MLB Betting Guide: Friday 8/5/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins
Twins +1.5 (-150): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Twins Moneyline (+110): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model is viewing the Minnesota Twins as slight favorites (56.3%) in this matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays.
Toronto got the 9-3 win last night in the series opener, and they'll be starting Jose Berrios (8-4, 4.96 ERA, 5.17 expected ERA) against Tyler Mahle (5-7, 4.40 ERA, 3.20 expected ERA) in his Twins debut.
The Twins' active roster holds a 121 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, tied for third-best in the Majors, while the Blue Jays are no slouch either at a 113.
However, the underlying pitching data does prefer Mahle to Berrios, and the Twins' bats should be able to take advantage.
Our model views them as 68.0% likely to cover the run line (good for an expected return of 13.4%).
Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals
Over 9.0 (-115): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Royals +1.5 (-170): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Royals Moneyline (-102): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
We're getting a matchup in this spot between two pitchers with poor peripherals.
Josh Winckowski (4-5, 5.00 ERA, 4.49 expected ERA) is getting the nod for the Boston Red Sox, and it's Zack Greinke (3-6, 4.41 ERA, 5.48 expected ERA) for the Kansas City Royals in a matchup between righties.
The Red Sox have a 101 wRC+ against righties this season, and the Royals are at a weaker 91 but rank ninth in the Bigs in hard-hit rate (31.5%) against righties.
That plays part in liking the over, and while the odds are -115 on the 9.0 mark, that's indicating movement without being too prohibitive.
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks
Over 8.5 (-102): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
The model is signaling value on the over in this matchup between the Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks.
Righty German Marquez (6-9, 5.29 ERA, 4.74 expected ERA) and lefty Madison Bumgarner (6-10, 3.83 ERA, 4.97 expected ERA) seem a good mile apart in ERA but not in expected ERA.
In fact, among 129 pitchers with at least 200 balls in play this season, Bumgarner's expected ERA differential is 10th-highest, meaning he's being rewarded for poor peripherals more than almost anyone else.
The Rockies boast a 99 wRC+ and a 30.2% hard-hit rate against lefties. Those league-average rates should do well enough in the promising matchup.
As for the Arizona bats, they're sixth in hard-hit rate (32.6%) despite a poor wRC+ of 86.
Our model thinks this game is 61.1% likely to go over.
