3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 7/27/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Pete Alonso To Hit a Home Run (+290)/Francisco Lindor To Hit a Home Run (+440)
The New York Mets have a soft matchup to keep their offense rolling tonight.
The Subway Series adds another chapter tonight, and the Mets are looking to pick up another win over their cross-town rivals. The New York Yankees will have Domingo German on the mound tonight, who is making his second start of the season. His first start didn't go well and was only 3.0 innings. We have to look back to last season to get a good idea of his stats.
In 2021, German allowed a .469 SLG, 4.47 xFIP, 1.73 HR/9, 38.6% fly-ball rate, and 34.8% hard-contact rate to right-handed hitters. Against lefties, he allowed a .376 SLG, 4.04 xFIP, 1.36 HR/9, 50.0% fly-ball rate, and 40.0% hard-contact rate. He's bad against both types of hitters, putting the Mets' power bats in a good spot.
Pete Alonso leads the way with a 154 wRC+, .383 wOBA, .264 ISO, 43.5% fly-ball rate, and 36.9% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. Francisco Lindor is next with a 120 wRC+, .332 wOBA, .189 ISO, 37.6% fly-ball, and 31.1% fly-ball rate versus righties.
Of course, I'm always looking to also add Alonso To Record an RBI (+115) and Lindor To Record an RBI (+145).
Braxton Garrett Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-128)
Braxton Garrett is good.
Okay. That might be a bit of a stretch, but he's good right now, and that is always important. This all has to be put into context because Garrett has only 47.1 innings pitched this season, which is his second full year in the Majors. So far, he's rocking a 24.0% strikeout rate, 5.6% walk rate, and 3.47 xFIP.
He has nine starts under his belt this season and has been over the 4.5 mark in six of them, including posting 7 and 11 strikeouts in his two most recent outings. In those two starts, he boosted his strikeout rate up to 33.3% and 45.8%, showing a nice ceiling.
Garrett will be taking on the Cincinnati Reds, who come in with a 23.4% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, which is the ninth-worst in the league.
This should present a nice opportunity to ladder Garrett's strikeouts in a favorable matchup, so also consider Garrett 6+ Strikeouts (+154) and Garrett 7+ Strikeouts (+310).
Josh Naylor To Record an RBI (+125)
The Cleveland Guardians have a 4.07 implied run total, and that isn't high enough.
It isn't high enough because the Guardians are taking on the Boston Red Sox tonight. The Sox have one of the worst pitching staffs in the league, and with Fenway Park being one of the best hitter's parks, the offensive upside is always there.
Nathan Eovaldi will be on the mound, and he comes in allowing a .448 SLG, 2.17 HR/9, 47.8% fly-ball rate, and 40.0% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters this season. He's been hit hard all season, and once the game gets to the Sox bullpen, it will continue to be a great matchup.
We turn to Josh Naylor, who comes in with a 150 wRC+, .258 ISO, .381 wOBA, 38.2% fly-ball rate, and 19.0% HR/FB rate versus right-handed pitchers. Naylor usually hits cleanup for the Guardians, so it's reasonable to add Naylor 2+ RBI (+450).
