MLB
MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Wednesday 8/3/22
Betting MLB player props or playing daily fantasy baseball? See who is most likely to homer, rack up the most strikeouts, and score the most runs today.

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
NYMAnibal
Sanchez
9.05.3744.9%29.4%17.5%9.5%4.7%
CLEMadison
Bumgarner
8.55.0138.6%23.9%13.4%6.9%3.2%
HOUBrayan
Bello
8.54.9337.2%22.8%12.6%6.4%2.9%
MILTyler
Beede
8.54.9337.2%22.8%12.6%6.4%2.9%
MINTyler
Alexander
8.54.9337.2%22.8%12.6%6.4%2.9%
STLJustin
Steele
8.54.6933.0%19.4%10.3%5.0%2.2%
CHWBrady
Singer
8.54.6231.8%18.5%9.7%4.6%2.0%
TEXKyle
Bradish
8.04.3527.2%15.0%7.5%3.4%1.4%
NYYLuis
Castillo
7.54.2525.5%13.8%6.7%3.0%1.2%
LAAJames
Kaprielian
7.04.1523.9%12.7%6.1%2.6%1.0%
LADAlex
Cobb
7.54.1023.1%12.1%5.7%2.4%1.0%
TORJalen
Beeks
8.04.0422.1%11.5%5.4%2.3%0.9%
MIAMike
Minor
7.04.0021.5%11.1%5.1%2.1%0.8%
ATLZack
Wheeler
7.53.9921.3%11.0%5.1%2.1%0.8%
TBYusei
Kikuchi
8.03.9620.9%10.7%4.9%2.0%0.8%
KCLance
Lynn
8.53.8819.6%9.9%4.4%1.8%0.7%
CHCMiles
Mikolas
8.53.8118.6%9.2%4.1%1.6%0.6%
BALMartin
Perez
8.03.6516.3%7.7%3.3%1.3%0.4%
WSHChris
Bassitt
9.03.6316.0%7.6%3.2%1.2%0.4%
BOSJose
Urquidy
8.53.5715.2%7.1%3.0%1.1%0.4%
DETJoe
Ryan
8.53.5715.2%7.1%3.0%1.1%0.4%
PITFreddy
Peralta
8.53.5715.2%7.1%3.0%1.1%0.4%
PHICharlie
Morton
7.53.5114.4%6.6%2.7%1.0%0.3%
ARIShane
Bieber
8.53.4914.1%6.5%2.6%1.0%0.3%
SFJulio
Urias
7.53.4012.9%5.8%2.3%0.8%0.3%
SEAGerrit
Cole
7.53.2511.1%4.8%1.8%0.6%0.2%
CINSandy
Alcantara
7.03.008.4%3.4%1.2%0.4%0.1%
OAKShohei
Ohtani
7.02.857.0%2.7%0.9%0.3%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Shohei
Ohtani
OAK7.995.6%89.6%80.2%67.8%53.7%39.8%27.5%
Gerrit
Cole
SEA7.493.6%86.0%74.6%60.7%45.9%32.3%21.1%
Sandy
Alcantara
CIN7.091.7%82.4%69.5%54.6%39.7%26.7%16.6%
Shane
Bieber
ARI6.789.9%79.5%65.5%50.0%35.2%22.9%13.8%
Blake
Snell
COL6.689.4%78.6%64.4%48.8%34.0%21.9%13.0%
Chris
Bassitt
WSH6.588.9%77.7%63.2%47.5%32.9%21.0%12.3%
Charlie
Morton
PHI6.487.7%75.9%60.9%45.0%30.5%19.1%11.0%
Zack
Wheeler
ATL6.387.4%75.4%60.3%44.3%30.0%18.6%10.7%
Brady
Singer
CHW5.983.9%70.0%53.6%37.6%24.1%14.2%7.7%
Luis
Castillo
NYY5.983.6%69.6%53.2%37.1%23.7%13.9%7.5%
Ralph
Garza
Jr.
TOR5.782.4%67.9%51.2%35.2%22.1%12.7%6.7%
Lance
Lynn
KC5.680.4%65.0%48.0%32.2%19.7%11.0%5.6%
Alex
Cobb
LAD5.478.7%62.7%45.4%29.8%17.8%9.7%4.9%
Jose
Urquidy
BOS5.378.0%61.7%44.3%28.9%17.1%9.3%4.6%
Joe
Ryan
DET5.276.6%59.9%42.4%27.2%15.8%8.4%4.1%
Julio
Urias
SF5.276.2%59.4%41.9%26.8%15.5%8.2%4.0%
Martin
Perez
BAL5.073.6%56.1%38.6%23.9%13.4%6.9%3.2%
Freddy
Peralta
PIT5.072.9%55.2%37.7%23.2%12.9%6.6%3.0%
Miles
Mikolas
CHC4.972.2%54.4%36.8%22.5%12.4%6.2%2.9%
Justin
Steele
STL4.870.3%52.0%34.6%20.6%11.1%5.5%2.5%
Mike
Minor
MIA4.667.1%48.3%31.1%17.9%9.3%4.4%1.9%
Yusei
Kikuchi
TB4.566.3%47.4%30.2%17.3%8.9%4.2%1.8%
Kyle
Bradish
TEX4.464.4%45.3%28.3%15.9%8.0%3.7%1.5%
Chad
Kuhl
SD4.362.5%43.1%26.5%14.5%7.2%3.2%1.3%
James
Kaprielian
LAA3.955.5%35.9%20.6%10.5%4.8%2.0%0.7%
Anibal
Sanchez
NYM3.853.3%33.8%18.9%9.4%4.2%1.7%0.6%
Brayan
Bello
HOU3.546.3%27.5%14.2%6.5%2.7%1.0%0.3%
Tommy
Henry
CLE3.443.7%25.2%12.7%5.6%2.2%0.8%0.3%
Tyler
Alexander
MIN2.933.9%17.5%7.8%3.1%1.1%0.3%0.1%
Tyler
Beede
MIL2.217.9%7.1%2.4%0.7%0.2%0.0%0.0%
Jalen
Beeks
TOR1.811.2%3.8%1.1%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Pete
Alonso
NYMNo106Anibal
Sanchez
28.0%+255
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUYes102Brayan
Bello
27.0%+270
Shohei
Ohtani
LAAYes108James
Kaprielian
25.4%+295
Jeremy
Pena
HOUNo101Brayan
Bello
23.9%+320
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes101Kyle
Bradish
23.8%+320
Jared
Walsh
LAAYes108James
Kaprielian
22.4%+345
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORNo94Ralph
Garza
Jr.
22.3%+345
Byron
Buxton
MINYes98Tyler
Alexander
22.1%+355
Corey
Seager
TEXYes101Kyle
Bradish
21.9%+355
Dan
Vogelbach
NYMYes104Anibal
Sanchez
21.3%+370
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORNo94Ralph
Garza
Jr.
20.9%+380
Adolis
Garcia
TEXNo95Kyle
Bradish
20.6%+385
Jorge
Polanco
MINYes98Tyler
Alexander
20.5%+390
Rowdy
Tellez
MILYes95Tyler
Beede
20.4%+390
Rafael
Devers
BOSYes102Jose
Urquidy
20.4%+390
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCNo106Lance
Lynn
20.1%+400
J.D.
Martinez
BOSNo101Jose
Urquidy
19.9%+400
Rhys
Hoskins
PHINo97Charlie
Morton
19.9%+405
Brandon
Nimmo
NYMYes104Anibal
Sanchez
19.6%+410
Salvador
Perez
KCNo106Lance
Lynn
19.5%+415
Ketel
Marte
ARIYes103Shane
Bieber
19.4%+415
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXYes101Kyle
Bradish
19.1%+420
Eugenio
Suarez
SEANo103Gerrit
Cole
19.1%+425
Aaron
Judge
NYYNo103Luis
Castillo
19.1%+425
Isaac
Paredes
TBYes94Yusei
Kikuchi
18.7%+435
Willy
Adames
MILNo92Tyler
Beede
18.6%+440
Starling
Marte
NYMNo106Anibal
Sanchez
18.3%+445
Carlos
Correa
MINYes98Tyler
Alexander
18.1%+450
Hunter
Renfroe
MILNo92Tyler
Beede
18.0%+455
Josh
Naylor
CLENo103Tommy
Henry
18.0%+455
Anthony
Santander
BALYes95Martin
Perez
17.7%+465
Christian
Walker
ARINo99Shane
Bieber
17.4%+475
George
Springer
TORNo94Ralph
Garza
Jr.
17.2%+480
Javier
Baez
DETNo98Joe
Ryan
17.2%+480
Marcell
Ozuna
ATLNo97Zack
Wheeler
17.1%+485
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes99Tommy
Henry
17.0%+485
Seth
Brown
OAKYes108Shohei
Ohtani
17.0%+490
Marcus
Semien
TEXNo95Kyle
Bradish
16.8%+495
Ramon
Laureano
OAKNo103Shohei
Ohtani
16.7%+500
Taylor
Ward
LAANo103James
Kaprielian
16.7%+500
Trea
Turner
LADNo90Alex
Cobb
16.7%+500
Kyle
Schwarber
PHIYes100Charlie
Morton
16.6%+505
Darick
Hall
PHIYes100Charlie
Morton
16.6%+505
Nolan
Arenado
STLYes91Justin
Steele
16.5%+505
Ji-Man
Choi
TBNo92Yusei
Kikuchi
16.4%+510
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo106Brady
Singer
16.4%+510
Eloy
Jimenez
CHWNo106Brady
Singer
16.4%+510
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYYes109Luis
Castillo
16.4%+510
Luis
Urias
MILNo92Tyler
Beede
16.4%+510
Jose
Miranda
MINYes98Tyler
Alexander
16.3%+515
Max
Stassi
LAANo103James
Kaprielian
16.0%+525
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLYes91Justin
Steele
15.9%+530
Juan
Soto
SDYes95Chad
Kuhl
15.9%+530
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes104Anibal
Sanchez
15.8%+535
Mark
Canha
NYMNo106Anibal
Sanchez
15.7%+535
Ty
France
SEANo103Gerrit
Cole
15.4%+550
C.J.
Cron
COLYes96Blake
Snell
15.3%+550
Josh
Bell
SDYes95Chad
Kuhl
15.3%+555
Austin
Riley
ATLNo97Zack
Wheeler
15.3%+555
Jose
Altuve
HOUNo101Brayan
Bello
15.1%+560
Aledmys
Diaz
HOUNo101Brayan
Bello
15.1%+560
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWNo106Brady
Singer
15.1%+565
Joey
Votto
CINYes92Sandy
Alcantara
14.9%+570
Matt
Olson
ATLYes100Zack
Wheeler
14.6%+585
Wilmer
Flores
SFYes90Julio
Urias
14.5%+590
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALYes95Martin
Perez
14.5%+590
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCNo91Miles
Mikolas
14.5%+590
Mookie
Betts
LADNo90Alex
Cobb
14.4%+595
Charlie
Blackmon
COLNo95Blake
Snell
14.3%+600
Freddie
Freeman
LADYes87Alex
Cobb
14.2%+600
Jurickson
Profar
SDYes95Chad
Kuhl
14.0%+615
Trent
Grisham
SDYes95Chad
Kuhl
14.0%+615
Lars
Nootbaar
STLNo97Justin
Steele
14.0%+615
Tommy
Pham
BOSNo101Jose
Urquidy
13.8%+625
Randy
Arozarena
TBYes94Yusei
Kikuchi
13.7%+625
MJ
Melendez
KCYes111Lance
Lynn
13.7%+630
Lane
Thomas
WSHNo106Chris
Bassitt
13.7%+630
Luis
Robert
CHWNo106Brady
Singer
13.7%+630
Joey
Gallo
LADYes87Alex
Cobb
13.6%+635
Cody
Bellinger
LADYes87Alex
Cobb
13.6%+635
Tyrone
Taylor
MILNo92Tyler
Beede
13.4%+645
Kole
Calhoun
TEXYes101Kyle
Bradish
13.4%+645
Albert
Pujols
STLYes91Justin
Steele
13.4%+650
Oneil
Cruz
PITYes95Freddy
Peralta
13.4%+650
Ronald
Acuna
ATLNo97Zack
Wheeler
13.3%+650
Bryson
Stott
PHIYes100Charlie
Morton
13.3%+655
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes95Martin
Perez
13.2%+660
Matt
Chapman
TORNo94Ralph
Garza
Jr.
13.0%+670
Maikel
Franco
WSHNo106Chris
Bassitt
12.9%+675
Hunter
Dozier
KCNo106Lance
Lynn
12.9%+675
Gio
Urshela
MINYes98Tyler
Alexander
12.8%+680
Andrew
Velazquez
LAAYes108James
Kaprielian
12.6%+690
Seiya
Suzuki
CHCNo91Miles
Mikolas
12.6%+690
Stephen
Piscotty
OAKNo103Shohei
Ohtani
12.6%+690
Manny
Machado
SDNo96Chad
Kuhl
12.6%+695
Ramon
Urias
BALYes95Martin
Perez
12.5%+700
Jeimer
Candelario
DETYes99Joe
Ryan
12.5%+705
Christian
Vazquez
HOUNo101Brayan
Bello
12.4%+705
Danny
Jansen
TORNo94Ralph
Garza
Jr.
12.3%+710
Nelson
Cruz
WSHNo106Chris
Bassitt
12.2%+720
A.J.
Pollock
CHWNo106Brady
Singer
12.2%+720
Vinnie
Pasquantino
KCYes111Lance
Lynn
12.2%+725
Daulton
Varsho
ARIYes103Shane
Bieber
12.1%+725
Kyle
Tucker
HOUYes102Brayan
Bello
12.0%+730
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes95Freddy
Peralta
12.0%+730
Willson
Contreras
CHCNo91Miles
Mikolas
12.0%+735
Gleyber
Torres
NYYNo103Luis
Castillo
11.9%+740
Ezequiel
Duran
TEXNo95Kyle
Bradish
11.8%+750
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSNo101Jose
Urquidy
11.7%+755
Mike
Yastrzemski
SFNo87Julio
Urias
11.7%+755
Gary
Sanchez
MINYes98Tyler
Alexander
11.3%+785
Jesus
Aguilar
MIAYes90Mike
Minor
11.2%+790
Bryan
De
La
Cruz
MIAYes90Mike
Minor
11.2%+790
Josh
Donaldson
NYYNo103Luis
Castillo
11.2%+795
Jesse
Winker
SEAYes109Gerrit
Cole
11.2%+795
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes109Gerrit
Cole
11.2%+795
Andres
Gimenez
CLENo103Tommy
Henry
11.0%+805
Tucker
Barnhart
DETYes99Joe
Ryan
11.0%+810
Christian
Arroyo
BOSNo101Jose
Urquidy
11.0%+810
Christian
Bethancourt
TBYes94Yusei
Kikuchi
10.9%+815
Luis
Guillorme
NYMYes104Anibal
Sanchez
10.7%+835
Josh
Rojas
ARIYes103Shane
Bieber
10.6%+840
Jake
McCarthy
ARIYes103Shane
Bieber
10.6%+840
Kolten
Wong
MILYes95Tyler
Beede
10.6%+840
Dansby
Swanson
ATLNo97Zack
Wheeler
10.6%+845
Joey
Bart
SFYes90Julio
Urias
10.5%+850
Nick
Fortes
MIAYes90Mike
Minor
10.5%+850
Brendan
Rodgers
COLYes96Blake
Snell
10.4%+865
Bo
Bichette
TORNo94Ralph
Garza
Jr.
10.3%+870
Jose
Siri
TBYes94Yusei
Kikuchi
10.2%+885
Jason
Vosler
SFNo87Julio
Urias
10.1%+895
Donovan
Solano
CINNo90Sandy
Alcantara
9.9%+910
Aristides
Aquino
CINNo90Sandy
Alcantara
9.9%+910
Paul
DeJong
STLYes91Justin
Steele
9.9%+910
Tyler
O'Neill
STLYes91Justin
Steele
9.9%+910
Jake
Cronenworth
SDYes95Chad
Kuhl
9.9%+910
Alcides
Escobar
WSHNo106Chris
Bassitt
9.9%+910
Tim
Anderson
CHWNo106Brady
Singer
9.9%+910
J.T.
Realmuto
PHINo97Charlie
Morton
9.9%+915
DJ
LeMahieu
NYYNo103Luis
Castillo
9.6%+940
Sean
Murphy
OAKNo103Shohei
Ohtani
9.6%+940
Alejandro
Kirk
TORNo94Ralph
Garza
Jr.
9.6%+945
Michael
Harris
II
ATLYes100Zack
Wheeler
9.6%+945
Tyler
Nevin
BALYes95Martin
Perez
9.5%+950
Carlos
Santana
SEAYes109Gerrit
Cole
9.5%+955
Riley
Greene
DETYes99Joe
Ryan
9.5%+955
Trey
Mancini
HOUNo101Brayan
Bello
9.5%+955
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes108James
Kaprielian
9.4%+960
Yandy
Diaz
TBYes94Yusei
Kikuchi
9.4%+960
Rafael
Ortega
CHCYes97Miles
Mikolas
9.3%+975
Ian
Happ
CHCYes97Miles
Mikolas
9.3%+975
Carson
Kelly
ARINo99Shane
Bieber
9.3%+975
Jonathan
India
CINNo90Sandy
Alcantara
9.2%+985
Orlando
Arcia
ATLNo97Zack
Wheeler
9.1%+995
Jeff
McNeil
NYMYes104Anibal
Sanchez
9.1%+1000
Luis
Garcia
WSHNo106Chris
Bassitt
9.1%+1000
Austin
Hedges
CLEYes99Tommy
Henry
9.1%+1005
Alek
Thomas
ARIYes103Shane
Bieber
9.0%+1010
Rougned
Odor
BALNo101Martin
Perez
8.9%+1025
Elvis
Andrus
OAKNo103Shohei
Ohtani
8.8%+1030
Jo
Adell
LAANo103James
Kaprielian
8.8%+1030
Randal
Grichuk
COLYes96Blake
Snell
8.8%+1035
Elias
Diaz
COLYes96Blake
Snell
8.8%+1035
Victor
Reyes
DETYes99Joe
Ryan
8.7%+1050
Yulieski
Gurriel
HOUNo101Brayan
Bello
8.7%+1050
Jake
Meyers
HOUNo101Brayan
Bello
8.7%+1050
Jarred
Kelenic
SEAYes109Gerrit
Cole
8.6%+1060
Will
Smith
LADNo90Alex
Cobb
8.5%+1070
Travis
d'Arnaud
ATLNo97Zack
Wheeler
8.4%+1095
Josh
Harrison
CHWNo106Brady
Singer
8.2%+1115
Amed
Rosario
CLEYes99Tommy
Henry
8.2%+1115
Eric
Hosmer
BOSYes102Jose
Urquidy
8.1%+1130
Jarren
Duran
BOSYes102Jose
Urquidy
8.1%+1130
Leody
Taveras
TEXYes101Kyle
Bradish
8.1%+1140
Eddie
Rosario
ATLYes100Zack
Wheeler
8.0%+1150
Austin
Hays
BALYes95Martin
Perez
7.9%+1160
Zach
McKinstry
CHCYes97Miles
Mikolas
7.8%+1185
Tommy
La
Stella
SFNo87Julio
Urias
7.8%+1190
Tony
Kemp
OAKYes108Shohei
Ohtani
7.7%+1200
Skye
Bolt
OAKYes108Shohei
Ohtani
7.7%+1200
Jonathan
Schoop
DETNo98Joe
Ryan
7.7%+1205
Cal
Mitchell
PITYes95Freddy
Peralta
7.6%+1210
Bligh
Madris
PITYes95Freddy
Peralta
7.6%+1210
Nick
Castellanos
PHINo97Charlie
Morton
7.6%+1215
Miguel
Rojas
MIAYes90Mike
Minor
7.5%+1225
Luke
Williams
MIAYes90Mike
Minor
7.5%+1225
Yadiel
Hernandez
WSHYes104Chris
Bassitt
7.4%+1245
Owen
Miller
CLEYes99Tommy
Henry
7.4%+1255
Santiago
Espinal
TORNo94Ralph
Garza
Jr.
7.4%+1255
Nick
Gordon
MINNo99Tyler
Alexander
7.4%+1255
Jose
Trevino
NYYNo103Luis
Castillo
7.2%+1285
Kyle
Lewis
SEANo103Gerrit
Cole
7.2%+1285
Frank
Schwindel
CHCNo91Miles
Mikolas
7.2%+1295
Harold
Castro
DETYes99Joe
Ryan
7.1%+1310
Albert
Almora
Jr.
CINNo90Sandy
Alcantara
7.1%+1310
Rene
Pinto
TBYes94Yusei
Kikuchi
7.0%+1320
Max
Muncy
LADYes87Alex
Cobb
7.0%+1325
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes111Brady
Singer
7.0%+1335
Nicky
Lopez
KCYes111Lance
Lynn
7.0%+1335
Nick
Pratto
KCYes111Lance
Lynn
7.0%+1335
Dylan
Carlson
STLYes91Justin
Steele
6.8%+1360
Charles
Leblanc
MIAYes90Mike
Minor
6.8%+1375
Wil
Myers
SDNo96Chad
Kuhl
6.8%+1380
Oscar
Gonzalez
CLEYes99Tommy
Henry
6.5%+1430
Andrew
McCutchen
MILNo92Tyler
Beede
6.5%+1440
Alex
Verdugo
BOSYes102Jose
Urquidy
6.5%+1450
Christopher
Morel
CHCNo91Miles
Mikolas
6.4%+1455
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes95Martin
Perez
6.3%+1490

Related News

MLB Betting Guide for Friday 8/11/23: The Wrong Team Is Favored at Fenway Park

Austin Swaim  --  Aug 3rd, 2022

3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 8/11/23

Thomas Vecchio  --  Aug 3rd, 2022

MLB Betting Guide for Thursday 8/10/23: 3 Unders on a Slate with Dodgy Weather

Austin Swaim  --  Aug 3rd, 2022