MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Thursday 7/28/22
Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?
To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.
Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.
(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)
Team Run Total Projections
| Team | Opp SP | O/U | Implied Total |
5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | Jose Urena | 12.0 | 6.96 | 69.4% | 54.4% | 39.5% | 26.6% | 16.5% |
| TOR | Tyler Alexander | 9.5 | 5.56 | 48.1% | 32.3% | 19.8% | 11.1% | 5.7% |
| COL | Tyler Anderson | 12.0 | 5.04 | 39.1% | 24.4% | 13.8% | 7.1% | 3.3% |
| CIN | Daniel Castano | 9.5 | 5.01 | 38.6% | 23.9% | 13.4% | 6.9% | 3.2% |
| NYY | Brady Singer | 8.5 | 5.01 | 38.6% | 23.9% | 13.4% | 6.9% | 3.2% |
| CLE | Kutter Crawford | 9.0 | 4.59 | 31.3% | 18.1% | 9.4% | 4.5% | 1.9% |
| BAL | Ryan Yarbrough | 9.0 | 4.57 | 30.9% | 17.8% | 9.2% | 4.4% | 1.9% |
| PHI | Zach Thompson | 8.0 | 4.55 | 30.6% | 17.5% | 9.1% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| MIA | Graham Ashcraft | 9.5 | 4.49 | 29.5% | 16.8% | 8.6% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| TB | Jordan Lyles | 9.0 | 4.43 | 28.5% | 16.0% | 8.1% | 3.7% | 1.6% |
| BOS | Triston McKenzie | 9.0 | 4.41 | 28.2% | 15.8% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| LAA | Spencer Howard | 7.5 | 4.37 | 27.5% | 15.3% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| HOU | Logan Gilbert | 8.0 | 4.27 | 25.8% | 14.1% | 6.9% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| SF | Justin Steele | 7.5 | 4.02 | 21.8% | 11.3% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| DET | Yusei Kikuchi | 9.5 | 3.94 | 20.6% | 10.5% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| SEA | Jose Urquidy | 8.0 | 3.73 | 17.4% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| KC | Jameson Taillon | 8.5 | 3.49 | 14.1% | 6.5% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| CHC | Alex Wood | 7.5 | 3.48 | 14.0% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| PIT | Zack Wheeler | 8.0 | 3.45 | 13.6% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| TEX | Shohei Ohtani | 7.5 | 3.13 | 9.8% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
| Pitcher | Opp | K Proj |
3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | TEX | 8.0 | 95.8% | 90.0% | 80.9% | 68.7% | 54.7% | 40.7% | 28.3% |
| Zack Wheeler | PIT | 6.3 | 87.4% | 75.3% | 60.1% | 44.2% | 29.8% | 18.5% | 10.6% |
| Triston McKenzie | BOS | 5.8 | 82.7% | 68.3% | 51.7% | 35.7% | 22.5% | 13.0% | 6.9% |
| Alex Wood | CHC | 5.3 | 77.5% | 61.0% | 43.7% | 28.3% | 16.7% | 8.9% | 4.4% |
| Brady Singer | NYY | 5.1 | 74.6% | 57.3% | 39.8% | 25.0% | 14.2% | 7.3% | 3.5% |
| Jose Urquidy | SEA | 5.0 | 73.8% | 56.3% | 38.8% | 24.1% | 13.5% | 6.9% | 3.3% |
| Jameson Taillon | KC | 5.0 | 73.5% | 56.0% | 38.4% | 23.8% | 13.3% | 6.8% | 3.2% |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 4.9 | 72.4% | 54.5% | 37.0% | 22.6% | 12.5% | 6.3% | 2.9% |
| Yusei Kikuchi | DET | 4.9 | 71.5% | 53.5% | 35.9% | 21.8% | 11.9% | 5.9% | 2.7% |
| Logan Gilbert | HOU | 4.8 | 70.9% | 52.7% | 35.2% | 21.2% | 11.5% | 5.7% | 2.6% |
| Kutter Crawford | CLE | 4.8 | 70.4% | 52.2% | 34.7% | 20.8% | 11.2% | 5.5% | 2.5% |
| Jordan Lyles | TB | 4.7 | 69.2% | 50.7% | 33.3% | 19.7% | 10.5% | 5.1% | 2.2% |
| Graham Ashcraft | MIA | 4.5 | 65.6% | 46.6% | 29.5% | 16.8% | 8.6% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| Justin Steele | SF | 4.4 | 64.4% | 45.3% | 28.3% | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.7% | 1.5% |
| Ryan Yarbrough | BAL | 3.8 | 52.4% | 33.0% | 18.3% | 9.0% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Jose Urena | LAD | 3.4 | 43.1% | 24.7% | 12.3% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Zach Thompson | PHI | 3.3 | 42.8% | 24.5% | 12.2% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Daniel Castano | CIN | 3.2 | 40.2% | 22.3% | 10.8% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Spencer Howard | LAA | 3.1 | 37.7% | 20.4% | 9.5% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Alexander | TOR | 2.6 | 26.8% | 12.5% | 5.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Daily Batter Home Run Projections
You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.
Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.
| Batter | Team | Split Adv? |
HR PF |
Opp SP |
HR Prob% |
xHR Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eugenio Suarez | SEA | No | 101 | Jose Urquidy | 28.0% | +255 |
| Mookie Betts | LAD | No | 108 | Jose Urena | 26.8% | +275 |
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | Yes | 95 | Zach Thompson | 25.9% | +285 |
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | Yes | 102 | Logan Gilbert | 24.0% | +315 |
| Trea Turner | LAD | No | 108 | Jose Urena | 23.6% | +325 |
| Matt Chapman | TOR | Yes | 101 | Tyler Alexander | 23.6% | +325 |
| Julio Rodriguez | SEA | No | 101 | Jose Urquidy | 23.5% | +325 |
| Shohei Ohtani | LAA | Yes | 108 | Spencer Howard | 23.4% | +325 |
| Anthony Santander | BAL | Yes | 112 | Ryan Yarbrough | 23.1% | +335 |
| Anthony Rizzo | NYY | Yes | 109 | Brady Singer | 23.1% | +335 |
| Aaron Judge | NYY | No | 103 | Brady Singer | 22.8% | +340 |
| Jared Walsh | LAA | Yes | 108 | Spencer Howard | 22.4% | +345 |
| Adolis Garcia | TEX | No | 103 | Shohei Ohtani | 22.3% | +350 |
| Josh Naylor | CLE | Yes | 93 | Kutter Crawford | 22.1% | +355 |
| Taylor Ward | LAA | No | 103 | Spencer Howard | 21.3% | +370 |
| Jonathan India | CIN | Yes | 111 | Daniel Castano | 21.2% | +370 |
| Matt Carpenter | NYY | Yes | 109 | Brady Singer | 20.9% | +380 |
| Ramon Urias | BAL | Yes | 112 | Ryan Yarbrough | 20.1% | +400 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | BAL | Yes | 112 | Ryan Yarbrough | 20.1% | +400 |
| Danny Jansen | TOR | Yes | 101 | Tyler Alexander | 19.8% | +405 |
| Freddie Freeman | LAD | Yes | 109 | Jose Urena | 19.7% | +410 |
| C.J. Cron | COL | Yes | 108 | Tyler Anderson | 19.5% | +410 |
| Jeremy Pena | HOU | No | 101 | Logan Gilbert | 19.4% | +415 |
| Cal Raleigh | SEA | Yes | 102 | Jose Urquidy | 19.3% | +420 |
| Brandon Drury | CIN | Yes | 111 | Daniel Castano | 19.3% | +420 |
| Kyle Tucker | HOU | Yes | 102 | Logan Gilbert | 18.7% | +435 |
| Javier Baez | DET | Yes | 101 | Yusei Kikuchi | 18.6% | +440 |
| Brandon Lowe | TB | Yes | 110 | Jordan Lyles | 18.5% | +440 |
| Jose Ramirez | CLE | Yes | 93 | Kutter Crawford | 18.5% | +440 |
| Jake Lamb | LAD | Yes | 109 | Jose Urena | 18.4% | +445 |
| Cody Bellinger | LAD | Yes | 109 | Jose Urena | 18.4% | +445 |
| J.D. Martinez | BOS | No | 99 | Triston McKenzie | 18.0% | +455 |
| Jose Altuve | HOU | No | 101 | Logan Gilbert | 17.6% | +465 |
| Rhys Hoskins | PHI | No | 92 | Zach Thompson | 17.5% | +470 |
| George Springer | TOR | Yes | 101 | Tyler Alexander | 17.3% | +480 |
| Tommy Pham | CIN | Yes | 111 | Daniel Castano | 17.2% | +480 |
| Darick Hall | PHI | Yes | 95 | Zach Thompson | 17.1% | +485 |
| Franmil Reyes | CLE | No | 99 | Kutter Crawford | 16.8% | +495 |
| Gleyber Torres | NYY | No | 103 | Brady Singer | 16.7% | +500 |
| Teoscar Hernandez | TOR | Yes | 101 | Tyler Alexander | 16.7% | +500 |
| Randy Arozarena | TB | No | 112 | Jordan Lyles | 16.5% | +505 |
| Wilmer Flores | SF | Yes | 90 | Justin Steele | 16.4% | +510 |
| Jesse Winker | SEA | Yes | 102 | Jose Urquidy | 16.2% | +515 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | Yes | 101 | Tyler Alexander | 16.0% | +525 |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | Yes | 95 | Zack Wheeler | 15.9% | +530 |
| Austin Hays | BAL | Yes | 112 | Ryan Yarbrough | 15.9% | +530 |
| Cedric Mullins | BAL | Yes | 112 | Ryan Yarbrough | 15.9% | +530 |
| Patrick Wisdom | CHC | Yes | 90 | Alex Wood | 15.8% | +535 |
| Max Muncy | LAD | Yes | 109 | Jose Urena | 15.7% | +535 |
| Kris Bryant | COL | Yes | 108 | Tyler Anderson | 15.4% | +550 |
| Brendan Rodgers | COL | Yes | 108 | Tyler Anderson | 15.4% | +550 |
| Nelson Velazquez | CHC | Yes | 90 | Alex Wood | 15.2% | +560 |
| Trey Mancini | BAL | Yes | 112 | Ryan Yarbrough | 15.1% | +560 |
| MJ Melendez | KC | Yes | 109 | Jameson Taillon | 15.0% | +565 |
| Corey Seager | TEX | Yes | 108 | Shohei Ohtani | 14.9% | +570 |
| Nathaniel Lowe | TEX | Yes | 108 | Shohei Ohtani | 14.9% | +570 |
| Jo Adell | LAA | No | 103 | Spencer Howard | 14.7% | +580 |
| Darin Ruf | SF | Yes | 90 | Justin Steele | 14.5% | +590 |
| Nolan Jones | CLE | Yes | 93 | Kutter Crawford | 14.4% | +595 |
| Max Stassi | LAA | No | 103 | Spencer Howard | 14.0% | +610 |
| Michael Stefanic | LAA | No | 103 | Spencer Howard | 14.0% | +610 |
| Jesus Sanchez | MIA | Yes | 113 | Graham Ashcraft | 13.9% | +620 |
| Ty France | SEA | No | 101 | Jose Urquidy | 13.8% | +625 |
| Brandon Belt | SF | No | 87 | Justin Steele | 13.8% | +625 |
| Brett Phillips | TB | Yes | 110 | Jordan Lyles | 13.6% | +635 |
| J.T. Realmuto | PHI | No | 92 | Zach Thompson | 13.4% | +645 |
| Josh Donaldson | NYY | No | 103 | Brady Singer | 13.3% | +650 |
| Joey Votto | CIN | No | 113 | Daniel Castano | 13.3% | +650 |
| Austin Slater | SF | Yes | 90 | Justin Steele | 13.3% | +655 |
| Frank Schwindel | CHC | Yes | 90 | Alex Wood | 13.3% | +655 |
| Jonathan Schoop | DET | Yes | 101 | Yusei Kikuchi | 13.1% | +660 |
| Andres Gimenez | CLE | Yes | 93 | Kutter Crawford | 13.1% | +660 |
| Alex Bregman | HOU | No | 101 | Logan Gilbert | 13.1% | +660 |
| Kyle Lewis | SEA | No | 101 | Jose Urquidy | 13.1% | +660 |
| Randal Grichuk | COL | Yes | 108 | Tyler Anderson | 13.1% | +660 |
| Rougned Odor | BAL | No | 110 | Ryan Yarbrough | 13.0% | +670 |
| Ji-Man Choi | TB | Yes | 110 | Jordan Lyles | 12.8% | +680 |
| Adley Rutschman | BAL | Yes | 112 | Ryan Yarbrough | 12.7% | +685 |
| DJ LeMahieu | NYY | No | 103 | Brady Singer | 12.6% | +690 |
| Joey Bart | SF | Yes | 90 | Justin Steele | 12.6% | +695 |
| Jeimer Candelario | DET | Yes | 101 | Yusei Kikuchi | 12.4% | +705 |
| Bo Bichette | TOR | Yes | 101 | Tyler Alexander | 12.4% | +705 |
| Santiago Espinal | TOR | Yes | 101 | Tyler Alexander | 12.4% | +705 |
| Bobby Dalbec | BOS | No | 99 | Triston McKenzie | 12.2% | +720 |
| Carlos Santana | SEA | Yes | 102 | Jose Urquidy | 12.0% | +730 |
| Jesus Aguilar | MIA | No | 111 | Graham Ashcraft | 11.9% | +740 |
| Seiya Suzuki | CHC | Yes | 90 | Alex Wood | 11.9% | +740 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | KC | No | 103 | Jameson Taillon | 11.9% | +740 |
| Jorge Mateo | BAL | Yes | 112 | Ryan Yarbrough | 11.9% | +745 |
| Will Smith | LAD | No | 108 | Jose Urena | 11.6% | +760 |
| Charlie Blackmon | COL | No | 109 | Tyler Anderson | 11.6% | +765 |
| Elias Diaz | COL | Yes | 108 | Tyler Anderson | 11.5% | +770 |
| Christian Bethancourt | TB | No | 112 | Jordan Lyles | 11.2% | +795 |
| Yandy Diaz | TB | No | 112 | Jordan Lyles | 11.2% | +795 |
| Jonah Heim | TEX | Yes | 108 | Shohei Ohtani | 11.1% | +805 |
| Martin Maldonado | HOU | No | 101 | Logan Gilbert | 11.0% | +810 |
| Kyle Farmer | CIN | Yes | 111 | Daniel Castano | 10.9% | +815 |
| JJ Bleday | MIA | Yes | 113 | Graham Ashcraft | 10.7% | +835 |
| Bryson Stott | PHI | Yes | 95 | Zach Thompson | 10.6% | +840 |
| Luke Raley | TB | Yes | 110 | Jordan Lyles | 10.4% | +860 |
| Michael Taylor | KC | No | 103 | Jameson Taillon | 10.4% | +860 |
| Brandon Marsh | LAA | Yes | 108 | Spencer Howard | 10.3% | +875 |
| Chas McCormick | HOU | No | 101 | Logan Gilbert | 10.2% | +880 |
| Nick Castellanos | PHI | No | 92 | Zach Thompson | 10.1% | +890 |
| Justin Turner | LAD | No | 108 | Jose Urena | 10.0% | +895 |
| Xander Bogaerts | BOS | No | 99 | Triston McKenzie | 10.0% | +895 |
| Christian Vazquez | BOS | No | 99 | Triston McKenzie | 10.0% | +895 |
| Donovan Solano | CIN | Yes | 111 | Daniel Castano | 10.0% | +895 |
| Marcus Semien | TEX | No | 103 | Shohei Ohtani | 9.6% | +940 |
| Jose Trevino | NYY | No | 103 | Brady Singer | 9.6% | +940 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | KC | Yes | 109 | Jameson Taillon | 9.5% | +955 |
| Lourdes Gurriel | TOR | Yes | 101 | Tyler Alexander | 9.2% | +985 |
| Oneil Cruz | PIT | Yes | 95 | Zack Wheeler | 9.1% | +995 |
| Franchy Cordero | BOS | Yes | 93 | Triston McKenzie | 9.0% | +1015 |
| Connor Joe | COL | Yes | 108 | Tyler Anderson | 8.9% | +1025 |
| Hunter Dozier | KC | No | 103 | Jameson Taillon | 8.8% | +1030 |
| Ezequiel Duran | TEX | No | 103 | Shohei Ohtani | 8.8% | +1030 |
| Josh Lowe | TB | Yes | 110 | Jordan Lyles | 8.7% | +1050 |
| Gavin Lux | LAD | Yes | 109 | Jose Urena | 8.6% | +1060 |
| Alejandro Kirk | TOR | Yes | 101 | Tyler Alexander | 8.4% | +1095 |
| Thairo Estrada | SF | Yes | 90 | Justin Steele | 8.3% | +1105 |
| Nico Hoerner | CHC | Yes | 90 | Alex Wood | 8.3% | +1105 |
| Yermin Mercedes | SF | Yes | 90 | Justin Steele | 8.3% | +1105 |
| Christopher Morel | CHC | Yes | 90 | Alex Wood | 8.3% | +1105 |
| Mike Papierski | CIN | Yes | 111 | Daniel Castano | 8.2% | +1120 |
| Taylor Walls | TB | Yes | 110 | Jordan Lyles | 7.8% | +1180 |
| Myles Straw | CLE | No | 99 | Kutter Crawford | 7.7% | +1190 |
| Jacob Stallings | MIA | No | 111 | Graham Ashcraft | 7.7% | +1195 |
| Kole Calhoun | TEX | Yes | 108 | Shohei Ohtani | 7.7% | +1200 |
| Luis Rengifo | LAA | Yes | 108 | Spencer Howard | 7.7% | +1200 |
| Tucker Barnhart | DET | Yes | 101 | Yusei Kikuchi | 7.5% | +1230 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | PIT | No | 92 | Zack Wheeler | 7.2% | +1280 |
| Matt Vierling | PHI | No | 92 | Zach Thompson | 7.2% | +1280 |
| Jose Iglesias | COL | Yes | 108 | Tyler Anderson | 7.1% | +1310 |
| Harold Castro | DET | No | 94 | Yusei Kikuchi | 7.0% | +1320 |
| Aaron Hicks | NYY | Yes | 109 | Brady Singer | 6.9% | +1355 |
| Miguel Rojas | MIA | No | 111 | Graham Ashcraft | 6.8% | +1365 |
| David Bote | CHC | Yes | 90 | Alex Wood | 6.8% | +1375 |
| David Villar | SF | Yes | 90 | Justin Steele | 6.8% | +1375 |
| Jackie Bradley | BOS | Yes | 93 | Triston McKenzie | 6.7% | +1390 |
| Kevin Newman | PIT | No | 92 | Zack Wheeler | 6.5% | +1440 |
| J.P. Crawford | SEA | Yes | 102 | Jose Urquidy | 6.5% | +1450 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | NYY | No | 103 | Brady Singer | 6.4% | +1470 |
| Yulieski Gurriel | HOU | No | 101 | Logan Gilbert | 6.3% | +1500 |
