MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 8/11/22

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.

For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies

Over 8.0 (-105): 3-Star Rating Out of 5

Our model strongly backs the over in today's afternoon clash between the Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies. While we think both offenses will fare well, we have Philly doing most of the work to get this one to the over.

The Phillies are taking on Edward Cabrera. A promising younger pitcher who has flashed big-time stuff, Cabrera is far from a pushover. But he's allowed 1.53 jacks per nine for his career and was allowed to toss just 78 pitches last time out, his first outing off the IL. He'll surely be on a pretty tight leash in this one, and that means more of a Miami 'pen that has the 12th-worst reliever xFIP (4.26) over the last 14 days.

Miami's offense is up against Kyle Gibson. The owner of a 4.26 SIERA and 18.4% strikeout rate, Gibson shouldn't overpower Miami's bats. And once Gibson is out of the game, the Marlins can have success against a Phils bullpen that is 10th-worst in reliever xFIP (4.32) over the past 14 days.

We have Philly winning the game by a score of 5.43-4.32. That's 9.75 total runs, and we think the over wins out 60.6% of the time. It's a three-star bet (three-unit recommendation), according to our algorithm.

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals

Over 8.0 (-105): 3-Star Rating Out of 5

Let's get this out of the way early -- Dylan Cease is probably going to mow through the Kansas City Royals. But our numbers still like the over.

Zack Greinke pitching for KC is a big reason why we should be into the over. Greinke barely has anything left in the tank. He's pitched to a 4.83 SIERA and 13.1% strikeout rate. He's been worse as the season has gone on, too, giving up a .353 wOBA in July while conceding 1.50 homers per nine.

The good outlook for the hitters of the Chicago White Sox doesn't end when Greinke is removed from the game. Kansas City's bullpen has been brutal all year. They have the worst xFIP for the season (4.51) and the sixth-worst mark over the last 30 days (4.24). It's all systems go for Chicago's offense, and we project them to score 5.35 runs.

That means we don't need a whole lot from Kansas City's sticks, and that's a good thing. They're a poor offense going up against one of the best pitchers in baseball.

Admittedly, it's hard to find much that points to anything other than Cease cruising. But baseball is weird, and Cease still walks a decent amount of guys, registering a 10.5% walk rate this season. He's also punched out just 16 over 18 innings across his last three starts. We have Kansas City plating a respectable 4.27 runs.

So, in all, our model projects a final score of 5.35-4.27 -- a total of 9.62 runs. We give the over a 67.2% chance to cash and mark it as a three-star wager.