FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Wednesday 7/27/22
Some unusual Wednesday scheduling has most of today's games rolling in this afternoon, leaving us with a tidy five-game main slate. We still have some notable starting pitchers to consider, but finding suitable stacks could be a little trickier tonight.
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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
Over his dozen starts, the birthday boy has accumulated a 2.56 SIERA, 33.8% strikeout rate, and 4.5% walk rate. It sure looks like he's trying to make up for lost time since returning from the injured list, too, sporting a ridiculous 40.2% strikeout rate and 2.1% walk rate over in four July starts.
Even at the age of 38, it's safe to say that Scherzer shows no signs of slowing down.
The Yankees will be a tough test, of course, but the good news is they're without Giancarlo Stanton (Achillies), making the heart of this order much less dangerous. Pitcher-friendly Citi Field should also provide Scherzer an assist, and all of this is reflected in a modest 3.30 implied total for the Bronx Bombers.
Kevin Gausman ($10,400): Gausman and Luis Castillo are the other arms above $10,000, and they're both worthy alternatives to Scherzer. But I'll give the nod to Gausman against a Cardinals team that will be without Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt again tonight.
While Gausman's been a bit up and down this summer, he still owns an excellent 3.00 SIERA, 27.8% strikeout rate, and 4.3% walk rate this season. He also appears to be fully recovered from an ankle injury earlier this month after logging 108 pitches and 10 punchouts in his last start against Boston.
On Tuesday, Jose Berrios tallied seven strikeouts and came one out short of a quality start against this bare-bones St. Louis lineup, so it's only natural to expect an even better result for Gausman. The Cardinals have the worst implied total (3.16) on the night.
Braxton Garrett ($8,200): Garrett has impressed over nine starts this season, posting a 3.50 SIERA, 24.0% strikeout rate, and 5.6% walk rate. He didn't show this kind of strikeout upside in Triple-A earlier this year, but a 12.5% swinging-strike rate backs up what he's been doing since getting called up.
The southpaw's pitch counts have been all over the place, but he does have a season-high of 102, and he's been efficient on the mound lately, with three of his last four starts going at least six innings.
This isn't the easiest matchup against the Reds at a notoriously hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, and that's reflected by a 4.57 implied total for the hometown squad. But Cincinnati isn't a bad opponent for strikeouts (23.0% versus lefties), and this is a bargain-bin salary compared to the top options on the slate.
Toronto Blue Jays
As of this writing, there isn't a single team with an implied total hitting five runs, so it could be a wide-open slate for stacking. But the Toronto Blue Jays have the highest total (4.84) by a decent margin in their spot versus Adam Wainwright.
Wainwright is having a pretty typical Wainwright campaign, so this is by no means a cupcake matchup. However, the right-hander has always been a low-strikeout pitcher, and he has just a 20.2% strikeout rate and 42.5% ground-ball rate in same-sided matchups, which should open the door for Toronto's righty-heavy lineup to cash in on some extra-base hits and dingers.
The top half of the Blue Jays' lineup continues to be loaded with George Springer ($3,800), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($3,900), Alejandro Kirk ($3,400), Bo Bichette ($3,400), and Teoscar Hernandez ($3,700).
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox failed to capitalize on a plus matchup on Tuesday, so it might not feel great to go back to the well tonight. But on the short slate, they stand out against a mediocre Cal Quantrill.
Quantrill has made a habit of out-performing his peripherals the last couple of seasons, but it's still hard to see his 3.75 ERA staying intact when it's backed by a poor 4.78 SIERA and 15.1% strikeout rate. He also isn't allowing a ton of home runs despite a 41.5% ground-ball rate.
Rest of season projections on FanGraphs all agree that Quantrill's ERA should be much closer to his SIERA, making him one of the slate's weaker hurlers. He also has poor underlying numbers against both sides of the plate, giving us added flexibility for stacking.
The Red Sox are low-salaried across the board again, so J.D. Martinez ($3,300) and Xander Bogaerts ($2,900) are easy to build around. Jarren Duran ($2,500) and Alex Verdugo ($2,400) will have the platoon advantage and are projected to bat high in the order, boosting their stock as value plays.
Flipping over to the other side of that game, we can also attack Nathan Eovaldi, who has shown a significant drop in velocity lately. While we typically saw Eovaldi averaging around 97 mph earlier this season, he's been below 95 in both of his starts since returning from a month-long stint on the injured list.
This has led to poor results in back-to-back outings, including an absolute beatdown at the hands of the Blue Jays where he coughed up nine earned runs in just 2 2/3 innings.
Maybe Eovaldi finds those extra ticks on his fastball tonight, but particularly on a slate with no must-have stacks, this isn't a bad spot to take a shot on his struggles continuing.
Jose Ramirez ($4,100) has power and speed upside and continues to be Cleveland's best overall bat (157 wRC+). Josh Naylor ($3,200) and Franmil Reyes ($2,300) are the best home run threats, and Reyes actually leads the team in barrels despite an underwhelming .145 ISO.
In addition to that trio, Steven Kwan ($3,100) and Amed Rosario ($3,300) are stolen base threats atop the order, while Andres Gimenez ($3,200) is easily enjoying the best campaign of his young career.