MLB Betting Guide: Monday 7/25/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds
Marlins Moneyline (+114): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Marlins +1.5 (-182): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Kicking off the day of games is a matchup between the host Cincinnati Reds (36-58) and the visiting Miami Marlins (45-50).
Our model is liking the Marlins to win at a 53.7% rate and is seeing value both on their moneyline and runline.
Miami will be putting Trevor Rogers (4-9) on the hill. Rogers has a 5.46 ERA but a not-as-bad 4.96 expected ERA on the season. Starting for the Reds is fellow lefty Nick Lodolo (2-3 with a 5.81 ERA and 4.39 expected ERA).
Miami has the edge in bullpen strength (91 active-roster xFIP- compared to a 109 for the Reds).
In total, not a ton is separating the two teams in our model, and that's why it's siding with the underdogs here. Miami is rating out as 70.5% likely to cover the runline.
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies Moneyline (+158): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Phillies +1.5 (-108): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Two more lefties are on the bump for this matchup. That starts with Ranger Suarez (7-5, 4.07 ERA, 4.13 expected ERA) for the Philadelphia Phillies (49-46).
Max Fried (10-3, 2.64 ERA, 2.96 expected ERA) gets the nod for the Atlanta Braves.
Both offenses are above average against left-handed pitching and offer better-than-average bullpens, as well.
Among the 25 most comparable games to this one in numberFire's database, teams similar to the Phillies have a 16-9 record outright and are 19-6 on the runline. The home advantage is looking strong for the Phillies, according to the model.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs
Cubs Moneyline (-148): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Cubs -1.5 (+146): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model is pitting the Chicago Cubs' odds at 59.9% to improve their record to 39-57 tonight at home against the 40-56 Pittsburgh Pirates.
JT Brubaker (2-8, 4.02 ERA, 3.85 expected ERA) has strikeout upside but doesn't really do well to limit free passes (he has a 9.5% walk rate), which should certainly benefit the Cubs.
In the other half of the inning, we'll be seeing Adrian Sampson (0-1, 3.34 ERA, 3.69 expected ERA) build on a 32.1-inning sample for the year.
The Cubs' active roster (107 wRC+, 31.7% hard-hit rate) hits righties much better than the Pirates' (73 wRC+, 29.6% hard-hit rate) and should be able to draw walks (9.3%), too.
Teams representing the Cubs in our strongest predictor matchups are 16-9 outright and 14-11 on the runline.