3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 7/29/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Sandy Alcantara Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-136)
Our model sees a ton of value on this prop.
The Mets, though, have been in a swing-and-miss rut of late. Over the last 14 days, they carry a 23.2% strikeout rate, including a 23.6% clip over the past seven days, the eighth-highest in that span.
With a 3.37 SIERA, 24.3% strikeout rate and 12.2% swinging-strike rate, Alcantara has been brilliant in 2022. He's punched out at least 10 in three of his last four starts, and another reason to feel good about taking the over here is how consistently Alcantara works deep into games. He's completed at least six innings in 14 straight outings, going at least seven frames in 13 of those. That gives him ample opportunities to rack up strikeouts.
We project Alcantara for 7.3 punchies -- well over this 5.5 line. (You have to go to the all-day slate to see Alcantara's projection since this game starts at 6:40 p.m. EST.)
Paul Goldschmidt to Hit a Home Run (+265)
Sanchez has made just two starts this season, and he's surrendered three dingers over 10 innings. He didn't pitch in the bigs in 2021, but back in 2020, he gave up 1.87 homers per nine over 53 innings -- including a .423 wOBA and 2.70 jacks per nine to righties, albeit in a small sample of 115 total batters faced.
The St. Louis Cardinals are showing a juicy 5.04 implied total, and this is a money spot for Goldy.
In righty-righty matchups this campaign, Goldschmidt owns a .404 wOBA and 43.1% fly-ball rate, popping 18 jacks in 324 plate appearances.
Our model has Goldschmidt projected for 0.50 homers tonight -- 0.12 more than any other hitter. It's a great spot for him to go ding dong.
Brendan Rodgers to Hit a Home Run (+470)
Brendan Rodgers is up against Julio Urias. It's far from an easy matchup, but Rodgers has been lethal with the platoon advantage, boasting a .404 wOBA in the split this season. At home against lefties, he's got a 40.4% hard-hit rate and .490 wOBA. Yes, please.
Urias has had trouble with Coors throughout his last four starts in the thin air. In 7 1/3 innings (two starts) at Coors this season, Urias has conceded six earned runs. In his last two outings at Coors in 2021, he allowed four earned runs in each.
Urias also isn't nearly as dominant against righties, striking out just 21.7% in the split compared to a 33.3% strikeout rate in lefty-lefty matchups.
Rodgers has hit safely in nine straight home games, including 12 hits in the last six Coors games. He can keep rolling in this one, and I like the +470 number on him to go yard.