3 Daily Fantasy Baseball Stacks for Friday 8/5/22
Stacks are an integral part of daily fantasy baseball. They can push a team to the top of a GPP by driving upside. However, they're also viable in cash games, namely smaller (two-person or three-person) stacks that mitigate the volatility of a full four-person stack.
This article is your home throughout the 2022 Major League Baseball season for the day's top stacks. The primary goal is to identify the highest-scoring upside stack. Still, game theory will play a role in contrarian stacks making the cut as GPP options. Nevertheless, chalky stacks will make appearances in this space, too.
Beyond my analysis in this space, I strongly suggest numberFire premium members using our DFS Sharpstack tool and hitting heat map tool. The DFS Sharpstack helps plug stacks into optimized lineups, allowing you to change parameters and lock or exclude players and teams. Meanwhile, the heat map offers a one-stop-shop for the opposing starting pitcher, implied total, park factor, and other notable goodies.
Now, let's look at the top stacks on today's main slate.
The Milwaukee Brewers have the most desirable pitching matchup on Friday's slate. According to FanGraphs, Robert Dugger has had a 6.97 ERA and 5.57 xFIP while allowing 1.74 homers per nine innings in 82 and 2/3 innings (14 starts and 12 relief appearances) in his big-league career.
In Triple-A, he's had a 4.30 ERA and 4.82 FIP this year. Moreover, in 181 and 1/3 innings in Triple-A in his career, Dugger has been trounced for a 5.96 ERA, 5.40 FIP, 1.47 WHIP, and ceded 1.54 homers per nine innings. The 27-year-old isn't a big-league caliber starter.
Further, the Cincinnati Reds' bullpen is a punching bag the Brewers can beat up tonight. Cincinnati's 5.13 ERA for relievers is MLB's highest mark -- significantly higher than the second-highest ERA (4.67).
Milwaukee should feast tonight, and Rowdy Tellez ($3,600) is my favorite piece of their stack. In 201 plate appearances against righties at American Family Field, Tellez has had a .307 ISO and ripped 14 homers. Willy Adames ($3,700) is another attractive piece of the Beer Makers. He's muscled up for a .267 ISO and 17 dongs in 255 plate appearances versus righties at home since joining the Brewers in a trade last season.
New York Yankees
The New York Yankees have a sweet draw against Dakota Hudson tonight. The righty's 4.10 ERA this year paints the picture of a middling starter. However, his 5.45 Expected ERA (xERA), 4.89 xFIP, and 5.20 SIERA are harbingers of regression to his already underwhelming ERA.
Hudson is also playing with fire with his approach. The righty has a putrid 12.8 percent strikeout rate and 10.4 percent walk rate. He has also struggled in same-handed matchups, allowing a .343 wOBA to right-handed batters this season.
The high-powered Bronx Bombers should destroy Hudson tonight. New York's lineup should feature at least five hitters with a 115 wRC+ or better against righties since last year and another with a 106 wRC+. So, they're talented and deep.
Still, Aaron Judge ($5,300) is the no-doubt best option in this stack. Since last year, he's pulverized righties, owning a .379 OBP, .299 ISO, and 167 wRC+.
The Minnesota Twins are the only suggested stack with a potentially tricky matchup. But, of course, that depends on which version of Jose Berrios toes the slab in his old stomping grounds. In the righty's last six starts, he hasn't allowed more than three runs while spinning a 3.00 ERA and 3.02 xFIP. However, Berrios has gobbled up some cupcakes during his recent stellar stretch.
Moreover, he was a tire fire through 15 starts, sporting a 5.86 ERA and 4.38 xFIP while coughing up 1.95 homers per nine innings. Overall, among qualified pitchers this season, Berrios has the third-highest xERA (5.17) and highest homer rate (1.73 homers per nine innings). So, it's not hard to envision the Twins ripping Berrios if he reverts to pre-July form.
Berrios has also been terrorized by lefties this year, coughing up a .358 wOBA to them. He hasn't been any great shakes against righties, either, allowing a .326 wOBA. So, using Carlos Correa ($3,000) and Byron Buxton ($4,100) is fine in this stack. However, Jorge Polanco ($3,200) is the apple of my eye. The switch-hitting Polanco has had a .238 ISO and 133 wRC+ against righties since last year.
Luis Arraez ($2,900) and Nick Gordon ($2,200) are two players with cap-friendly salaries who I dig, too. Arraez has had a 129 wRC+ against righties since last year. Gordon has had just a 99 wRC+ against righties since 2021, but he's made significant strides in his second season in the majors. This season, the left-handed-hitting Gordon has had a 110 wRC+ against righties. So again, the Twins aren't a safe stack, but they're a high-upside option in GPPs.
Joshua Shepardson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Joshua Shepardson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username bchad50. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.