MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 7/26/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Over 9.0 (-104): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Toronto's bats should do the heavy lifting versus Pallante. The Cards' rookie righty is off to a bleh start, recording a meager 15.5% strikeout rate over his first 70 MLB innings. He does an excellent job keeping the ball on the ground, posting a 63.7% ground-ball rate, and that's helped him limit homers to only 0.90 per nine. He'll have his work cut out for him, though, against a Blue Jays offense that's on fire.
As for Berrios, he's had a funky year, struggling mightily in some outings while looking like an ace at other times. Overall, he's got a 3.93 SIERA and 21.1% strikeout rate. The strikeout rate is his lowest since his rookie campaign in 2016. He's also allowing a 40.4% fly-ball rate, a career-worst clip, and 1.77 dingers per nine. He does, however, get to face a Cardinals offense that will be sans Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt.
In all, we project Toronto to win by a score of 5.17-4.60. That's 9.77 total runs, and we rate the over as a two-star bet (two-unit recommendation).
Over 8.5 (-115): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
Zerpa is making just his second start in the bigs this season, and there isn't much in his profile that points to him being an impactful starter. Over a small sample of 12 career MLB innings, he's got a 12.8% strikeout rate and 4.57 SIERA. He fanned just 24.8% of hitters this year over 64 frames in Double-A.
Once Zerpa leaves the game, he'll hand it over to a Kansas City Royals 'pen that sits second-worst in xFIP (4.49).
While the Los Angeles Angels offense is not good, we have them plating 5.39 runs today.
Suarez has a better and larger MLB track record than Zerpa does, but he's still a pretty mundane hurler. He owns a 4.76 SIERA in 226 2/3 career innings, and he has posted a 4.44 SIERA this season. Homers have been a huge issue for him in 2022 as he's surrendered 1.80 jacks per nine.
Kansas City is pretty solid against lefties, ranking 14th in wOBA (.319) in the split, and we project them to score 5.23 runs in this one.
That's 10.62 total runs -- more than two runs over the listed total. We think the over wins out 67.6% of the time and give this bet a four-star rating.