myles
Straw
CLENo99Garrett
Hill
10.0%+895
Ezequiel
Duran
TEXYes101Framber
Valdez
10.0%+895
Nick
Madrigal
CHCYes111Nick
Lodolo
10.0%+895
Harold
Castro
DETYes94Zach
Plesac
9.8%+920
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes93Josh
Winckowski
9.7%+930
Josh
Harrison
CHWNo92Zack
Greinke
9.4%+965
J.T.
Realmuto
PHINo110Edward
Cabrera
9.4%+965
Amed
Rosario
CLENo99Garrett
Hill
9.3%+975
Brandon
Marsh
PHIYes106Edward
Cabrera
9.3%+980
Kyle
Farmer
CINYes111Drew
Smyly
9.1%+995
Ryan
McMahon
COLYes109Dakota
Hudson
8.6%+1060
Christian
Arroyo
BOSNo99Dean
Kremer
8.5%+1070
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes92Zack
Greinke
8.1%+1125
Ben
Gamel
PITYes99Merrill
Kelly
7.9%+1165
Jake
McCarthy
ARIYes99JT
Brubaker
7.9%+1165
Cal
Mitchell
PITYes99Merrill
Kelly
7.9%+1165
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSNo99Dean
Kremer
7.7%+1190
Miguel
Rojas
MIANo110Kyle
Gibson
7.7%+1205
Lewin
Diaz
MIAYes106Kyle
Gibson
7.6%+1220
Tyler
O'Neill
STLNo108German
Marquez
7.5%+1230
Hunter
Dozier
KCNo92Dylan
Cease
7.2%+1280
Seby
Zavala
CHWNo92Zack
Greinke
7.2%+1280
Luke
Maile
CLENo99Garrett
Hill
7.0%+1340
Jorge
Mateo
BALNo99Josh
Winckowski
7.0%+1340
Oscar
Gonzalez
CLENo99Garrett
Hill
7.0%+1340
Sam
Hilliard
COLYes109Dakota
Hudson
6.9%+1355
Dylan
Carlson
STLYes109German
Marquez
6.9%+1355
Alec
Bohm
PHINo110Edward
Cabrera
6.8%+1375
Nick
Fortes
MIANo110Kyle
Gibson
6.8%+1375
Elehuris
Montero
COLNo108Dakota
Hudson
6.7%+1400
Brian
Serven
COLNo108Dakota
Hudson
6.7%+1400
Kevin
Newman
PITNo93Merrill
Kelly
6.6%+1425
Nico
Hoerner
CHCYes111Nick
Lodolo
6.3%+1490
Tucupita
Marcano
PITYes99Merrill
Kelly
6.3%+1495