3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 7/28/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. To Hit a Home Run (+320)
Teoscar Hernandez To Hit a Home Run (+340)
When it comes to the Blues Jays, they have a ton of power, especially when facing a left-handed pitcher. Realistically, they have six of seven hitters who are viable options for a home run, which can make it tough to narrow it down. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Teoscar Hernandez are at the top of my list for this matchup.
They are going up against Tyler Alexander, who comes in allowing a .425 SLG, a 5.13 xFIP, 1.31 HR/9, a 46.4% fly-ball rate, and a 27.1% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. His hard-contact rate is rather low and should be due for some regression as his career hard-contact rate versus right-handed bats is 39.7%. It's noticeably better this season, and he shouldn't be able to maintain that rate.
We turn to Vladdy, who owns a 140 wRC+, a .200 ISO, a .371 wOBA, a 33.3% hard-contact rate, and a 23.5% HR/FB ratio versus left-handed pitchers. Hernandez is sporting a 149 wRC+, a .302 ISO, a .385 wOBA, a 41.0% fly-ball rate, and a 46.2% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers.
It should be a slugfest for the Jays tonight, so I'm also adding Guerrero To Record an RBI (+110) and Hernandez To Record an RBI (+120).
Triston McKenzie Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+102)
With a strikeout prop sitting at 5.5, I'm going with the over and the plus money. McKenzie comes in with a 23.9% strikeout rate and 11.5% swinging-strike rate this season, which are solid numbers for the young pitcher. He's been in the MLB since 2020, and his career strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate are a bit higher than what he is showing right now.
He's flashed that potential in some of his recent starts, posting a 25.9%, 29.2%, and 41.4% strikeout rate in three of his last five outings. That led him to rack up 7, 7, and 12 strikeouts in three of these last five starts.
McKenzie is taking on the Red Sox, who come in with a 21.5% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is 20th in the league. However, things have gotten much worse in recent weeks for Boston. Over the last 30 days, the Sox have a 25.7% strikeout rate in the split, which is the third-worst in the league. Over the last 14 days, it's at a 29.6% strikeout rate, the worst in the league. Over the last seven days, it's at a 28.6% strikeout rate, the second-worst in the league.
The Red Sox are struggling right now, making them a good team to target. With all of this considered, it's reasonable to add McKenzie 7+ Strikeouts (+200) and McKenzie 8+ Strikeouts (+390).
Aaron Judge To Record an RBI (+100)
The New York Yankees are sporting a healthy 5.01 implied run total tonight and offer plenty of player props to consider.
After two losses to their crosstown rivals, the best offense in the league will look to rebound at home versus Brady Singer. This is where we'll turn to Aaron Judge To Record an RBI at even money. He comes in with a 195 wRC+, a .444 wOBA, a .367 ISO, a 42.6% fly-ball, and a 46.2% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.
Singer doesn't give up too many home runs but still allows a .368 SLG, a .302 BABIP, and has a modest 23.0% strikeout rate this season. I'm not worried about the matchup for Judge, especially once the Royals' lackluster bullpen comes into play. You can also add Judge 2+ RBI (+330).