3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 8/5/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Teoscar Hernandez to Hit a Home Run (+360)
One of the most likely homer candidates of the night according to numberFire's projections, Teoscar Hernandez is a pretty clear value at +360 odds to go deep in Minnesota. The projections think his odds should be around +285. Whew.
When he gets one in the air (he has a 34.2% fly-ball rate, it's usually tagged, as 53.3% of his fly-balls classify as hard-hit).
Bryan Reynolds to Hit a Home Run (+420)
He'll have a platoon advantage against righty Dean Kremer, who has a career 48.3% fly-ball rate and a 32.7% hard-hit rate allowed. Those numbers in 2022 alone across 220 batters faced are 45.9% and 31.1%, respectively.
Speaking of 420, Kremer's slugging percentage allowed of .420 is misleading: his expected slugging allowed is actually .483.
Reynolds' fly-ball rate is 39.9% against righties this season, though the hard-hit rate is down (29.2%) from his career average (36.8%).
Helping matters is playing in Baltimore, a homer-friendly park.
Robbie Ray Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-110)
His strikeout prop of 7.5, though, seems a bit high.
While, yes, the Angels' active roster holds a lowly 85 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, the strikeout rate of 22.3% is just middling.
Ray's 27.5% strikeout rate is higher than his called-strike-plus-whiff rate (26.7%). Since 2020, among 138 qualified pitchers, only 22 of them (around 16.0%) have had a higher CSW% than K%.
Ray should be closer to a 21.1% strikeout rate based on these peripherals, a difference of 6.4 points -- which is the third-largest overperformance since 2020.