MLB
MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Monday 8/1/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
NYYMarco
Gonzales
9.05.1440.9%25.9%14.8%7.8%3.7%
NYMPatrick
Corbin
8.04.8435.6%21.5%11.7%5.8%2.6%
CHWBrad
Keller
8.54.6933.0%19.4%10.3%5.0%2.2%
CLEZach
Davies
8.54.5931.3%18.1%9.4%4.5%1.9%
HOUNathan
Eovaldi
8.04.5029.7%16.9%8.7%4.0%1.7%
TEXSpenser
Watkins
8.04.4028.0%15.6%7.9%3.6%1.5%
SDAntonio
Senzatela
7.54.3527.2%15.0%7.5%3.4%1.4%
LADLogan
Webb
7.53.9921.3%11.0%5.1%2.1%0.8%
ARICal
Quantrill
8.53.9120.1%10.2%4.6%1.9%0.7%
SEADomingo
German
9.03.8619.3%9.7%4.3%1.7%0.6%
KCMichael
Kopech
8.53.8118.6%9.2%4.1%1.6%0.6%
BALJon
Gray
8.03.6015.6%7.3%3.1%1.2%0.4%
SFAndrew
Heaney
7.53.5114.4%6.6%2.7%1.0%0.3%
BOSLuis
Garcia
8.03.5014.2%6.5%2.7%1.0%0.3%
WSHMax
Scherzer
8.03.1610.1%4.2%1.6%0.5%0.2%
COLMike
Clevinger
7.53.1510.0%4.2%1.5%0.5%0.2%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Max
Scherzer
WSH7.895.1%88.6%78.7%65.8%51.5%37.5%25.5%
Jon
Gray
BAL6.789.8%79.3%65.2%49.7%34.9%22.7%13.6%
Luis
Garcia
BOS6.286.7%74.3%58.9%42.9%28.7%17.6%10.0%
Jesus
Luzardo
CIN6.084.9%71.5%55.4%39.4%25.6%15.3%8.4%
Hunter
Greene
MIA5.983.7%69.7%53.3%37.3%23.8%14.0%7.5%
Logan
Webb
LAD5.883.4%69.3%52.8%36.8%23.4%13.7%7.3%
Mike
Clevinger
COL5.680.8%65.6%48.6%32.8%20.2%11.3%5.9%
Michael
Kopech
KC5.377.6%61.2%43.8%28.4%16.8%9.0%4.5%
Nathan
Eovaldi
HOU5.377.3%60.9%43.5%28.1%16.5%8.9%4.4%
Andrew
Heaney
SF5.276.7%60.1%42.6%27.4%16.0%8.5%4.1%
Tarik
Skubal
MIN4.972.2%54.4%36.8%22.5%12.4%6.2%2.9%
Patrick
Corbin
NYM4.871.0%52.9%35.4%21.3%11.6%5.8%2.6%
Domingo
German
SEA4.768.6%50.0%32.6%19.1%10.1%4.9%2.1%
Cal
Quantrill
ARI4.464.4%45.3%28.3%15.9%8.0%3.7%1.5%
Brad
Keller
CHW4.261.2%41.8%25.3%13.7%6.7%2.9%1.2%
Marco
Gonzales
NYY4.260.8%41.4%25.0%13.5%6.5%2.9%1.1%
Chris
Archer
DET4.056.3%36.7%21.2%10.9%5.0%2.1%0.8%
Antonio
Senzatela
SD3.545.3%26.5%13.6%6.2%2.5%0.9%0.3%
Spenser
Watkins
TEX3.138.0%20.5%9.6%4.0%1.5%0.5%0.1%
Zach
Davies
CLE2.626.6%12.4%5.0%1.7%0.5%0.2%0.0%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Eugenio
Suarez
SEANo103Domingo
German
27.2%+270
Pete
Alonso
NYMYes106Patrick
Corbin
25.8%+290
Aaron
Judge
NYYYes103Marco
Gonzales
25.3%+295
Byron
Buxton
MINYes98Tarik
Skubal
23.1%+335
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALNo95Jon
Gray
22.0%+355
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUYes102Nathan
Eovaldi
22.0%+355
Jorge
Polanco
MINYes98Tarik
Skubal
21.6%+365
Ketel
Marte
ARIYes103Cal
Quantrill
20.6%+385
Josh
Naylor
CLEYes103Zach
Davies
20.6%+385
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes109Domingo
German
20.3%+395
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes103Zach
Davies
20.0%+400
C.J.
Cron
COLNo96Mike
Clevinger
19.7%+405
Salvador
Perez
KCNo106Michael
Kopech
19.5%+415
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYNo109Marco
Gonzales
19.3%+420
Corey
Seager
TEXYes101Spenser
Watkins
19.1%+420
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes106Patrick
Corbin
18.6%+435
Christian
Walker
ARINo99Cal
Quantrill
18.5%+440
Brandon
Drury
CINYes90Jesus
Luzardo
18.1%+450
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes101Spenser
Watkins
18.0%+455
Marcus
Semien
TEXNo95Spenser
Watkins
17.9%+455
Jeremy
Pena
HOUNo101Nathan
Eovaldi
17.6%+465
Luke
Voit
SDNo96Antonio
Senzatela
17.5%+470
Jose
Miranda
MINYes98Tarik
Skubal
17.5%+470
Kyle
Tucker
HOUYes102Nathan
Eovaldi
17.5%+470
Daulton
Varsho
ARIYes103Cal
Quantrill
17.0%+490
Josh
Donaldson
NYYYes103Marco
Gonzales
16.9%+490
Mookie
Betts
LADNo90Logan
Webb
16.7%+500
Jesse
Winker
SEAYes109Domingo
German
16.4%+510
Adolis
Garcia
TEXNo95Spenser
Watkins
16.2%+515
Joey
Votto
CINNo92Jesus
Luzardo
15.9%+525
Christian
Vazquez
BOSNo101Luis
Garcia
15.8%+535
Gleyber
Torres
NYYYes103Marco
Gonzales
15.5%+545
Trent
Grisham
SDYes95Antonio
Senzatela
15.3%+555
Juan
Soto
WSHYes104Max
Scherzer
15.1%+560
Trea
Turner
LADNo90Logan
Webb
15.0%+570
Dan
Vogelbach
NYMNo104Patrick
Corbin
14.8%+575
Anthony
Santander
BALYes101Jon
Gray
14.8%+575
Tommy
Pham
CINYes90Jesus
Luzardo
14.5%+590
Manny
Machado
SDNo96Antonio
Senzatela
14.5%+590
J.D.
Martinez
BOSNo101Luis
Garcia
14.5%+590
Starling
Marte
NYMYes106Patrick
Corbin
14.4%+590
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWNo106Brad
Keller
14.4%+595
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes103Zach
Davies
14.3%+600
Kole
Calhoun
TEXYes101Spenser
Watkins
14.1%+610
Rougned
Odor
BALYes101Jon
Gray
14.1%+610
Wilmer
Flores
SFYes90Andrew
Heaney
13.9%+620
Bryan
De
La
Cruz
MIANo90Hunter
Greene
13.8%+625
Eloy
Jimenez
CHWNo106Brad
Keller
13.7%+630
Freddie
Freeman
LADYes87Logan
Webb
13.6%+635
Gary
Sanchez
MINYes98Tarik
Skubal
13.5%+640
Javier
Baez
DETNo98Chris
Archer
13.5%+645
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXYes101Spenser
Watkins
13.4%+645
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes101Jon
Gray
13.4%+645
Charlie
Blackmon
COLYes95Mike
Clevinger
13.4%+650
Jonathan
India
CINYes90Jesus
Luzardo
13.3%+655
Brendan
Rodgers
COLNo96Mike
Clevinger
13.2%+655
Jeimer
Candelario
DETYes99Chris
Archer
13.2%+660
Nolan
Jones
CLEYes103Zach
Davies
12.9%+675
Carlos
Santana
SEAYes109Domingo
German
12.7%+685
Kyle
Lewis
SEANo103Domingo
German
12.6%+690
Jesus
Aguilar
MIANo90Hunter
Greene
12.5%+700
Jose
Altuve
HOUNo101Nathan
Eovaldi
12.4%+705
Chas
McCormick
HOUNo101Nathan
Eovaldi
12.4%+705
Cody
Bellinger
LADYes87Logan
Webb
12.4%+705
Jason
Vosler
SFNo87Andrew
Heaney
12.2%+720
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo106Brad
Keller
12.2%+720
Jake
McCarthy
ARIYes103Cal
Quantrill
12.1%+725
Alek
Thomas
ARIYes103Cal
Quantrill
12.1%+725
Jake
Cronenworth
SDYes95Antonio
Senzatela
12.0%+730
Randal
Grichuk
COLNo96Mike
Clevinger
11.9%+740
Ramon
Urias
BALNo95Jon
Gray
11.8%+750
Tucker
Barnhart
DETYes99Chris
Archer
11.7%+750
Harold
Castro
DETYes99Chris
Archer
11.7%+750
Martin
Maldonado
HOUNo101Nathan
Eovaldi
11.7%+755
Alex
Bregman
HOUNo101Nathan
Eovaldi
11.7%+755
Mike
Yastrzemski
SFNo87Andrew
Heaney
11.7%+755
Gavin
Sheets
CHWYes111Brad
Keller
11.3%+780
MJ
Melendez
KCYes111Michael
Kopech
11.3%+780
Mark
Canha
NYMYes106Patrick
Corbin
11.3%+785
Kris
Bryant
COLNo96Mike
Clevinger
11.2%+795
Brandon
Nimmo
NYMNo104Patrick
Corbin
11.1%+800
Austin
Hays
BALNo95Jon
Gray
11.1%+800
Justin
Turner
LADNo90Logan
Webb
10.6%+845
Carlos
Correa
MINYes98Tarik
Skubal
10.6%+845
Jarren
Duran
BOSYes102Luis
Garcia
10.5%+850
Joey
Bart
SFYes90Andrew
Heaney
10.5%+850
Elias
Diaz
COLNo96Mike
Clevinger
10.5%+855
Ezequiel
Duran
TEXNo95Spenser
Watkins
10.4%+860
Riley
Greene
DETYes99Chris
Archer
10.3%+875
Bobby
Dalbec
BOSNo101Luis
Garcia
10.2%+880
Kyle
Higashioka
NYYYes103Marco
Gonzales
10.2%+880
Jake
Fraley
CINNo92Jesus
Luzardo
10.0%+900
Josh
Bell
WSHYes104Max
Scherzer
9.9%+910
Eric
Hosmer
SDYes95Antonio
Senzatela
9.9%+910
Jurickson
Profar
SDYes95Antonio
Senzatela
9.9%+910
Hunter
Dozier
KCNo106Michael
Kopech
9.9%+910
Jake
Lamb
LADYes87Logan
Webb
9.8%+920
Abraham
Toro
SEAYes109Domingo
German
9.5%+955
Tommy
La
Stella
SFNo87Andrew
Heaney
9.5%+955
DJ
LeMahieu
NYYYes103Marco
Gonzales
9.4%+965
Josh
Harrison
CHWNo106Brad
Keller
9.1%+1000
Tim
Anderson
CHWNo106Brad
Keller
9.1%+1000
Luis
Garcia
WSHNo106Max
Scherzer
9.1%+1000
Mike
Papierski
CINYes90Jesus
Luzardo
9.1%+1005
Alex
Verdugo
BOSYes102Luis
Garcia
8.9%+1020
Lewin
Diaz
MIAYes92Hunter
Greene
8.9%+1025
Leody
Taveras
TEXYes101Spenser
Watkins
8.9%+1025
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes111Brad
Keller
8.8%+1040
Mike
Moustakas
CINNo92Jesus
Luzardo
8.8%+1040
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSNo101Luis
Garcia
8.7%+1050
Aaron
Hicks
NYYYes103Marco
Gonzales
8.5%+1070
Franmil
Reyes
CLENo99Zach
Davies
8.5%+1070
Buddy
Kennedy
ARINo99Cal
Quantrill
8.5%+1070
Ryan
McMahon
COLYes95Mike
Clevinger
8.4%+1090
Connor
Joe
COLNo96Mike
Clevinger
8.3%+1105
Gilberto
Celestino
MINYes98Tarik
Skubal
8.2%+1125
Joey
Wendle
MIAYes92Hunter
Greene
8.1%+1125
Franchy
Cordero
BOSYes102Luis
Garcia
8.1%+1130
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes101Jon
Gray
8.1%+1140
Christian
Arroyo
BOSNo101Luis
Garcia
7.9%+1165
Yasmani
Grandal
CHWYes111Brad
Keller
7.9%+1165
J.P.
Crawford
SEAYes109Domingo
German
7.8%+1190
Austin
Hedges
CLENo99Zach
Davies
7.7%+1190
Carson
Kelly
ARINo99Cal
Quantrill
7.7%+1190
Myles
Straw
CLENo99Zach
Davies
7.7%+1190
Jonathan
Schoop
DETNo98Chris
Archer
7.7%+1205
Trey
Mancini
BALNo95Jon
Gray
7.5%+1240
Jorge
Mateo
BALNo95Jon
Gray
7.5%+1240
Yadiel
Hernandez
WSHYes104Max
Scherzer
7.4%+1245
A.J.
Pollock
CHWNo106Brad
Keller
7.4%+1250
Josh
Rojas
ARIYes103Cal
Quantrill
7.4%+1255
Robbie
Grossman
DETYes99Chris
Archer
7.1%+1310
Victor
Reyes
DETYes99Chris
Archer
7.1%+1310
Avisail
Garcia
MIANo90Hunter
Greene
7.1%+1310
Will
Smith
LADNo90Logan
Webb
7.1%+1310
Yulieski
Gurriel
HOUNo101Nathan
Eovaldi
7.1%+1310
Nick
Pratto
KCYes111Michael
Kopech
7.0%+1335
Kyle
Farmer
CINYes90Jesus
Luzardo
6.8%+1375
Nelson
Cruz
WSHNo106Max
Scherzer
6.5%+1430

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