MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 8/10/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Tigers Moneyline (+152): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model sees some value on -- gasp -- the Detroit Tigers.
The Tigers are taking on the Cleveland Guardians and righty Aaron Civale. Detroit's offensive struggles, particularly versus righties, have been well documented. With that said, Civale isn't a pitcher to fear. He's sporting a meager 20.5% strikeout rate in 178 1/3 frames since the start of 2021. He's allowed 1.56 dingers per nine in that time thanks to a 38.0% fly-ball rate.
Detroit is countering with Drew Hutchison. He isn't good, either, recording ugly marks of a 14.6% strikeout rate and 11.3% walk rate this season. However, he's been OK lately, permitting just three earned runs across his last two outings (11 innings), and the matchup against a Cleveland offense that is 21st in wOBA (.294) over the last 14 days isn't a bad one.
While we project the Guardians to win this game 55.8% of the time, there's value in taking Detroit on the moneyline. Their +152 price implies win odds of 39.7%, but we give them a 44.2% chance to win. We rate it as a one-star wager (one-unit recommendation).
Over 8.5 (-122): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Cueto is toting a 2.91 ERA, but that's mostly a mirage. He owns a 3.99 expected ERA with a 4.40 SIERA. The veteran right-hander is striking out only 16.6% of hitters while allowing a 38.0% fly-ball rate. The Kansas City Royals' bats should be able to have a solid night, and we project them to score 4.95 runs.
The Chicago White Sox can do even more damage offensively. Bubic, a lefty, has a meh 21.7% strikeout rate against righties, and he has a tall task today versus a Chicago lineup that will feature the likes of Jose Abreu, Luis Robert, Andrew Vaughn and Eloy Jimenez -- all right-handed hitters. We have the Pale Hose plating 5.57 runs.
That's 10.52 total runs -- well over the listed total. Our model projects the over to cash 66.9% of the time and hands it a three-star rating.