MLB Betting Guide: Friday 7/22/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Phillies Moneyline (-136): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Philly is taking on Justin Steele, and the Phils have been pretty dang good versus lefties, ranking ninth in wOBA (.332) in the split with the eighth-highest fly-ball rate (37.7%). Steele is punching out only 19.05 of right-handed hitters, and he should have his hands full with the likes of Rhys Hoskins, Nick Castellanos and J.T. Realmuto.
Kyle Gibson is going for the Phillies. He's got a solid 4.06 SIERA, and while his 19.8% strikeout rate is underwhelming, his 11.4% swinging-strike rate points to some positive regression in the strikeout department. He's also limiting hard contact (29.7% hard-hit rate) and fly-balls (34.3% fly-ball rate).
Our algorithm is backing the Phillies' offense to do some damage as we have Philly winning by a score of 5.31-4.34. We give the Phils a 62.7% chance to win. The -136 moneyline price implies win odds of 57.6%, creating value in taking the Phillies on the moneyline. We rate it as a two-star bet (two-unit recommendation).
Over 7.0 (-128): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
We've got two poor offenses going in this one, but we also have two pedestrian pitchers on the bump. Our numbers like the over.
Spencer Howard is up for the Texas Rangers. Once a hyped-up prospect, Howard is struggling mightily, sporting a 4.73 SIERA in 70 1/3 innings since the start of 2021. He's allowed a 40.0% fly-ball rate and 1.92 homers per nine in that span.
The fact that the over/under is only 7.0 despite how blah Irvin and Howard are tells you how little oddsmakers respect these offenses. With that said, there is some reason for optimism today for each.
Texas has some quality righty bats in Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia, and they are a solid 13th in wOBA (.322) over the last 14 days. Oakland, meanwhile, is averaging 5.0 runs per game over their last eight outings.
We have Oakland winning 4.38-4.24. That's 8.62 total runs, and we think the over wins out 58.9% of the time. It's a three-star bet, according to our numbers.