FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Sunday 8/7/22
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Corbin Burnes ($11,300)
Milwaukee's hard-throwing right-hander is today's most expensive option among Sunday's 18 pitchers against a Cincinnati Reds' team with a .273 weighted on-base average (wOBA) including six hitters with K-rates over 21.2% and contact rates under 73.7% in their last 322 plate appearances.
In his second largest sample size as a starter, Burnes has almost replicated his breakout 2021 season, accounting for a 2.89 expected Fielding Independent Pitching rating (xFIP), a 32.3% strikeout percentage, and a 15.9% swinging strike rate.
Even at his highest salary point this season, the Brewers' ace still ranks second in value with a 3.71 rating and first overall with a 42.0 FanDuel point projection and 8.45 strikeouts.
Aaron Nola ($10,800)
In a divisional matchup versus a watered down Washington Nationals' lineup with a .305 weighted on-base average and a 27.3% K-rate, Nola ranks first in value with a 3.77 rating and second overall with a 40.8 fantasy projection.
Overall through 138.2 innings, the Phillies' right-hander is on pace for his best full season, recording a 2.97 xFIP, a 28.2% strikeout rate, and a 11.9% swinging strike rate.
With today's second highest strikeout prediction at 8.04, Nola should have various opportunities to exceed his expected number versus six projected batters with K-rates over 20.6% and contact metrics under 78.3%.
Kevin Gausman ($10,500)
After a 64 fantasy point performance in his last start, Gausman's FanDuel salary has moved up 1.9% to his third highest point this season.
In a middling matchup against a Minnesota Twins' lineup with a projected 24.7% strikeout percentage and a .328 wOBA, numberFire's models expect Gausman to record today's third best performance with at 33.9 FanDuel points and 6.55 strikeouts.
Cory Abbott will make his third career start in a challenging spot against a Philadelphia lineup with a 5.6 expected team total and a .316 wOBA.
In his second Major League stint, the 26-year old has struggled to establish himself through 26.1 innings, recording an ugly 5.86 xFIP, a low 17.8% strikeout percentage, and a generous 11.9% walk rate.
With obvious trouble against left-handed bats (6.50 expected FIP), Phillies' correlations can be built around Kyle Schwarber (21.3% barrel rate, .550 expected slugging), Darick Hall (20.3% barrel percentage, .532 expected slugging), Brandon Marsh (7.5% barrel rate), and Garrett Stubbs (7.5% barrel rate) while Nick Castellanos (7.1% barrel rate) and Alec Bohm (.446 expected slugging, .341 expected wOBA), and Rhys Hoskins (12.1% barrel rate, .470 expected slugging) also rate well enough to be mixed in.
While Wilson is due for some positive regression when comparing his 4.57 xFIP to his 6.20 Earned Run Average, Baltimore's left-handed bats are a priority on Sunday afternoon when examining his career 5.88 xFIP in this particular split.
With this main weakness in mind, Cedric Mullins (37.4% hard hit rate), Adley Rutschman (.348 expected wOBA, .417 expected slugging), Terrin Vavra (.386 expected wOBA, .310 expected average), and Rougned Odor (7.2% barrel rate) fit in a potential stack while Anthony Santander (9.7% barrel rate, .440 expected slugging) and Ryan Mountcastle (13% barrel rate, .483 expected slugging) provide pop from the right side.
In a matchup against Chris Archer, the Blue Jays are in a great spot to bomb barrels against a regressing right-hander with a shaky 4.88 xFIP and a gross 12.7% walk rate.
With overall neutral splits, any combination of Toronto's power hitters with patience could work into a potential stack including Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (11.2% barrel percentage, .371 expected wOBA), Alejandro Kirk (.370 expected wOBA, .470 expected slugging), Matt Chapman (14.7% barrel percentage, .347 expected wOBA), and Teoscar Hernandez (.355 expected wOBA, 13.3% barrel rate).