MLB
MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Friday 7/22/22
Betting MLB player props or playing daily fantasy baseball? See who is most likely to homer, rack up the most strikeouts, and score the most runs today.

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
STLGraham
Ashcraft
10.05.4546.2%30.6%18.4%10.1%5.1%
NYYTyler
Wells
9.04.9237.0%22.6%12.5%6.3%2.9%
PHIJustin
Steele
9.04.7333.7%19.9%10.7%5.2%2.3%
TBBrad
Keller
9.04.6732.6%19.1%10.1%4.9%2.1%
TORNathan
Eovaldi
9.04.6131.6%18.3%9.6%4.6%2.0%
CHWCal
Quantrill
8.54.6031.4%18.2%9.5%4.5%2.0%
CINAdam
Wainwright
10.04.5530.6%17.5%9.1%4.3%1.8%
BOSKevin
Gausman
9.04.3927.8%15.5%7.8%3.5%1.5%
HOUMarco
Gonzales
8.54.3326.8%14.8%7.3%3.3%1.3%
KCDrew
Rasmussen
9.04.3326.8%14.8%7.3%3.3%1.3%
MILAntonio
Senzatela
7.04.2926.2%14.3%7.0%3.1%1.3%
LADLogan
Webb
8.04.2826.0%14.2%7.0%3.1%1.3%
CHCKyle
Gibson
9.04.2725.8%14.1%6.9%3.1%1.2%
SEAJose
Urquidy
8.54.1724.2%12.9%6.2%2.7%1.1%
BALJameson
Taillon
9.04.0822.7%11.9%5.6%2.4%0.9%
NYMYu
Darvish
7.03.9520.7%10.6%4.8%2.0%0.7%
CLELucas
Giolito
8.53.9019.9%10.1%4.5%1.9%0.7%
ATLShohei
Ohtani
7.03.8318.9%9.4%4.2%1.7%0.6%
TEXCole
Irvin
7.53.8118.6%9.2%4.1%1.6%0.6%
SFTyler
Anderson
8.03.7217.3%8.4%3.6%1.4%0.5%
OAKSpencer
Howard
7.53.6916.8%8.1%3.5%1.3%0.5%
LAACharlie
Morton
7.03.1710.2%4.3%1.6%0.5%0.2%
SDMax
Scherzer
7.03.058.9%3.6%1.3%0.4%0.1%
COLCorbin
Burnes
7.02.715.8%2.1%0.7%0.2%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Corbin
Burnes
COL8.396.6%91.7%83.6%72.3%58.9%45.1%32.3%
Max
Scherzer
SD7.493.5%85.7%74.3%60.2%45.5%31.9%20.8%
Charlie
Morton
LAA6.890.8%80.9%67.4%52.2%37.3%24.6%15.1%
Shohei
Ohtani
ATL6.689.4%78.5%64.2%48.6%33.9%21.8%13.0%
Lucas
Giolito
CLE6.488.3%76.7%61.9%46.1%31.6%19.9%11.6%
Yu
Darvish
NYM6.286.5%74.0%58.4%42.4%28.3%17.3%9.8%
Kevin
Gausman
BOS5.984.1%70.3%54.0%37.9%24.4%14.4%7.8%
Tyler
Anderson
SF5.782.2%67.6%50.8%34.9%21.8%12.5%6.6%
Logan
Webb
LAD5.681.3%66.2%49.3%33.4%20.7%11.7%6.1%
Nathan
Eovaldi
TOR5.680.8%65.6%48.6%32.8%20.2%11.3%5.9%
Zac
Gallen
WSH5.175.4%58.4%40.9%25.9%14.8%7.8%3.7%
Jameson
Taillon
BAL5.073.4%55.8%38.2%23.6%13.2%6.7%3.1%
Patrick
Corbin
ARI4.972.6%54.9%37.4%22.9%12.7%6.4%3.0%
Kyle
Gibson
CHC4.870.9%52.7%35.2%21.2%11.5%5.7%2.6%
Adam
Wainwright
CIN4.870.3%52.0%34.6%20.6%11.1%5.5%2.5%
Justin
Steele
PHI4.667.6%48.9%31.6%18.3%9.6%4.6%2.0%
Jose
Quintana
MIA4.667.1%48.3%31.1%17.9%9.3%4.4%1.9%
Jose
Urquidy
SEA4.666.8%47.9%30.7%17.7%9.2%4.3%1.9%
Braxton
Garrett
PIT4.565.9%47.0%29.9%17.0%8.7%4.1%1.7%
Cal
Quantrill
CHW4.362.5%43.1%26.5%14.5%7.2%3.2%1.3%
Cole
Irvin
TEX4.261.2%41.8%25.3%13.7%6.7%2.9%1.2%
Drew
Rasmussen
KC4.260.6%41.2%24.8%13.4%6.5%2.8%1.1%
Marco
Gonzales
HOU4.259.9%40.4%24.2%12.9%6.2%2.7%1.1%
Graham
Ashcraft
STL4.158.6%39.1%23.1%12.1%5.7%2.4%1.0%
Tyler
Wells
NYY3.953.7%34.2%19.2%9.6%4.3%1.7%0.6%
Antonio
Senzatela
MIL3.546.3%27.5%14.2%6.5%2.7%1.0%0.3%
Brad
Keller
TB3.239.5%21.8%10.4%4.4%1.7%0.6%0.2%
Spencer
Howard
OAK2.932.1%16.2%7.0%2.7%0.9%0.3%0.1%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
Pitcher
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Aaron
Judge
NYYNo112Tyler
Wells
28.5%+250
Eugenio
Suarez
SEANo99Jose
Urquidy
25.8%+290
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes111Lucas
Giolito
25.4%+295
Rhys
Hoskins
PHIYes110Justin
Steele
24.4%+310
C.J.
Cron
COLNo103Corbin
Burnes
23.8%+320
Shohei
Ohtani
LAAYes100Charlie
Morton
23.7%+320
Matt
Carpenter
NYYYes110Tyler
Wells
22.1%+350
Giancarlo
Stanton
NYYNo112Tyler
Wells
22.1%+355
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUNo96Marco
Gonzales
22.0%+355
Josh
Naylor
CLEYes111Lucas
Giolito
21.7%+360
Juan
Soto
WSHYes99Zac
Gallen
21.6%+365
Austin
Riley
ATLNo97Shohei
Ohtani
21.4%+365
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORNo99Nathan
Eovaldi
21.2%+370
Julio
Rodriguez
SEANo99Jose
Urquidy
21.2%+370
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYYes110Tyler
Wells
21.0%+375
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLNo111Graham
Ashcraft
20.8%+380
Nolan
Arenado
STLNo111Graham
Ashcraft
20.8%+380
Anthony
Santander
BALYes110Jameson
Taillon
20.4%+390
Kyle
Schwarber
PHINo106Justin
Steele
20.4%+390
Hunter
Renfroe
MILNo103Antonio
Senzatela
20.2%+395
Rafael
Devers
BOSYes93Kevin
Gausman
20.1%+395
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCNo110Kyle
Gibson
19.5%+415
Wilmer
Flores
SFYes107Tyler
Anderson
19.4%+415
Gleyber
Torres
NYYNo112Tyler
Wells
19.1%+425
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALNo112Jameson
Taillon
19.1%+425
Nolan
Gorman
STLYes113Graham
Ashcraft
18.9%+430
Evan
Longoria
SFYes107Tyler
Anderson
18.8%+435
Danny
Jansen
TORNo99Nathan
Eovaldi
18.5%+440
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORNo99Nathan
Eovaldi
18.5%+440
Bo
Bichette
TORNo99Nathan
Eovaldi
18.5%+440
Willy
Adames
MILNo103Antonio
Senzatela
18.5%+440
Matt
Olson
ATLYes100Shohei
Ohtani
18.4%+445
Pete
Alonso
NYMNo98Yu
Darvish
18.4%+445
Jake
Lamb
LADYes102Logan
Webb
18.1%+450
Jorge
Soler
MIAYes92Jose
Quintana
17.9%+460
Mookie
Betts
LADNo107Logan
Webb
17.8%+460
Ramon
Laureano
OAKNo94Spencer
Howard
17.8%+460
Jose
Altuve
HOUYes99Marco
Gonzales
17.7%+465
Jeremy
Pena
HOUYes99Marco
Gonzales
17.7%+465
Jordan
Luplow
ARIYes93Patrick
Corbin
17.4%+475
George
Springer
TORNo99Nathan
Eovaldi
17.4%+475
Josh
Bell
WSHYes99Zac
Gallen
17.1%+485
Adolis
Garcia
TEXYes94Cole
Irvin
17.0%+490
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCNo92Drew
Rasmussen
17.0%+490
Seiya
Suzuki
CHCNo110Kyle
Gibson
16.9%+490
Freddie
Freeman
LADYes102Logan
Webb
16.9%+495
Matt
Chapman
TORNo99Nathan
Eovaldi
16.8%+495
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes96Jose
Urquidy
16.7%+500
Trea
Turner
LADNo107Logan
Webb
16.5%+505
Ramon
Urias
BALNo112Jameson
Taillon
16.5%+505
Randy
Arozarena
TBNo92Brad
Keller
16.4%+510
Leody
Taveras
TEXYes94Cole
Irvin
16.3%+510
Christian
Walker
ARIYes93Patrick
Corbin
16.2%+515
Ketel
Marte
ARIYes93Patrick
Corbin
16.2%+515
Tyler
Naquin
CINYes113Adam
Wainwright
16.2%+520
Seth
Brown
OAKYes92Spencer
Howard
16.1%+520
Joey
Bart
SFYes107Tyler
Anderson
16.0%+525
Austin
Hays
BALNo112Jameson
Taillon
15.8%+535
J.D.
Martinez
BOSNo99Kevin
Gausman
15.5%+545
Alejandro
Kirk
TORNo99Nathan
Eovaldi
15.5%+545
Corey
Seager
TEXNo92Cole
Irvin
15.4%+550
Rowdy
Tellez
MILYes101Antonio
Senzatela
15.4%+550
Dansby
Swanson
ATLNo97Shohei
Ohtani
15.3%+555
Isaac
Paredes
TBNo92Brad
Keller
15.2%+555
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes110Jameson
Taillon
15.1%+560
Alex
Bregman
HOUYes99Marco
Gonzales
15.0%+565
Sean
Murphy
OAKNo94Spencer
Howard
14.9%+570
Jesse
Winker
SEAYes96Jose
Urquidy
14.8%+575
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes95Yu
Darvish
14.7%+580
Darin
Ruf
SFYes107Tyler
Anderson
14.6%+585
Gavin
Sheets
CHWYes111Cal
Quantrill
14.5%+590
Nolan
Jones
CLEYes111Lucas
Giolito
14.5%+590
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes94Cole
Irvin
14.4%+595
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo106Cal
Quantrill
14.4%+595
Rougned
Odor
BALYes110Jameson
Taillon
14.4%+595
Trey
Mancini
BALNo112Jameson
Taillon
14.3%+600
Maikel
Franco
WSHNo93Zac
Gallen
14.1%+605
Starling
Marte
NYMNo98Yu
Darvish
14.1%+610
Willson
Contreras
CHCNo110Kyle
Gibson
14.1%+610
Marcell
Ozuna
ATLNo97Shohei
Ohtani
14.0%+615
Ronald
Acuna
ATLNo97Shohei
Ohtani
14.0%+615
Taylor
Ward
LAANo97Charlie
Morton
14.0%+615
Dan
Vogelbach
PITNo95Braxton
Garrett
13.7%+630
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes111Cal
Quantrill
13.7%+630
Amed
Rosario
CLENo106Lucas
Giolito
13.7%+630
Chas
McCormick
HOUYes99Marco
Gonzales
13.6%+635
Daulton
Varsho
ARINo99Patrick
Corbin
13.6%+635
DJ
LeMahieu
NYYNo112Tyler
Wells
13.6%+640
Jesus
Aguilar
MIAYes92Jose
Quintana
13.5%+640
Carlos
Santana
SEAYes96Jose
Urquidy
13.5%+640
Randal
Grichuk
COLNo103Corbin
Burnes
13.3%+650
Kris
Bryant
COLNo103Corbin
Burnes
13.3%+650
Elias
Diaz
COLNo103Corbin
Burnes
13.3%+650
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes111Lucas
Giolito
12.9%+670
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWNo106Cal
Quantrill
12.9%+675
Manny
Machado
SDNo98Max
Scherzer
12.8%+680
Eduardo
Escobar
NYMYes95Yu
Darvish
12.7%+685
Jake
Cronenworth
SDYes95Max
Scherzer
12.7%+685
Tommy
Pham
CINNo111Adam
Wainwright
12.7%+690
Charlie
Blackmon
COLYes101Corbin
Burnes
12.7%+690
Luis
Urias
MILNo103Antonio
Senzatela
12.6%+690
Nick
Castellanos
PHIYes110Justin
Steele
12.5%+700
Yadiel
Hernandez
WSHYes99Zac
Gallen
12.5%+705
Ji-Man
Choi
TBYes92Brad
Keller
12.4%+710
Brandon
Lowe
TBYes92Brad
Keller
12.4%+710
Ty
France
SEANo99Jose
Urquidy
12.2%+720
Luis
Robert
CHWNo106Cal
Quantrill
12.2%+720
Luke
Voit
SDNo98Max
Scherzer
12.1%+725
Jose
Trevino
NYYNo112Tyler
Wells
12.0%+735
Eddie
Rosario
ATLYes100Shohei
Ohtani
11.8%+745
Michael
Harris
II
ATLYes100Shohei
Ohtani
11.8%+745
J.T.
Realmuto
PHIYes110Justin
Steele
11.7%+755
Nelson
Cruz
WSHNo93Zac
Gallen
11.6%+765
Seby
Zavala
CHWNo106Cal
Quantrill
11.4%+775
Martin
Maldonado
HOUYes99Marco
Gonzales
11.4%+775
Tomas
Nido
NYMNo98Yu
Darvish
11.4%+775
Jace
Peterson
MILYes101Antonio
Senzatela
11.2%+795
Brendan
Rodgers
COLNo103Corbin
Burnes
11.2%+795
Brandon
Drury
CINNo111Adam
Wainwright
11.1%+800
Jared
Walsh
LAAYes100Charlie
Morton
11.1%+800
Brandon
Marsh
LAAYes100Charlie
Morton
11.1%+800
Kyle
Tucker
HOUNo96Marco
Gonzales
11.0%+810
Ian
Happ
CHCYes106Kyle
Gibson
10.9%+820
Yairo
Munoz
PHIYes110Justin
Steele
10.8%+825
Will
Smith
LADNo107Logan
Webb
10.8%+830
Diego
Castillo
PITYes92Braxton
Garrett
10.7%+835
Jake
Meyers
HOUYes99Marco
Gonzales
10.7%+840
Brandon
Nimmo
NYMYes95Yu
Darvish
10.6%+840
Austin
Slater
SFYes107Tyler
Anderson
10.6%+845
Cody
Bellinger
LADYes102Logan
Webb
10.5%+850
Christian
Yelich
MILYes101Antonio
Senzatela
10.4%+860
Kolten
Wong
MILYes101Antonio
Senzatela
10.4%+860
Ryan
McMahon
COLYes101Corbin
Burnes
10.4%+860
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes100Charlie
Morton
10.3%+865
Marcus
Semien
TEXYes94Cole
Irvin
10.2%+885
Hunter
Dozier
KCNo92Drew
Rasmussen
10.1%+890
Alfonso
Rivas
CHCYes106Kyle
Gibson
10.1%+890
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSNo99Kevin
Gausman
10.0%+895
Lourdes
Gurriel
TORNo99Nathan
Eovaldi
10.0%+895
Michael
Chavis
PITYes92Braxton
Garrett
10.0%+900
Bryan
De
La
Cruz
MIAYes92Jose
Quintana
10.0%+900
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXNo92Cole
Irvin
10.0%+900
Jorge
Alfaro
SDNo98Max
Scherzer
10.0%+905
Matt
Vierling
PHIYes110Justin
Steele
10.0%+905
Franmil
Reyes
CLENo106Lucas
Giolito
9.9%+910
Travis
d'Arnaud
ATLNo97Shohei
Ohtani
9.9%+915
Francisco
Mejia
TBYes92Brad
Keller
9.6%+940
Jorge
Mateo
BALNo112Jameson
Taillon
9.5%+950
Lane
Thomas
WSHNo93Zac
Gallen
9.5%+955
Tyler
O'Neill
STLNo111Graham
Ashcraft
9.5%+960
Christopher
Morel
CHCNo110Kyle
Gibson
9.4%+965
Alek
Thomas
ARINo99Patrick
Corbin
9.4%+965
Jurickson
Profar
SDYes95Max
Scherzer
9.1%+995
Trent
Grisham
SDYes95Max
Scherzer
9.1%+995
Yulieski
Gurriel
HOUYes99Marco
Gonzales
9.1%+1005
Skye
Bolt
OAKYes92Spencer
Howard
8.9%+1025
Connor
Joe
COLNo103Corbin
Burnes
8.8%+1030
Thairo
Estrada
SFYes107Tyler
Anderson
8.8%+1030
Yermin
Mercedes
SFYes107Tyler
Anderson
8.8%+1030
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes110Jameson
Taillon
8.7%+1050
Carson
Kelly
ARIYes93Patrick
Corbin
8.6%+1070
Santiago
Espinal
TORNo99Nathan
Eovaldi
8.5%+1070
Rafael
Ortega
CHCYes106Kyle
Gibson
8.4%+1085
Ben
Gamel
PITNo95Braxton
Garrett
8.4%+1090
Taylor
Walls
TBYes92Brad
Keller
8.1%+1125
Max
Muncy
LADYes102Logan
Webb
8.1%+1130
Corey
Dickerson
STLYes113Graham
Ashcraft
8.0%+1145
Kyle
Farmer
CINNo111Adam
Wainwright
7.7%+1195
Tyler
Stephenson
CINNo111Adam
Wainwright
7.7%+1195
Garrett
Cooper
MIAYes92Jose
Quintana
7.7%+1200
Ha-Seong
Kim
SDNo98Max
Scherzer
7.7%+1205
Max
Stassi
LAANo97Charlie
Morton
7.6%+1215
Franchy
Cordero
BOSYes93Kevin
Gausman
7.5%+1240
Tim
Anderson
CHWNo106Cal
Quantrill
7.4%+1250
Vimael
Machin
OAKYes92Spencer
Howard
7.4%+1250
Kyle
Isbel
KCYes92Drew
Rasmussen
7.4%+1250
Vinnie
Pasquantino
KCYes92Drew
Rasmussen
7.4%+1250
Yandy
Diaz
TBNo92Brad
Keller
7.2%+1280
David
Villar
SFYes107Tyler
Anderson
7.0%+1325
Jake
Marisnick
PITYes92Braxton
Garrett
6.9%+1350
J.P.
Crawford
SEAYes96Jose
Urquidy
6.9%+1350
Jonathan
India
CINNo111Adam
Wainwright
6.8%+1365
Yan
Gomes
CHCNo110Kyle
Gibson
6.8%+1375
Elvis
Andrus
OAKNo94Spencer
Howard
6.6%+1410
Eloy
Jimenez
CHWNo106Cal
Quantrill
6.5%+1430
Myles
Straw
CLENo106Lucas
Giolito
6.5%+1430
Whit
Merrifield
KCNo92Drew
Rasmussen
6.5%+1440
Harold
Ramirez
TBNo92Brad
Keller
6.5%+1440
Gavin
Lux
LADYes102Logan
Webb
6.5%+1450
Oneil
Cruz
PITNo95Braxton
Garrett
6.4%+1450
Andrew
McCutchen
MILNo103Antonio
Senzatela
6.4%+1470
Alec
Bohm
PHIYes110Justin
Steele
6.2%+1500

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