MLB
MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Monday 8/8/22
Betting MLB player props or playing daily fantasy baseball? See who is most likely to homer, rack up the most strikeouts, and score the most runs today.

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
NYM Justin
Dunn
8.5 5.30 43.7% 28.3% 16.7% 8.9% 4.4%
TOR Jordan
Lyles
9.5 5.14 40.9% 25.9% 14.8% 7.8% 3.7%
ARI Tyler
Beede
8.0 4.75 34.0% 20.2% 10.9% 5.3% 2.4%
SD Alex
Wood
8.0 4.50 29.7% 16.9% 8.7% 4.0% 1.7%
BAL Yusei
Kikuchi
9.5 4.36 27.3% 15.1% 7.6% 3.4% 1.4%
CHC Anibal
Sanchez
7.5 4.25 25.5% 13.8% 6.7% 3.0% 1.2%
NYY Logan
Gilbert
7.5 3.89 19.8% 10.0% 4.5% 1.8% 0.7%
OAK Jose
Suarez
7.0 3.61 15.7% 7.4% 3.1% 1.2% 0.4%
SEA Jameson
Taillon
7.5 3.61 15.7% 7.4% 3.1% 1.2% 0.4%
SF Blake
Snell
8.0 3.50 14.2% 6.5% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3%
LAA Cole
Irvin
7.0 3.39 12.8% 5.7% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3%
PIT Zac
Gallen
8.0 3.25 11.1% 4.8% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%
WSH Keegan
Thompson
7.5 3.25 11.1% 4.8% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%
CIN Chris
Bassitt
8.5 3.20 10.5% 4.5% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Chris
Bassitt
CIN 6.6 89.7% 79.1% 65.0% 49.4% 34.6% 22.4% 13.4%
Blake
Snell
SF 6.4 88.3% 76.8% 62.1% 46.2% 31.7% 20.0% 11.7%
Zac
Gallen
PIT 5.3 77.8% 61.5% 44.2% 28.7% 17.0% 9.2% 4.5%
Alex
Wood
SD 5.2 76.3% 59.6% 42.1% 26.9% 15.6% 8.3% 4.0%
Logan
Gilbert
NYY 5.1 75.3% 58.2% 40.7% 25.7% 14.7% 7.7% 3.7%
Jordan
Lyles
TOR 4.8 70.9% 52.7% 35.2% 21.2% 11.5% 5.7% 2.6%
Jameson
Taillon
SEA 4.8 70.3% 52.0% 34.6% 20.6% 11.1% 5.5% 2.5%
Keegan
Thompson
WSH 4.6 66.8% 47.9% 30.7% 17.7% 9.2% 4.3% 1.9%
Yusei
Kikuchi
BAL 4.3 62.6% 43.3% 26.7% 14.7% 7.3% 3.2% 1.3%
Cole
Irvin
LAA 4.3 62.3% 43.0% 26.3% 14.4% 7.1% 3.2% 1.3%
Jose
Suarez
OAK 4.1 58.2% 38.7% 22.7% 11.9% 5.6% 2.4% 0.9%
Anibal
Sanchez
CHC 4.0 57.4% 37.9% 22.1% 11.5% 5.4% 2.3% 0.9%
Justin
Dunn
NYM 3.5 47.0% 28.0% 14.6% 6.8% 2.8% 1.0% 0.4%
Tyler
Beede
ARI 3.5 45.5% 26.7% 13.7% 6.2% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Aaron
Judge
NYY No 99 Logan
Gilbert
31.8% +215
Eugenio
Suarez
SEA No 99 Jameson
Taillon
25.4% +295
Vladimir
Guerrero Jr.
TOR No 112 Jordan
Lyles
24.2% +315
Danny
Jansen
TOR No 112 Jordan
Lyles
23.1% +330
Anthony
Santander
BAL Yes 112 Yusei
Kikuchi
23.1% +335
Ryan
Mountcastle
BAL Yes 112 Yusei
Kikuchi
23.1% +335
Teoscar
Hernandez
TOR No 112 Jordan
Lyles
22.6% +340
Pete
Alonso
NYM No 98 Justin
Dunn
22.5% +345
Ramon
Urias
BAL Yes 112 Yusei
Kikuchi
22.5% +345
Nelson
Velazquez
CHC No 103 Anibal
Sanchez
22.3% +350
Matt
Chapman
TOR No 112 Jordan
Lyles
20.9% +380
Willson
Contreras
CHC No 103 Anibal
Sanchez
20.8% +380
Anthony
Rizzo
NYY Yes 96 Logan
Gilbert
20.1% +400
Luke
Voit
WSH No 103 Keegan
Thompson
19.7% +410
Shohei
Ohtani
LAA No 92 Cole
Irvin
19.6% +410
Brandon
Drury
SD Yes 96 Alex
Wood
19.6% +410
Bo
Bichette
TOR No 112 Jordan
Lyles
19.1% +425
Patrick
Wisdom
CHC No 103 Anibal
Sanchez
19.1% +425
Christian
Walker
ARI No 93 Tyler
Beede
18.7% +435
Christopher
Morel
CHC No 103 Anibal
Sanchez
18.5% +440
Taylor
Ward
LAA Yes 94 Cole
Irvin
18.2% +450
Gleyber
Torres
NYY No 99 Logan
Gilbert
17.4% +475
Wilmer
Flores
SF Yes 96 Blake
Snell
17.2% +480
Josh
Donaldson
NYY No 99 Logan
Gilbert
16.8% +495
Kyle
Lewis
SEA No 99 Jameson
Taillon
16.8% +495
Jorge
Mateo
BAL Yes 112 Yusei
Kikuchi
16.6% +500
Tyler
Naquin
NYM Yes 95 Justin
Dunn
16.5% +505
Dan
Vogelbach
NYM Yes 95 Justin
Dunn
16.5% +505
Bryan
Reynolds
PIT Yes 99 Zac
Gallen
16.5% +505
Ramon
Laureano
OAK Yes 94 Jose
Suarez
16.3% +510
Ian
Happ
CHC Yes 96 Anibal
Sanchez
16.1% +525
Adley
Rutschman
BAL Yes 112 Yusei
Kikuchi
15.9% +530
Ketel
Marte
ARI Yes 99 Tyler
Beede
15.8% +530
Seiya
Suzuki
CHC No 103 Anibal
Sanchez
15.4% +550
Manny
Machado
SD Yes 96 Alex
Wood
15.3% +550
Francisco
Lindor
NYM Yes 95 Justin
Dunn
15.3% +555
Max
Stassi
LAA Yes 94 Cole
Irvin
15.1% +565
Jonathan
India
CIN No 98 Chris
Bassitt
14.8% +575
Lane
Thomas
WSH No 103 Keegan
Thompson
14.7% +580
Jake
Fraley
CIN Yes 95 Chris
Bassitt
14.7% +580
Oneil
Cruz
PIT Yes 99 Zac
Gallen
14.5% +590
Stephen
Piscotty
OAK Yes 94 Jose
Suarez
14.4% +595
Jarred
Kelenic
SEA Yes 96 Jameson
Taillon
14.2% +605
Cal
Raleigh
SEA Yes 96 Jameson
Taillon
14.2% +605
Joey
Votto
CIN Yes 95 Chris
Bassitt
14.0% +615
Sean
Murphy
OAK Yes 94 Jose
Suarez
13.7% +625
Jared
Walsh
LAA No 92 Cole
Irvin
13.4% +650
Jake
Cronenworth
SD No 95 Alex
Wood
13.2% +660
Daulton
Varsho
ARI Yes 99 Tyler
Beede
13.2% +660
Ty
France
SEA No 99 Jameson
Taillon
12.9% +675
Carlos
Santana
SEA Yes 96 Jameson
Taillon
12.8% +680
Rafael
Ortega
CHC Yes 96 Anibal
Sanchez
12.1% +725
Trent
Grisham
SD No 95 Alex
Wood
12.0% +730
Alejandro
Kirk
TOR No 112 Jordan
Lyles
12.0% +735
Alek
Thomas
ARI Yes 99 Tyler
Beede
11.7% +750
Chad
Pinder
OAK Yes 94 Jose
Suarez
11.6% +760
Jo
Adell
LAA Yes 94 Cole
Irvin
11.6% +760
Carson
Kelly
ARI No 93 Tyler
Beede
11.6% +765
Jose
Trevino
NYY No 99 Logan
Gilbert
11.5% +770
Yadiel
Hernandez
WSH Yes 96 Keegan
Thompson
11.4% +775
Donovan
Solano
CIN No 98 Chris
Bassitt
11.4% +775
Victor
Robles
WSH No 103 Keegan
Thompson
11.2% +795
Josh
Bell
SD Yes 96 Alex
Wood
11.1% +800
Thairo
Estrada
SF Yes 96 Blake
Snell
11.1% +800
DJ
LeMahieu
NYY No 99 Logan
Gilbert
10.8% +830
Jesse
Winker
SEA Yes 96 Jameson
Taillon
10.7% +835
Lourdes
Gurriel
TOR No 112 Jordan
Lyles
10.4% +865
Jorge
Alfaro
SD Yes 96 Alex
Wood
10.4% +865
J.D.
Davis
SF Yes 96 Blake
Snell
10.4% +865
Juan
Soto
SD No 95 Alex
Wood
10.3% +875
Jake
McCarthy
ARI Yes 99 Tyler
Beede
10.3% +875
Luis
Rengifo
LAA Yes 94 Cole
Irvin
10.2% +885
Starling
Marte
NYM No 98 Justin
Dunn
10.0% +905
Brandon
Nimmo
NYM Yes 95 Justin
Dunn
9.9% +910
Brandon
Belt
SF No 95 Blake
Snell
9.7% +935
Nelson
Cruz
WSH No 103 Keegan
Thompson
9.6% +940
Austin
Slater
SF Yes 96 Blake
Snell
9.6% +940
Seth
Brown
OAK No 92 Jose
Suarez
9.4% +965
Luis
Gonzalez
SF Yes 96 Blake
Snell
8.8% +1035
Joey
Bart
SF Yes 96 Blake
Snell
8.8% +1035
Ben
Gamel
PIT Yes 99 Zac
Gallen
8.7% +1050
Santiago
Espinal
TOR No 112 Jordan
Lyles
8.7% +1055
Luis
Guillorme
NYM Yes 95 Justin
Dunn
8.4% +1090
Robinson
Chirinos
BAL Yes 112 Yusei
Kikuchi
8.3% +1110
Cedric
Mullins
BAL Yes 112 Yusei
Kikuchi
8.3% +1110
Ryan
McKenna
BAL Yes 112 Yusei
Kikuchi
8.3% +1110
Nico
Hoerner
CHC No 103 Anibal
Sanchez
8.0% +1145
Jurickson
Profar
SD Yes 96 Alex
Wood
8.0% +1150
Josh
Rojas
ARI Yes 99 Tyler
Beede
7.9% +1165
David
Fletcher
LAA Yes 94 Cole
Irvin
7.9% +1175
Jeff
McNeil
NYM Yes 95 Justin
Dunn
7.6% +1210
Maikel
Franco
WSH No 103 Keegan
Thompson
7.2% +1285
Luis
Garcia
WSH No 103 Keegan
Thompson
7.2% +1285
Elvis
Andrus
OAK Yes 94 Jose
Suarez
7.0% +1320
Jed
Lowrie
OAK Yes 94 Jose
Suarez
7.0% +1320
Aaron
Hicks
NYY Yes 96 Logan
Gilbert
6.9% +1350
Cesar
Hernandez
WSH Yes 96 Keegan
Thompson
6.9% +1350
Keibert
Ruiz
WSH Yes 96 Keegan
Thompson
6.9% +1350
Aristides
Aquino
CIN No 98 Chris
Bassitt
6.9% +1350
Jose
Barrero
CIN No 98 Chris
Bassitt
6.9% +1350
Mike
Moustakas
CIN Yes 95 Chris
Bassitt
6.8% +1365
Ha-Seong
Kim
SD Yes 96 Alex
Wood
6.3% +1475
Cal
Mitchell
PIT Yes 99 Zac
Gallen
6.3% +1495
Bligh
Madris
PIT Yes 99 Zac
Gallen
6.3% +1495

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