3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays to Target on Friday 7/29/22
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
As a result of this, the primary method of selecting hitters is to "stack" certain teams in good spots to produce. Most of the top stacks on a given day come with hefty salaries. In addition to that, a vast majority of pitchers with the upside to win tournaments are high-salaried hurlers.
Therefore, crushing your value plays -- whether it be a pitcher unexpectedly piling up strikeouts or a low-salaried batter racking up points -- can be the secret sauce to taking down a tournament.
Which budget options stand out today on FanDuel?
Lance Lynn, P, White Sox ($7,500)
I don't usually drop this far down at pitcher, but I'm tempted to do it tonight.
In a vacuum, I like the idea of getting Lance Lynn at this salary against a blah Oakland Athletics offense, but the context of this slate makes it more appealing, too, as the salary savings can help us get to the high-salary bats on the Los Angeles Dodgers (7.02 implied total), Toronto Blue Jays (5.47), New York Yankees (5.44) and Atlanta Braves (5.27).
Lynn's 6.43 ERA is a straight-up lie. He's been a lot better than that, sporting a 3.76 SIERA and 11.7% swinging-strike rate -- which are very close to his 3.72 SIERA and 12.0% swinging-strike rate from 2021.
A boost to Lynn's DFS outlook in recent years has been his workload, and that's no different this campaign. He's cleared 100 pitches in half of his past six outings, and he has recorded a 27.3% strikeout rate over his last two starts.
Oakland is about as good of a matchup as there is. The A's are next to last in wOBA (.269) versus right-handers with the seventh-highest strikeout rate (24.0%) in the split. Their 3.64 implied total is a number we can feel good about.
Lynn obviously doesn't offer the upside that Gerrit Cole and Alek Manoah do, and both of those guys are in great matchups. Heck, you can argue Lynn isn't even the best value pitcher -- Patrick Sandoval ($8,800) and Alex Cobb ($8,300) are fine options, too.
But all in all, Lynn is someone in my player pool tonight. The salary is so low, and using him gives you a chance to stack the top offenses in ways those who use Cole or Manoah won't be able to. Color me intrigued.
We project Lynn for 29.3 FanDuel points and rate him as the best point-per-dollar arm.
Kyle Garlick, OF, Twins ($2,100)
If you are rostering Cole or Manoah and trying to stack the night's best offenses, finding a solid one-off value bat could be huge on this slate.
One of the most volatile hurlers in the game, Snell could plow through the Minnesota Twins today or get rocked. Minnesota's 3.68 implied total scares me off of full stacks, but Garlick stands out as a quality one-off pick with his near-minimum tag.
Against righties this season, Snell is permitting a .324 wOBA, and Garlick has killed it in this split, mashing his way to a .431 wOBA and 39.5% hard-hit rate across 59 plate appearances.
Our algorithm projects Garlick for 10.3 FanDuel points and slots him in as the sixth-best point-per-dollar hitter.
Josh Donaldson, 3B, Yankees ($2,600)
The Yankees carry a 5.44 implied total for their matchup against lefty Kris Bubic.
A lefty, Bubic should be in a lot of trouble in this one. He's pitched to a 5.04 SIERA, 17.7% strikeout rate and 11.9% walk rate this season.
While Josh Donaldson has struggled in 2022, he has a long track record of excellent numbers with the platoon advantage. He racked up a .394 wOBA and 43.0% hard-hit rate last year versus lefties. He put up a .364 wOBA and 51.9% hard-hit rate in the split in 2019.
Donaldson is a low-salary way to get exposure to the Yanks, and he's a handy piece on this slate if you're stacking the Bronx Bombers alongside a top-notch pitcher.