FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Tuesday 8/2/22
We arguably have a pretty tight core of top pitchers on Tuesday's 13-game slate, while offense is pretty wide open. There isn't necessarily a single stack that stands out above the rest, but we have eight different teams sporting implied totals above 4.50.
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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
Corbin Burnes ($11,300): While it's noteworthy that Jacob deGrom is making his 2022 debut tonight, chances are he'll have a limited workload after throwing just 67 pitches in his last rehab start. That leaves Burnes alone at the top, and he's well worth his lofty salary against the Pirates.
The dynamite right-hander is having another Cy Young-worthy campaign, producing a 2.73 SIERA, 32.8% strikeout rate, and 6.4% walk rate across 20 starts. He's been on a bit of a roll lately, too, racking up double-digit punchouts in three of his last four outings, helping him to over 50 FanDuel points in all three.
Against righties, Pittsburgh's active roster owns the second-worst wRC+ (83) and fourth-worst strikeout rate (23.9%), so this is the ideal matchup for Burnes to have another ceiling performance. The Pirates have a 3.19 implied total, which is one of the lowest on the board.
Cristian Javier ($9,700): Javier has been a hit-or-miss play all season due in large part to his 10.3% walk rate as a starter, and it's been four straight misses since he posted back-to-back 70-point outings.
But that's the kind of upside that comes with the 32.6% strikeout rate that he's posted in the rotation, and we should be willing to take the plunge against a team like the Red Sox.
Boston's active roster has a mere 93 wRC+ against righties at this point, and if someone like J.D. Martinez is dealt at the deadline, this will become an even weaker lineup. As is, they're showing a 3.42 implied total.
Javier is certainly a riskier play than someone like Burnes, but getting $1,600 back in our pockets to spend on bats is something well worth considering in GPPs.
Spencer Strider ($8,300): Much like last week, Strider is a standout value again, and despite a solid 43-point outing, we're actually getting him at an even better bargain tonight. As a starting pitcher, Strider's posted a 2.57 xFIP, 36.4% strikeout rate, and 8.8% walk rate, and while we can nitpick the walks, that strikeout rate bests even Burnes on the slate.
Given his youth, there are concerns that his pitch counts could take a dip at some point, but outside of a poor start against Washington, he logged 90 or more pitches in four of five starts in July, including two hitting 100.
The only downside tonight is he's facing the Phillies for the second time in a row. That familiarity could make his job tougher, but this is still a good matchup versus a team with a 93 wRC+ and 22.7% strikeout rate when facing right-handers.
While Bryse Wilson's probably pitched better than his 6.31 ERA, he's consistently struggled at the big league level over his young career and still isn't generating a ton of swings and misses.
Over 55 2/3 innings this season, he has a 4.52 SIERA and 15.6% strikeout rate. And if we dig in a bit further, we find that he's particularly poor versus left-handed batters, with a 5.24 xFIP, 13.8% strikeout rate, 9.2% walk rate, and 37.0% ground-ball rate.
Christian Yelich ($3,400), Rowdy Tellez ($3,300), and Kolten Wong ($2,900) give us a trio of lefties who should all bat in the top half of the order, and they're a good starting point for Milwaukee Brewers stacks. All three have been above average in wRC+, and Tellez has been one of the Brewers' best when it comes to barrels.
Wilson is less of a lost cause in same-sided matchups but still gets just a 17.0% strikeout rate in the split. Willy Adames ($3,700) and Hunter Renfroe ($3,500) are the Brewers' top power righties to consider tonight.
Manning's only logged eight MLB innings this season -- all of which came in April -- but we saw him for 18 starts in 2021, and the results weren't pretty. Across 85 1/3 innings, he put up a 5.27 SIERA, 14.8% strikeout rate, and 8.6% walk rate, and the lack of Ks were backed by an underwhelming 6.8% swinging-strike rate.
It's worth noting that the Detroit right-hander does have a respectable 3.97 xFIP and 26.4% strikeout rate in six Triple-A starts this year, but it's also come with an 11.5% walk rate, so it hasn't been all good.
Ultimately, while it's hard to say what exactly we're going to get from Manning, he looks like a guy to attack until he proves otherwise.
Byron Buxton ($4,100) leads the way as usual, and then we're getting solid values from the hitters around him through Jorge Polanco ($3,300), Carlos Correa ($3,000), and Luis Arraez ($2,900). Arraez's lack of power or speed makes him incredibly boring on his own, but he's one of just five qualified players getting on base over 40% of the time, so he's a worthy inclusion when going for the full stack.
Gary Sanchez ($2,400) has been relegated to the bottom of the order lately and is coming off a particularly forgettable July. But he's tied with Buxton in barrels per plate appearance, and this could be the right matchup to get him going against a low-strikeout pitcher.
New York Mets
The New York Mets are facing Cory Abbott in his second career start, but it's hard to say how long he'll go after making a one-inning relief appearance on Sunday. Although the Nationals indicated that the outing took the place of a scheduled bullpen session, Abbott has been used strictly as a reliever in his three 2022 appearances, so it's hard to see him having a full workload.
That could be particularly problematic for the Nats, who just used five different relief pitchers on Monday night. Whether Abbott is on a limited pitch count or the Mets just get to him early, this should be a great spot all around for a New York stack.
Abbott's Triple-A marks since joining Washington have been subpar at best, too. Over 28 1/3 innings (including six starts), he's produced a 25.6% strikeout rate, but it's been alongside a 4.92 xFIP and 12.8% walk rate.
He also didn't do much for the Cubs' big league club in 2021, logging a 6.44 xFIP, 14.6% strikeout rate, and 13.4% walk rate over 17 1/3 innings.
Pete Alonso ($4,000) naturally stands out with his .269 ISO, and Starling Marte ($3,900) and Francisco Lindor ($3,800) are also top options with both power and speed. For value plays, Brandon Nimmo ($3,000) is a low-salaried leadoff hitter, and Dan Vogelbach ($2,800) is batting fifth against right-handers.