MLB
MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Thursday 7/21/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp
SP
O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
LAD Carlos
Rodon
8.0 4.28 26.0% 14.2% 7.0% 3.1% 1.3%
HOU Gerrit
Cole
8.0 4.10 23.1% 12.1% 5.7% 2.4% 1.0%
DET Zach
Logue
7.5 4.03 22.0% 11.4% 5.3% 2.2% 0.9%
NYY Cristian
Javier
8.0 3.90 19.9% 10.1% 4.5% 1.9% 0.7%
OAK Garrett
Hill
7.0 3.83 18.9% 9.4% 4.2% 1.7% 0.6%
SF Mitch
White
8.0 3.72 17.3% 8.4% 3.6% 1.4% 0.5%
MIA Jon
Gray
7.0 3.53 14.6% 6.8% 2.8% 1.0% 0.4%
OAK Tarik
Skubal
7.5 3.47 13.8% 6.3% 2.6% 0.9% 0.3%
TEX Pablo
Lopez
7.0 3.47 13.8% 6.3% 2.6% 0.9% 0.3%
DET Frankie
Montas
7.0 3.17 10.2% 4.3% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Gerrit
Cole
HOU 7.4 93.5% 85.7% 74.2% 60.1% 45.3% 31.8% 20.7%
Carlos
Rodon
LAD 6.8 90.6% 80.6% 67.0% 51.7% 36.9% 24.3% 14.8%
Jon
Gray
MIA 6.0 84.9% 71.5% 55.4% 39.4% 25.6% 15.3% 8.4%
Frankie
Montas
DET 5.4 78.1% 61.9% 44.5% 29.1% 17.2% 9.3% 4.6%
Jameson
Taillon
HOU 4.5 65.1% 46.0% 29.0% 16.4% 8.3% 3.8% 1.6%
Pablo
Lopez
TEX 5.4 78.3% 62.2% 44.9% 29.4% 17.5% 9.5% 4.7%
Cristian
Javier
NYY 6.5 89.0% 78.0% 63.5% 47.8% 33.2% 21.2% 12.5%
Tarik
Skubal
OAK 4.9 72.5% 54.7% 37.2% 22.8% 12.6% 6.4% 2.9%
Mitch
White
SF 5.8 82.9% 68.6% 52.0% 36.0% 22.8% 13.2% 7.0%
Luis
Garcia
NYY 5.6 81.2% 66.1% 49.2% 33.3% 20.6% 11.6% 6.0%
Zach
Logue
DET 4.7 68.2% 49.6% 32.3% 18.9% 9.9% 4.8% 2.1%
Garrett
Hill
OAK 3.5 47.2% 28.2% 14.8% 6.8% 2.8% 1.1% 0.4%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Aaron
Judge
NYY No 101 Luis
Garcia
23.9% +320
Anthony
Rizzo
NYY Yes 102 Cristian
Javier
23.5% +325
Joc
Pederson
SF Yes 102 Mitch
White
23.5% +325
Jose
Altuve
HOU No 101 Jameson
Taillon
23.0% +335
Giancarlo
Stanton
NYY No 101 Luis
Garcia
23.0% +335
Aaron
Judge
NYY No 101 Cristian
Javier
22.0% +355
Giancarlo
Stanton
NYY No 101 Cristian
Javier
21.5% +365
Kyle
Tucker
HOU Yes 102 Gerrit
Cole
19.9% +405
Eric
Haase
DET Yes 94 Zach
Logue
19.9% +405
Wilmer
Flores
SF No 107 Mitch
White
19.6% +410
Corey
Seager
TEX Yes 92 Pablo
Lopez
19.4% +415
Anthony
Rizzo
NYY Yes 102 Luis
Garcia
19.3% +420
Matt
Carpenter
NYY Yes 102 Luis
Garcia
19.3% +420
Matt
Carpenter
NYY Yes 102 Cristian
Javier
19.3% +420
Chas
McCormick
HOU No 101 Jameson
Taillon
18.8% +430
Ramon
Laureano
OAK Yes 94 Tarik
Skubal
18.7% +435
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEX Yes 92 Pablo
Lopez
18.4% +445
Jose
Altuve
HOU No 101 Gerrit
Cole
18.2% +450
Alex
Bregman
HOU No 101 Jameson
Taillon
17.6% +465
Javier
Baez
DET Yes 94 Zach
Logue
17.0% +490
Sean
Murphy
OAK No 94 Garrett
Hill
16.7% +500
Evan
Longoria
SF No 107 Mitch
White
16.5% +505
Joey
Bart
SF No 107 Mitch
White
16.5% +505
Chas
McCormick
HOU No 101 Gerrit
Cole
15.8% +535
Sean
Murphy
OAK Yes 94 Tarik
Skubal
15.7% +535
Jorge
Soler
MIA No 90 Jon
Gray
15.5% +545
Ramon
Laureano
OAK No 94 Garrett
Hill
15.5% +545
Mookie
Betts
LAD Yes 107 Carlos
Rodon
15.3% +555
Martin
Maldonado
HOU No 101 Jameson
Taillon
15.1% +560
Freddie
Freeman
LAD No 102 Carlos
Rodon
15.1% +560
Adolis
Garcia
TEX No 90 Pablo
Lopez
15.0% +570
Kyle
Tucker
HOU Yes 102 Jameson
Taillon
14.9% +570
Mike
Yastrzemski
SF Yes 102 Mitch
White
14.9% +570
Jeremy
Pena
HOU No 101 Jameson
Taillon
14.5% +590
Chad
Pinder
OAK Yes 94 Tarik
Skubal
14.4% +595
Aledmys
Diaz
HOU No 101 Jameson
Taillon
13.8% +625
Jesus
Sanchez
MIA Yes 92 Jon
Gray
13.7% +630
Chad
Pinder
OAK No 94 Garrett
Hill
13.6% +635
Josh
Donaldson
NYY No 101 Luis
Garcia
13.1% +660
Jose
Trevino
NYY No 101 Luis
Garcia
13.1% +660
Trea
Turner
LAD Yes 107 Carlos
Rodon
13.0% +670
Marcus
Semien
TEX No 90 Pablo
Lopez
12.5% +700
Garrett
Cooper
MIA No 90 Jon
Gray
12.5% +700
Jeimer
Candelario
DET Yes 94 Zach
Logue
12.4% +710
Stephen
Vogt
OAK Yes 92 Garrett
Hill
12.4% +710
DJ
LeMahieu
NYY No 101 Cristian
Javier
11.7% +755
Alex
Bregman
HOU No 101 Gerrit
Cole
11.7% +755
Kole
Calhoun
TEX Yes 92 Pablo
Lopez
11.7% +755
Austin
Slater
SF No 107 Mitch
White
11.5% +765
Justin
Turner
LAD Yes 107 Carlos
Rodon
11.4% +775
Aaron
Hicks
NYY Yes 102 Cristian
Javier
11.3% +785
Jesus
Aguilar
MIA No 90 Jon
Gray
11.2% +790
Brad
Miller
TEX Yes 92 Pablo
Lopez
11.0% +810
Leody
Taveras
TEX Yes 92 Pablo
Lopez
11.0% +810
Javier
Baez
DET No 94 Frankie
Montas
11.0% +810
Jeremy
Pena
HOU No 101 Gerrit
Cole
11.0% +810
Aaron
Hicks
NYY Yes 102 Luis
Garcia
10.5% +850
Tucker
Barnhart
DET Yes 92 Frankie
Montas
10.3% +870
Riley
Greene
DET Yes 92 Frankie
Montas
9.6% +940
DJ
LeMahieu
NYY No 101 Luis
Garcia
9.5% +955
Josh
Donaldson
NYY No 101 Cristian
Javier
9.5% +955
Aledmys
Diaz
HOU No 101 Gerrit
Cole
9.5% +955
Yulieski
Gurriel
HOU No 101 Gerrit
Cole
9.5% +955
Seth
Brown
OAK Yes 92 Garrett
Hill
8.9% +1025
Will
Smith
LAD Yes 107 Carlos
Rodon
8.8% +1030
Skye
Bolt
OAK Yes 94 Tarik
Skubal
8.6% +1055
Brian
Anderson
MIA No 90 Jon
Gray
8.5% +1070
Thairo
Estrada
SF No 107 Mitch
White
8.3% +1100
Yermin
Mercedes
SF No 107 Mitch
White
8.3% +1100
Cody
Bellinger
LAD No 102 Carlos
Rodon
8.3% +1105
Jeimer
Candelario
DET Yes 92 Frankie
Montas
8.1% +1125
Jake
Meyers
HOU No 101 Jameson
Taillon
7.9% +1165
Elvis
Andrus
OAK Yes 94 Tarik
Skubal
7.9% +1175
Jonathan
Schoop
DET Yes 94 Zach
Logue
7.9% +1175
Willi
Castro
DET Yes 94 Zach
Logue
7.9% +1175
Riley
Greene
DET No 92 Zach
Logue
7.5% +1225
Skye
Bolt
OAK Yes 92 Garrett
Hill
7.4% +1250
Nick
Fortes
MIA No 90 Jon
Gray
7.1% +1310
Yulieski
Gurriel
HOU No 101 Jameson
Taillon
7.1% +1310
Kyle
Higashioka
NYY No 101 Cristian
Javier
7.1% +1310
Trayce
Thompson
LAD Yes 107 Carlos
Rodon
7.0% +1325
Max
Muncy
LAD No 102 Carlos
Rodon
6.9% +1350
Joey
Wendle
MIA Yes 92 Jon
Gray
6.6% +1405
Miguel
Cabrera
DET Yes 94 Zach
Logue
6.2% +1505
Robbie
Grossman
DET Yes 94 Zach
Logue
6.2% +1505

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