3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 8/4/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Rhys Hoskins To Hit a Home Run (+260)/Darick Hall To Hit a Home Run (+350)
The Philadelphia Phillies have a juicy matchup for some home runs tonight.
With a slate-high 5.31 implied run total, the Phillies are going to be a popular team for some player props. Right from the jump, I have to note one thing -- I'm not including Kyle Schwarber, and it needs an explanation. Schwarber is a great home run hitter, and this is truly an unbelievable matchup for him.
However, Schwarber's home run odds are sitting at +182, which are incredibly low. All of the metrics point to this being a clear spot for Schwarber to hit one over the wall, but the odds are too low for me.
This is an elite matchup because Paolo Espino is on the mound for the Washington Nationals, a pitcher we should be excited to see on the slate. That is because he comes in allowing a .403 SLG, 4.42 xFIP, 1.42 HR/9, 48.5% fly-ball rate, and 39.0% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters. It's much of the same versus right-handed hitters for Espino, as he is allowing a .514 SLG, 4.48 xFIP, 2.06 HR/9, 44.7% fly-ball rate, and 31.6% hard-contact rate.
This leads us to Rhys Hoskins, who comes with a 108 wRC+, .327 wOBA, .203 ISO, 37.3% fly-ball rate, and 32.4% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. Next up is Darick Hall, who comes in with a 137 wRC+, .369 wOBA, .276 ISO, 44.3% fly-ball rate, and 39.3% hard-contact rate against righties.
Of course, I'm always adding Hoskins To Record an RBI (+120) and Hall To Record an RBI (+110), too.
Ji-Man Choi To Record an RBI (+165)
The Tampa Bay Rays are another team with a great matchup.
They are going up against Drew Hutchison, which is why we see the Rays rocking a 4.79 implied run total tonight. This season, Hutchinson is allowing a .395 SLG, 5.34 xFIP, 1.33 HR/9, 49.2% fly-ball rate, and 28.8% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters. This puts the Rays in a spot to pour in plenty of runs, and that leads us to an RBI prop.
That prop belongs to Ji-Man Choi, who has solid numbers versus right-handers. This season, he is carrying a 123 wRC+, .332 wOBA, .167 ISO, 14.8% walk rate, and 33.3% fly-ball rate. He normally hits in the top portion of the lineup for the Rays and will have plenty of chances to knock in a runner.
Kyle Tucker 2+ Total Bases (+100)
Another plus money prop for a great hitter. That would be Kyle Tucker to record 2+ total bases at even money.
The Houston Astros have a 4.52 implied run total and are on the road to take on Zach Plesac of the Cleveland Guardians. Plesac is a rather mediocre pitcher, sporting a 5.52 xFIP, .465 SLG, .361 wOBA, 1.65 HR/9, and 43.2% fly-ball rate allowed versus lefties this season.
This puts Tucker in a truly favorable matchup with his 139 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .226 ISO, 48.6% fly-ball rate, and 33.9% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. I will also be looking to add Tucker To Record an RBI (+105) since the matchup is favorable, and the Astros are primed for some runs tonight.
