MLB

MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Friday 7/29/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
LADChad
Kuhl
12.07.0270.2%55.3%40.4%27.4%17.2%
NYYKris
Bubic
8.55.4446.1%30.5%18.3%10.1%5.1%
TORBryan
Garcia
8.55.4446.1%30.5%18.3%10.1%5.1%
ATLMadison
Bumgarner
9.05.2542.8%27.5%16.1%8.6%4.2%
STLAnibal
Sanchez
9.05.0439.1%24.4%13.8%7.1%3.3%
COLJulio
Urias
12.04.9838.1%23.5%13.1%6.7%3.1%
MILBrayan
Bello
9.04.9737.9%23.3%13.0%6.6%3.1%
CHWJames
Kaprielian
8.54.8135.1%21.1%11.4%5.6%2.5%
HOURobbie
Ray
7.54.1523.9%12.7%6.1%2.6%1.0%
PHIJose
Quintana
8.04.1523.9%12.7%6.1%2.6%1.0%
BOSBrandon
Woodruff
9.04.0322.0%11.4%5.3%2.2%0.9%
SFMarcus
Stroman
7.54.0021.5%11.1%5.1%2.1%0.8%
WSHMiles
Mikolas
9.03.9620.9%10.7%4.9%2.0%0.8%
PITBailey
Falter
8.03.8519.2%9.6%4.3%1.7%0.6%
SDJoe
Ryan
7.53.8218.7%9.3%4.1%1.6%0.6%
ARIKyle
Wright
9.03.7517.7%8.6%3.8%1.5%0.5%
LAAMartin
Perez
7.53.7517.7%8.6%3.8%1.5%0.5%
TEXPatrick
Sandoval
7.53.7517.7%8.6%3.8%1.5%0.5%
OAKLance
Lynn
8.53.6916.8%8.1%3.5%1.3%0.5%
MINBlake
Snell
7.53.6816.7%8.0%3.4%1.3%0.5%
TBShane
Bieber
7.03.5715.2%7.1%3.0%1.1%0.4%
CHCAlex
Cobb
7.53.5014.2%6.5%2.7%1.0%0.3%
CLEJeffrey
Springs
7.03.4313.3%6.0%2.4%0.9%0.3%
SEAJustin
Verlander
7.53.3512.3%5.4%2.1%0.8%0.2%
NYMSandy
Alcantara
6.53.3412.2%5.4%2.1%0.7%0.2%
MIAChris
Bassitt
6.53.1610.1%4.2%1.6%0.5%0.2%
DETAlek
Manoah
8.53.069.0%3.7%1.3%0.4%0.1%
KCGerrit
Cole
8.53.069.0%3.7%1.3%0.4%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Gerrit
Cole
KC7.393.4%85.5%73.9%59.8%45.0%31.5%20.4%
Sandy
Alcantara
NYM7.393.2%85.2%73.5%59.3%44.4%30.9%20.0%
Alek
Manoah
DET6.790.4%80.2%66.5%51.1%36.3%23.8%14.4%
Justin
Verlander
SEA6.790.3%80.1%66.3%50.9%36.1%23.6%14.3%
Brandon
Woodruff
BOS6.689.7%79.1%65.0%49.4%34.6%22.4%13.4%
Shane
Bieber
TB6.689.5%78.7%64.5%48.9%34.2%22.0%13.1%
Chris
Bassitt
MIA6.589.0%78.0%63.5%47.8%33.2%21.2%12.5%
Blake
Snell
MIN6.387.4%75.3%60.1%44.2%29.8%18.5%10.6%
Kyle
Wright
ARI6.286.8%74.5%59.1%43.1%28.8%17.7%10.1%
Robbie
Ray
HOU6.084.9%71.5%55.4%39.4%25.6%15.3%8.4%
Patrick
Sandoval
TEX5.782.1%67.4%50.7%34.7%21.7%12.4%6.5%
Alex
Cobb
CHC5.478.7%62.7%45.4%29.8%17.8%9.7%4.9%
Lance
Lynn
OAK5.378.0%61.7%44.3%28.9%17.1%9.3%4.6%
Julio
Urias
COL5.377.2%60.7%43.3%28.0%16.4%8.8%4.3%
Martin
Perez
LAA5.275.7%58.7%41.2%26.2%15.1%7.9%3.8%
Jeffrey
Springs
CLE5.073.5%56.0%38.4%23.8%13.3%6.8%3.2%
Joe
Ryan
SD4.870.1%51.8%34.4%20.5%11.0%5.4%2.4%
Madison
Bumgarner
ATL4.769.7%51.3%33.9%20.1%10.8%5.2%2.3%
Jose
Quintana
PHI4.566.1%47.2%30.0%17.2%8.8%4.1%1.8%
Miles
Mikolas
WSH4.463.5%44.3%27.5%15.3%7.6%3.5%1.4%
Mike
Minor
BAL4.463.4%44.1%27.3%15.1%7.6%3.4%1.4%
Anibal
Sanchez
STL4.260.3%40.8%24.5%13.1%6.3%2.8%1.1%
Bailey
Falter
PIT4.260.3%40.8%24.5%13.1%6.3%2.8%1.1%
Dean
Kremer
CIN4.159.3%39.8%23.7%12.6%6.0%2.6%1.0%
Marcus
Stroman
SF4.158.6%39.1%23.1%12.1%5.7%2.4%1.0%
Kris
Bubic
NYY4.056.8%37.3%21.6%11.2%5.2%2.2%0.8%
Chad
Kuhl
LAD4.055.9%36.3%20.9%10.7%4.9%2.0%0.8%
James
Kaprielian
CHW3.953.9%34.4%19.3%9.7%4.3%1.7%0.6%
Brayan
Bello
MIL3.751.2%31.9%17.4%8.4%3.7%1.4%0.5%
Bryan
Garcia
TOR2.524.5%11.0%4.3%1.4%0.4%0.1%0.0%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLNo106Anibal
Sanchez
30.4%+230
Austin
Riley
ATLYes97Madison
Bumgarner
25.7%+290
Byron
Buxton
MINYes96Blake
Snell
24.6%+305
Anthony
Santander
BALYes111Mike
Minor
24.6%+305
Mookie
Betts
LADNo108Chad
Kuhl
24.1%+315
Trea
Turner
LADNo108Chad
Kuhl
24.1%+315
Nolan
Arenado
STLNo106Anibal
Sanchez
23.8%+320
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALYes111Mike
Minor
23.5%+325
Eugenio
Suarez
SEANo101Justin
Verlander
23.5%+325
Brandon
Drury
CINNo111Dean
Kremer
23.0%+335
Aaron
Judge
NYYYes103Kris
Bubic
22.9%+335
Willy
Adames
MILNo99Brayan
Bello
22.7%+340
Hunter
Renfroe
MILNo99Brayan
Bello
22.2%+350
Jose
Altuve
HOUYes101Robbie
Ray
22.0%+355
Travis
d'Arnaud
ATLYes97Madison
Bumgarner
21.9%+355
George
Springer
TORNo101Bryan
Garcia
21.5%+365
Nolan
Gorman
STLYes104Anibal
Sanchez
21.3%+370
Danny
Jansen
TORNo101Bryan
Garcia
21.0%+375
William
Contreras
ATLYes97Madison
Bumgarner
19.8%+405
Kyle
Garlick
MINYes96Blake
Snell
19.6%+410
Gleyber
Torres
NYYYes103Kris
Bubic
19.5%+415
Matt
Chapman
TORNo101Bryan
Garcia
19.4%+415
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORNo101Bryan
Garcia
19.4%+415
Bo
Bichette
TORNo101Bryan
Garcia
19.4%+415
Franmil
Reyes
CLEYes94Jeffrey
Springs
19.3%+420
Trey
Mancini
BALYes111Mike
Minor
19.3%+420
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYNo109Kris
Bubic
19.3%+420
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo106James
Kaprielian
18.9%+430
C.J.
Cron
COLYes108Julio
Urias
18.9%+430
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes94Jeffrey
Springs
18.7%+435
Brandon
Belt
SFYes87Marcus
Stroman
18.6%+435
Cody
Bellinger
LADYes109Chad
Kuhl
18.4%+445
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUNo102Robbie
Ray
18.3%+445
Joey
Votto
CINYes113Dean
Kremer
18.3%+450
Matt
Carpenter
NYYNo109Kris
Bubic
18.2%+450
Austin
Hays
BALYes111Mike
Minor
17.9%+460
Ketel
Marte
ARIYes100Kyle
Wright
17.8%+460
Kyle
Schwarber
PHINo95Jose
Quintana
17.8%+460
Eloy
Jimenez
CHWNo106James
Kaprielian
17.7%+465
Sean
Murphy
OAKNo106Lance
Lynn
17.7%+465
Kris
Bryant
COLYes108Julio
Urias
17.6%+470
Will
Smith
LADNo108Chad
Kuhl
17.3%+480
Kyle
Tucker
HOUNo102Robbie
Ray
17.3%+480
Joc
Pederson
SFYes87Marcus
Stroman
17.1%+485
Shohei
Ohtani
LAANo108Martin
Perez
17.0%+490
Isaac
Paredes
TBNo94Shane
Bieber
16.7%+500
Jose
Miranda
MINYes96Blake
Snell
16.6%+500
Matt
Olson
ATLNo100Madison
Bumgarner
16.5%+505
Christian
Walker
ARINo97Kyle
Wright
16.5%+505
Lars
Nootbaar
STLYes104Anibal
Sanchez
16.5%+505
Rougned
Odor
BALNo113Mike
Minor
16.4%+510
Corey
Seager
TEXNo108Patrick
Sandoval
16.4%+510
Julio
Rodriguez
SEANo101Justin
Verlander
16.4%+510
Max
Muncy
LADYes109Chad
Kuhl
16.4%+510
Rowdy
Tellez
MILYes93Brayan
Bello
16.3%+515
Taylor
Ward
LAAYes103Martin
Perez
16.2%+515
Mike
Moustakas
CINYes113Dean
Kremer
16.2%+520
Dansby
Swanson
ATLYes97Madison
Bumgarner
16.1%+520
Brandon
Lowe
TBYes92Shane
Bieber
16.1%+520
Pete
Alonso
NYMNo90Sandy
Alcantara
16.1%+520
Michael
Chavis
PITYes92Bailey
Falter
16.1%+520
Diego
Castillo
PITYes92Bailey
Falter
16.1%+520
Alex
Bregman
HOUYes101Robbie
Ray
16.0%+525
Juan
Soto
WSHYes104Miles
Mikolas
15.8%+535
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORNo101Bryan
Garcia
15.8%+535
Ramon
Urias
BALYes111Mike
Minor
15.8%+535
Luis
Urias
MILNo99Brayan
Bello
15.5%+545
Marcell
Ozuna
ATLYes97Madison
Bumgarner
15.5%+545
Rhys
Hoskins
PHIYes92Jose
Quintana
15.4%+545
Brendan
Rodgers
COLYes108Julio
Urias
15.4%+550
Alek
Thomas
ARIYes100Kyle
Wright
15.3%+555
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes111Mike
Minor
15.0%+565
Freddie
Freeman
LADYes109Chad
Kuhl
15.0%+565
Ji-Man
Choi
TBYes92Shane
Bieber
14.9%+570
Tyrone
Taylor
MILNo99Brayan
Bello
14.9%+570
Bobby
Dalbec
BOSNo99Brandon
Woodruff
14.9%+570
Jesse
Winker
SEAYes102Justin
Verlander
14.9%+570
Adolis
Garcia
TEXYes103Patrick
Sandoval
14.8%+575
Charlie
Blackmon
COLNo109Julio
Urias
14.8%+575
Gio
Urshela
MINYes96Blake
Snell
14.7%+580
Jared
Walsh
LAANo108Martin
Perez
14.7%+580
Justin
Turner
LADNo108Chad
Kuhl
14.6%+585
Chas
McCormick
HOUYes101Robbie
Ray
14.6%+585
Alejandro
Kirk
TORNo101Bryan
Garcia
14.5%+590
Tyler
O'Neill
STLNo106Anibal
Sanchez
14.4%+595
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWNo106James
Kaprielian
14.4%+595
Jesus
Sanchez
MIAYes92Chris
Bassitt
14.3%+600
Jake
Lamb
LADYes109Chad
Kuhl
14.3%+600
Ronald
Acuna
ATLYes97Madison
Bumgarner
14.1%+610
Jose
Trevino
NYYYes103Kris
Bubic
14.1%+610
Jorge
Polanco
MINYes96Blake
Snell
14.0%+615
Jeremy
Pena
HOUYes101Robbie
Ray
13.9%+620
Javier
Baez
DETNo101Alek
Manoah
13.8%+625
Willson
Contreras
CHCNo90Alex
Cobb
13.8%+625
A.J.
Pollock
CHWNo106James
Kaprielian
13.7%+630
Ramon
Laureano
OAKNo106Lance
Lynn
13.7%+630
J.D.
Martinez
BOSNo99Brandon
Woodruff
13.6%+635
MJ
Melendez
KCYes109Gerrit
Cole
13.5%+640
Tommy
Pham
CINNo111Dean
Kremer
13.5%+645
Orlando
Arcia
ATLYes97Madison
Bumgarner
13.4%+645
Jake
Cronenworth
SDYes95Joe
Ryan
13.4%+650
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes103Patrick
Sandoval
13.4%+650
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCNo103Gerrit
Cole
13.3%+650
Gary
Sanchez
MINYes96Blake
Snell
13.3%+650
Wilmer
Flores
SFNo90Marcus
Stroman
13.1%+660
Jesus
Aguilar
MIANo90Chris
Bassitt
13.1%+660
Martin
Maldonado
HOUYes101Robbie
Ray
13.1%+660
Ty
France
SEANo101Justin
Verlander
13.1%+660
Randal
Grichuk
COLYes108Julio
Urias
13.1%+660
Mike
Yastrzemski
SFYes87Marcus
Stroman
13.0%+665
Dylan
Carlson
STLYes104Anibal
Sanchez
13.0%+670
Andrew
McCutchen
MILNo99Brayan
Bello
12.9%+675
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes102Justin
Verlander
12.8%+685
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes111Mike
Minor
12.6%+695
Manny
Machado
SDNo96Joe
Ryan
12.6%+695
Seiya
Suzuki
CHCNo90Alex
Cobb
12.5%+700
LaMonte
Wade
Jr
SFYes87Marcus
Stroman
12.4%+705
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes92Sandy
Alcantara
12.4%+710
Randy
Arozarena
TBNo94Shane
Bieber
12.3%+710
Stephen
Piscotty
OAKNo106Lance
Lynn
12.2%+720
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes111James
Kaprielian
12.2%+725
J.T.
Realmuto
PHIYes92Jose
Quintana
12.1%+725
Carlos
Santana
SEAYes102Justin
Verlander
12.0%+730
Oneil
Cruz
PITNo95Bailey
Falter
12.0%+730
Jurickson
Profar
SDYes95Joe
Ryan
12.0%+730
Carlos
Correa
MINYes96Blake
Snell
11.9%+745
David
Peralta
ARIYes100Kyle
Wright
11.8%+745
Nolan
Jones
CLENo92Jeffrey
Springs
11.7%+755
Dan
Vogelbach
NYMYes92Sandy
Alcantara
11.7%+755
Ehire
Adrianza
WSHYes104Miles
Mikolas
11.5%+770
Josh
Bell
WSHYes104Miles
Mikolas
11.5%+770
Yadiel
Hernandez
WSHYes104Miles
Mikolas
11.5%+770
Chad
Pinder
OAKNo106Lance
Lynn
11.4%+775
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCNo90Alex
Cobb
11.2%+790
Jeimer
Candelario
DETYes94Alek
Manoah
11.2%+790
Eduardo
Escobar
NYMYes92Sandy
Alcantara
11.0%+810
Myles
Straw
CLEYes94Jeffrey
Springs
10.9%+815
Jorge
Mateo
BALYes111Mike
Minor
10.9%+815
Connor
Joe
COLYes108Julio
Urias
10.7%+840
Carson
Kelly
ARINo97Kyle
Wright
10.6%+845
Frank
Schwindel
CHCNo90Alex
Cobb
10.6%+845
Nico
Hoerner
CHCNo90Alex
Cobb
10.6%+845
Andres
Gimenez
CLENo92Jeffrey
Springs
10.6%+845
Christian
Yelich
MILYes93Brayan
Bello
10.4%+860
Daulton
Varsho
ARIYes100Kyle
Wright
10.3%+865
DJ
LeMahieu
NYYYes103Kris
Bubic
10.2%+880
Marcus
Semien
TEXYes103Patrick
Sandoval
10.2%+880
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes103Martin
Perez
10.2%+880
Jo
Adell
LAAYes103Martin
Perez
10.2%+880
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXNo108Patrick
Sandoval
10.1%+885
Michael
Harris
II
ATLNo100Madison
Bumgarner
10.1%+890
Yairo
Munoz
PHIYes92Jose
Quintana
10.0%+900
Starling
Marte
NYMNo90Sandy
Alcantara
9.9%+910
Elias
Diaz
COLYes108Julio
Urias
9.8%+920
Luke
Voit
SDNo96Joe
Ryan
9.8%+925
Kolten
Wong
MILYes93Brayan
Bello
9.7%+930
Miguel
Sano
MINYes96Blake
Snell
9.6%+940
Kyle
Lewis
SEANo101Justin
Verlander
9.5%+955
Jonathan
India
CINNo111Dean
Kremer
9.5%+960
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSNo99Brandon
Woodruff
9.3%+975
Jason
Delay
PITYes92Bailey
Falter
9.2%+985
Keibert
Ruiz
WSHYes104Miles
Mikolas
9.1%+1000
Harold
Castro
DETYes94Alek
Manoah
9.1%+1005
Omar
Narvaez
MILYes93Brayan
Bello
9.0%+1015
Luke
Raley
TBYes92Shane
Bieber
8.9%+1025
Hunter
Dozier
KCNo103Gerrit
Cole
8.8%+1030
Tony
Kemp
OAKYes111Lance
Lynn
8.8%+1040
Austin
Hedges
CLEYes94Jeffrey
Springs
8.6%+1055
Leody
Taveras
TEXYes103Patrick
Sandoval
8.5%+1070
Avisail
Garcia
MIANo90Chris
Bassitt
8.5%+1070
Christian
Vazquez
BOSNo99Brandon
Woodruff
8.5%+1070
Christopher
Morel
CHCNo90Alex
Cobb
8.5%+1070
Kevin
Newman
PITYes92Bailey
Falter
8.5%+1080
Matt
Vierling
PHIYes92Jose
Quintana
8.5%+1080
Trent
Grisham
SDYes95Joe
Ryan
8.4%+1090
Josh
Harrison
CHWNo106James
Kaprielian
8.2%+1115
Nelson
Cruz
WSHNo106Miles
Mikolas
8.2%+1115
Michael
Taylor
KCNo103Gerrit
Cole
8.0%+1145
Brandon
Marsh
LAANo108Martin
Perez
8.0%+1150
Santiago
Espinal
TORNo101Bryan
Garcia
7.9%+1165
Yasmani
Grandal
CHWYes111James
Kaprielian
7.9%+1165
Miguel
Rojas
MIANo90Chris
Bassitt
7.8%+1180
Mark
Canha
NYMNo90Sandy
Alcantara
7.8%+1180
Tomas
Nido
NYMNo90Sandy
Alcantara
7.8%+1180
Joey
Bart
SFNo90Marcus
Stroman
7.8%+1180
Bryson
Stott
PHINo95Jose
Quintana
7.8%+1190
Max
Stassi
LAAYes103Martin
Perez
7.7%+1205
Eric
Hosmer
SDYes95Joe
Ryan
7.6%+1210
Tucker
Barnhart
DETYes94Alek
Manoah
7.5%+1225
Yulieski
Gurriel
HOUYes101Robbie
Ray
7.5%+1230
Jake
Meyers
HOUYes101Robbie
Ray
7.5%+1230
Tommy
Edman
STLYes104Anibal
Sanchez
7.4%+1245
Tim
Anderson
CHWNo106James
Kaprielian
7.4%+1250
Brandon
Nimmo
NYMYes92Sandy
Alcantara
7.4%+1250
Christian
Bethancourt
TBNo94Shane
Bieber
7.4%+1255
Lourdes
Gurriel
TORNo101Bryan
Garcia
7.1%+1310
Jose
Iglesias
COLYes108Julio
Urias
7.1%+1310
Skye
Bolt
OAKYes111Lance
Lynn
7.0%+1335
Nicky
Lopez
KCYes109Gerrit
Cole
6.9%+1355
Nomar
Mazara
SDYes95Joe
Ryan
6.8%+1365
Aaron
Hicks
NYYYes103Kris
Bubic
6.8%+1375
Isiah
Kiner-Falefa
NYYYes103Kris
Bubic
6.8%+1375
JJ
Bleday
MIAYes92Chris
Bassitt
6.6%+1405
Corey
Dickerson
STLYes104Anibal
Sanchez
6.6%+1420
Andrew
Knizner
STLNo106Anibal
Sanchez
6.5%+1430
Whit
Merrifield
KCNo103Gerrit
Cole
6.4%+1470
Thairo
Estrada
SFNo90Marcus
Stroman
6.4%+1470
Josh
Rojas
ARIYes100Kyle
Wright
6.3%+1480
Tommy
La Stella
SFYes87Marcus
Stroman
6.3%+1485