MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 7/28/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Over 9.0 (-120): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
We hit on the over yesterday when these two tangled, and our model likes the over once more.
The Cleveland Guardians are giving the ball to Triston McKenzie. McKenzie has a gopher-ball problem and has had it his whole career. He's permitted 1.49 homers per nine in his career, and while he used to dance around that some by missing bats, he's not doing that as much in 2022. His 23.9% strikeout rate is a career-worst mark.
Facing the Boston Red Sox at Fenway should be a chore for McKenzie, and we have Boston scoring 5.17 runs.
We think the Guardians will do even more damage. They're up against Kutter Crawford. Similar to McKenzie in previous years, Crawford can miss bats (27.0% strikeout rate) but allows a ton of fly-balls (48.2% fly-ball rate). He's getting a Cleveland offense that is on fire, one that has racked up the second-best wOBA (.362) over the last 14 days.
Our algorithm projects the Guardians to plate 5.45 runs.
That's 10.62 total runs. The over has a 57.4% chance to win out, according to our numbers. It's a three-star bet (three-unit recommendation).
Giants Moneyline (-146): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Alex Wood is up for San Fran, and he's registered good peripherals this season -- including a 24.3% strikeout rate and 5.8% walk rate -- en route to a 3.35 SIERA. The batted-ball numbers are dope, too. Wood is surrendering just a 23.5% hard-hit rate and 27.7% fly-ball rate.
The only knock on Wood is that he often gets an early hook, failing to complete five innings in either of his past two outings despite not pitching that badly. That means more of a San Fran 'pen that is sixth-worst in reliever xFIP (4.30).
Justin Steele is pitching for the Cubbies. A lefty, Steele will have his work cut out for him against a Giants lineup that will likely feature a slew of righty bats. The platoon-heavy Giants are 10th in wOBA (.327) versus lefties. Steele is punching out just 18.7% of right-handed hitters.
We project the Giants to win by a score of 4.88-3.87 and give them win odds of 63.1%. The Giants' win implied odds at their -146 moneyline price are 59.3%. There's a sliver of value in taking San Francisco to win, something we rate as a one-star bet.