MLB
MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Friday 7/15/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
COLJose
Quintana
11.05.9154.0%37.9%24.4%14.4%7.8%
TORZack
Greinke
8.55.4145.6%30.0%18.0%9.8%4.9%
ATLPatrick
Corbin
9.55.2442.6%27.4%16.0%8.5%4.1%
PITGerman
Marquez
11.05.0940.0%25.1%14.3%7.4%3.5%
CLEDrew
Hutchison
8.54.8435.6%21.5%11.7%5.8%2.6%
MINMichael
Kopech
9.04.7934.7%20.8%11.2%5.5%2.5%
NYYNathan
Eovaldi
8.54.6933.0%19.4%10.3%5.0%2.2%
NYMMarcus
Stroman
9.04.6732.6%19.1%10.1%4.9%2.1%
STLHunter
Greene
8.54.6331.9%18.6%9.8%4.7%2.0%
HOUCole
Irvin
8.04.5831.1%17.9%9.3%4.4%1.9%
LADPatrick
Sandoval
8.04.5831.1%17.9%9.3%4.4%1.9%
SEATaylor
Hearn
8.04.4629.0%16.4%8.3%3.8%1.6%
CHCTaijuan
Walker
9.04.3326.8%14.8%7.3%3.3%1.3%
SDMadison
Bumgarner
7.54.2725.8%14.1%6.9%3.1%1.2%
WSHIan
Anderson
9.54.2625.7%13.9%6.8%3.0%1.2%
CHWDevin
Smeltzer
9.04.2124.8%13.4%6.5%2.8%1.1%
CINAndre
Pallante
8.53.8719.5%9.8%4.4%1.8%0.7%
MIAKyle
Gibson
7.03.8619.3%9.7%4.3%1.7%0.6%
TBTyler
Wells
7.53.8218.7%9.3%4.1%1.6%0.6%
BOSJordan
Montgomery
8.53.8118.6%9.2%4.1%1.6%0.6%
BALLuis
Patino
7.53.6816.7%8.0%3.4%1.3%0.5%
DETZach
Plesac
8.53.6616.4%7.8%3.3%1.3%0.5%
MILAlex
Wood
7.03.6316.0%7.6%3.2%1.2%0.4%
TEXRobbie
Ray
8.03.5414.8%6.8%2.8%1.1%0.4%
LAAClayton
Kershaw
8.03.4213.2%5.9%2.4%0.9%0.3%
OAKJake
Odorizzi
8.03.4213.2%5.9%2.4%0.9%0.3%
SFBrandon
Woodruff
7.03.3712.6%5.6%2.2%0.8%0.3%
ARIYu
Darvish
7.53.2310.9%4.6%1.8%0.6%0.2%
PHISandy
Alcantara
7.03.149.9%4.1%1.5%0.5%0.2%
KCAlek
Manoah
8.53.099.3%3.8%1.4%0.5%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Matt
Bush
SEA7.393.3%85.3%73.6%59.4%44.6%31.1%20.1%
Yu
Darvish
ARI6.488.2%76.6%61.8%45.9%31.4%19.8%11.5%
Alek
Manoah
KC6.487.7%75.9%60.9%45.0%30.5%19.1%11.0%
Sandy
Alcantara
PHI6.387.6%75.7%60.6%44.7%30.3%18.9%10.9%
Robbie
Ray
TEX6.387.1%74.9%59.7%43.7%29.4%18.2%10.4%
Clayton
Kershaw
LAA6.084.8%71.4%55.3%39.2%25.5%15.2%8.3%
Patrick
Sandoval
LAD5.984.2%70.5%54.3%38.2%24.6%14.6%7.9%
Jordan
Montgomery
BOS5.782.3%67.7%51.0%35.0%22.0%12.6%6.7%
Brandon
Woodruff
SF5.580.1%64.6%47.5%31.7%19.3%10.7%5.5%
Zach
Plesac
DET5.276.6%59.9%42.4%27.2%15.8%8.4%4.1%
Hunter
Greene
STL5.175.4%58.4%40.9%25.9%14.8%7.8%3.7%
Kyle
Gibson
MIA4.972.1%54.2%36.6%22.3%12.3%6.2%2.8%
German
Marquez
PIT4.971.5%53.5%35.9%21.8%11.9%5.9%2.7%
Alex
Wood
MIL4.871.0%52.9%35.4%21.3%11.6%5.8%2.6%
Nathan
Eovaldi
NYY4.870.9%52.7%35.2%21.2%11.5%5.7%2.6%
Taijuan
Walker
CHC4.870.3%52.0%34.6%20.6%11.1%5.5%2.5%
Ian
Anderson
WSH4.870.1%51.8%34.4%20.5%11.0%5.4%2.4%
Patrick
Corbin
ATL4.666.9%48.1%30.9%17.8%9.2%4.4%1.9%
Michael
Kopech
MIN4.464.1%44.9%28.0%15.6%7.9%3.6%1.5%
Marcus
Stroman
NYM4.463.7%44.5%27.7%15.4%7.7%3.5%1.4%
Jake
Odorizzi
OAK4.361.7%42.4%25.8%14.1%6.9%3.1%1.2%
Madison
Bumgarner
SD4.260.1%40.6%24.4%13.0%6.3%2.7%1.1%
Jose
Quintana
COL4.159.2%39.7%23.6%12.5%5.9%2.5%1.0%
Devin
Smeltzer
CHW4.157.6%38.1%22.3%11.6%5.4%2.3%0.9%
Andre
Pallante
CIN4.056.8%37.3%21.6%11.2%5.2%2.2%0.8%
Cole
Irvin
HOU4.055.7%36.1%20.7%10.6%4.8%2.0%0.7%
Luis
Patino
BAL3.852.9%33.4%18.6%9.2%4.1%1.6%0.6%
Tyler
Wells
TB3.648.5%29.4%15.6%7.3%3.1%1.2%0.4%
Zack
Greinke
TOR3.444.6%26.0%13.2%5.9%2.4%0.9%0.3%
Drew
Hutchison
CLE3.238.9%21.2%10.1%4.2%1.6%0.5%0.2%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
Pitcher
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Aaron
Judge
NYYNo103Nathan
Eovaldi
29.0%+245
Jose
Altuve
HOUYes101Cole
Irvin
24.5%+310
Adolis
Garcia
TEXYes95Robbie
Ray
23.1%+335
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALNo94Luis
Patino
22.3%+345
Dansby
Swanson
ATLYes106Patrick
Corbin
22.2%+350
Giancarlo
Stanton
NYYNo103Nathan
Eovaldi
21.8%+360
Pete
Alonso
NYMNo103Marcus
Stroman
21.8%+360
Tyler
Naquin
CINYes97Andre
Pallante
21.3%+370
Mookie
Betts
LADYes103Patrick
Sandoval
21.2%+370
Trea
Turner
LADYes103Patrick
Sandoval
21.2%+370
Ronald
Acuna
ATLYes106Patrick
Corbin
21.1%+375
Manny
Machado
SDYes96Madison
Bumgarner
20.7%+385
Corey
Seager
TEXNo101Robbie
Ray
20.6%+385
Travis
d'Arnaud
ATLYes106Patrick
Corbin
20.5%+390
Aledmys
Diaz
HOUYes101Cole
Irvin
20.4%+390
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes101Matt
Bush
20.3%+395
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCNo103Taijuan
Walker
20.2%+395
Josh
Naylor
CLEYes103Drew
Hutchison
20.0%+400
George
Springer
TORNo101Zack
Greinke
19.9%+400
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORNo101Zack
Greinke
19.9%+400
Isaac
Paredes
TBNo94Tyler
Wells
19.9%+400
Austin
Riley
ATLYes106Patrick
Corbin
19.9%+405
C.J.
Cron
COLYes108Jose
Quintana
19.5%+410
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLNo91Hunter
Greene
19.5%+415
Juan
Yepez
STLNo91Hunter
Greene
19.5%+415
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes103Drew
Hutchison
19.4%+415
Ramon
Laureano
OAKNo101Jake
Odorizzi
19.4%+415
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORNo101Zack
Greinke
19.4%+415
Marcell
Ozuna
ATLYes106Patrick
Corbin
19.3%+420
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYYes109Nathan
Eovaldi
19.0%+425
Jack
Suwinski
PITYes109German
Marquez
19.0%+425
Josh
Bell
WSHYes104Ian
Anderson
19.0%+425
Danny
Jansen
TORNo101Zack
Greinke
18.8%+430
Luis
Urias
MILYes90Alex
Wood
18.7%+435
Eugenio
Suarez
SEANo95Matt
Bush
18.5%+440
Anthony
Santander
BALYes92Luis
Patino
18.4%+445
Trevor
Story
BOSYes103Jordan
Montgomery
18.2%+450
Charlie
Blackmon
COLNo109Jose
Quintana
18.2%+450
Willy
Adames
MILYes90Alex
Wood
18.1%+450
Alex
Bregman
HOUYes101Cole
Irvin
17.9%+455
Byron
Buxton
MINNo98Michael
Kopech
17.8%+460
Wilmer
Flores
SFNo90Brandon
Woodruff
17.7%+465
Luis
Robert
CHWYes98Devin
Smeltzer
17.5%+470
Julio
Rodriguez
SEANo95Matt
Bush
17.4%+475
Willson
Contreras
CHCNo103Taijuan
Walker
17.3%+480
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes96Marcus
Stroman
17.3%+480
Dan
Vogelbach
PITYes109German
Marquez
17.1%+485
Joc
Pederson
SFYes87Brandon
Woodruff
17.1%+485
Sean
Murphy
OAKNo101Jake
Odorizzi
17.0%+485
Mike
Trout
LAAYes103Clayton
Kershaw
16.9%+490
Adam
Duvall
ATLYes106Patrick
Corbin
16.6%+500
Bo
Bichette
TORNo101Zack
Greinke
16.4%+510
Christian
Walker
ARINo96Yu
Darvish
16.4%+510
Jose
Abreu
CHWYes98Devin
Smeltzer
16.3%+515
Nolan
Arenado
STLNo91Hunter
Greene
16.2%+515
Seth
Brown
OAKYes102Jake
Odorizzi
16.2%+515
Javier
Baez
DETNo99Zach
Plesac
16.2%+520
Randal
Grichuk
COLYes108Jose
Quintana
16.1%+520
Josh
Donaldson
NYYNo103Nathan
Eovaldi
16.0%+525
Gio
Urshela
MINNo98Michael
Kopech
16.0%+525
Luke
Voit
SDYes96Madison
Bumgarner
16.0%+525
Jeremy
Pena
HOUYes101Cole
Irvin
16.0%+525
Matt
Olson
ATLNo104Patrick
Corbin
15.9%+525
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes95Robbie
Ray
15.9%+530
Matt
Chapman
TORNo101Zack
Greinke
15.8%+535
Hunter
Renfroe
MILYes90Alex
Wood
15.8%+535
Kyle
Tucker
HOUNo102Cole
Irvin
15.7%+535
J.D.
Martinez
BOSYes103Jordan
Montgomery
15.5%+545
Max
Stassi
LAAYes103Clayton
Kershaw
15.5%+545
Rhys
Hoskins
PHINo90Sandy
Alcantara
15.5%+545
Kyle
Schwarber
PHIYes92Sandy
Alcantara
15.5%+545
Starling
Marte
NYMNo103Marcus
Stroman
15.4%+550
Rafael
Devers
BOSNo109Jordan
Montgomery
15.4%+550
Ketel
Marte
ARIYes95Yu
Darvish
15.3%+555
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCNo101Alek
Manoah
15.1%+560
Juan
Soto
WSHYes104Ian
Anderson
15.1%+560
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWYes98Devin
Smeltzer
14.9%+570
David
Peralta
ARIYes95Yu
Darvish
14.7%+580
Chas
McCormick
HOUYes101Cole
Irvin
14.6%+585
Jorge
Polanco
MINYes99Michael
Kopech
14.5%+590
Tommy
Pham
CINNo91Andre
Pallante
14.5%+590
Brandon
Drury
CINNo91Andre
Pallante
14.5%+590
Jesus
Aguilar
MIANo90Kyle
Gibson
14.4%+595
Didi
Gregorius
PHIYes92Sandy
Alcantara
14.3%+600
Austin
Hays
BALNo94Luis
Patino
14.3%+600
Ramon
Urias
BALNo94Luis
Patino
14.3%+600
A.J.
Pollock
CHWYes98Devin
Smeltzer
14.2%+605
Eduardo
Escobar
NYMYes96Marcus
Stroman
14.2%+605
Brandon
Nimmo
NYMYes96Marcus
Stroman
14.2%+605
Taylor
Ward
LAAYes103Clayton
Kershaw
14.1%+610
Brendan
Rodgers
COLYes108Jose
Quintana
13.9%+620
Lourdes
Gurriel
TORNo101Zack
Greinke
13.8%+625
Nelson
Cruz
WSHNo106Ian
Anderson
13.7%+630
Michael
Harris
II
ATLNo104Patrick
Corbin
13.6%+635
Tucker
Barnhart
DETYes103Zach
Plesac
13.6%+635
Oneil
Cruz
PITYes109German
Marquez
13.5%+640
Daulton
Varsho
ARIYes95Yu
Darvish
13.4%+650
Jose
Trevino
NYYNo103Nathan
Eovaldi
13.3%+650
Andrew
McCutchen
MILYes90Alex
Wood
13.3%+655
Max
Kepler
MINYes99Michael
Kopech
13.2%+660
Garrett
Cooper
MIANo90Kyle
Gibson
13.1%+660
Ty
France
SEANo95Matt
Bush
13.1%+665
Trey
Mancini
BALNo94Luis
Patino
13.0%+670
Dylan
Carlson
STLYes97Hunter
Greene
12.9%+675
Franmil
Reyes
CLENo99Drew
Hutchison
12.9%+675
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes103Drew
Hutchison
12.9%+675
Seby
Zavala
CHWYes98Devin
Smeltzer
12.8%+680
Shohei
Ohtani
LAANo108Clayton
Kershaw
12.8%+680
Jake
Cronenworth
SDNo95Madison
Bumgarner
12.6%+695
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes103Clayton
Kershaw
12.6%+695
Will
Smith
LADYes103Patrick
Sandoval
12.6%+695
Jorge
Alfaro
SDYes96Madison
Bumgarner
12.6%+695
Marcus
Semien
TEXYes95Robbie
Ray
12.5%+700
Alejandro
Kirk
TORNo101Zack
Greinke
12.4%+705
Brandon
Belt
SFYes87Brandon
Woodruff
12.4%+705
Elias
Diaz
COLYes108Jose
Quintana
12.3%+710
Joey
Votto
CINYes97Andre
Pallante
12.2%+715
Harold
Castro
DETYes103Zach
Plesac
12.1%+725
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXNo101Robbie
Ray
12.1%+730
Tim
Anderson
CHWYes98Devin
Smeltzer
12.1%+730
Victor
Caratini
MILYes90Alex
Wood
11.9%+740
DJ
LeMahieu
NYYNo103Nathan
Eovaldi
11.9%+740
Mark
Canha
NYMNo103Marcus
Stroman
11.9%+740
David
Bote
CHCNo103Taijuan
Walker
11.9%+740
Mike
Yastrzemski
SFYes87Brandon
Woodruff
11.8%+750
Leody
Taveras
TEXYes95Robbie
Ray
11.8%+750
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes92Luis
Patino
11.7%+755
Martin
Maldonado
HOUYes101Cole
Irvin
11.6%+760
Nolan
Gorman
STLYes97Hunter
Greene
11.5%+765
Kole
Calhoun
TEXNo101Robbie
Ray
11.5%+770
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes98Devin
Smeltzer
11.3%+785
Jesse
Winker
SEAYes101Matt
Bush
11.2%+795
Seiya
Suzuki
CHCNo103Taijuan
Walker
11.2%+795
Dylan
Moore
SEANo95Matt
Bush
11.1%+800
Justin
Turner
LADYes103Patrick
Sandoval
11.0%+805
Robert
Refsnyder
BOSYes103Jordan
Montgomery
11.0%+805
Rougned
Odor
BALYes92Luis
Patino
11.0%+810
Yulieski
Gurriel
HOUYes101Cole
Irvin
10.8%+820
Freddie
Freeman
LADNo108Patrick
Sandoval
10.8%+825
Cody
Bellinger
LADNo108Patrick
Sandoval
10.8%+825
Kyle
Farmer
CINNo91Andre
Pallante
10.7%+835
Carlos
Correa
MINNo98Michael
Kopech
10.7%+835
Lane
Thomas
WSHNo106Ian
Anderson
10.7%+835
Brian
Anderson
MIANo90Kyle
Gibson
10.6%+845
Joey
Bart
SFNo90Brandon
Woodruff
10.6%+845
Carlos
Santana
SEAYes101Matt
Bush
10.4%+860
Gleyber
Torres
NYYNo103Nathan
Eovaldi
10.4%+860
Ben
Gamel
PITYes109German
Marquez
10.3%+865
Michael
Perez
PITYes109German
Marquez
10.3%+865
Trayce
Thompson
LADYes103Patrick
Sandoval
10.2%+880
Max
Muncy
LADNo108Patrick
Sandoval
10.1%+885
Brendan
Donovan
STLYes97Hunter
Greene
10.1%+895
Spencer
Torkelson
DETNo99Zach
Plesac
10.0%+895
Ian
Happ
CHCYes96Taijuan
Walker
10.0%+900
Yadiel
Hernandez
WSHYes104Ian
Anderson
9.9%+910
Alek
Thomas
ARIYes95Yu
Darvish
9.9%+910
Connor
Joe
COLYes108Jose
Quintana
9.8%+920
Michael
Brosseau
MILYes90Alex
Wood
9.8%+920
Josh
Harrison
CHWYes98Devin
Smeltzer
9.8%+925
Eloy
Jimenez
CHWYes98Devin
Smeltzer
9.8%+925
Joey
Wendle
MIAYes92Kyle
Gibson
9.6%+940
Randy
Arozarena
TBNo94Tyler
Wells
9.6%+945
Ryan
McMahon
COLNo109Jose
Quintana
9.5%+950
Sam
Huff
TEXYes95Robbie
Ray
9.5%+950
Yoshitomo
Tsutsugo
PITYes109German
Marquez
9.5%+955
Alex
Kirilloff
MINYes99Michael
Kopech
9.5%+955
Michael
Taylor
KCNo101Alek
Manoah
9.5%+955
Edward
Olivares
KCNo101Alek
Manoah
9.5%+955
Jo
Adell
LAAYes103Clayton
Kershaw
9.4%+965
Bobby
Dalbec
BOSYes103Jordan
Montgomery
9.4%+965
Avisail
Garcia
MIANo90Kyle
Gibson
9.2%+985
Miguel
Rojas
MIANo90Kyle
Gibson
9.2%+985
LaMonte
Wade Jr
SFYes87Brandon
Woodruff
9.1%+995
Cesar
Hernandez
WSHYes104Ian
Anderson
9.1%+1000
Jeimer
Candelario
DETYes103Zach
Plesac
9.0%+1010
Garrett
Stubbs
PHIYes92Sandy
Alcantara
8.9%+1025
Jesus
Sanchez
MIAYes92Kyle
Gibson
8.9%+1025
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes92Luis
Patino
8.9%+1025
Jorge
Mateo
BALNo94Luis
Patino
8.9%+1025
Tomas
Nido
NYMNo103Marcus
Stroman
8.8%+1030
Santiago
Espinal
TORNo101Zack
Greinke
8.7%+1050
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSYes103Jordan
Montgomery
8.5%+1070
Carson
Kelly
ARINo96Yu
Darvish
8.3%+1105
Keibert
Ruiz
WSHYes104Ian
Anderson
8.3%+1110
Harold
Ramirez
TBNo94Tyler
Wells
8.1%+1130
J.P.
Crawford
SEAYes101Matt
Bush
8.1%+1140
Luis
Arraez
MINYes99Michael
Kopech
7.9%+1165
Stephen
Piscotty
OAKNo101Jake
Odorizzi
7.9%+1165
Emmanuel
Rivera
KCNo101Alek
Manoah
7.9%+1165
Orlando
Arcia
ATLYes106Patrick
Corbin
7.9%+1170
Nick
Castellanos
PHINo90Sandy
Alcantara
7.8%+1180
Brandon
Crawford
SFYes87Brandon
Woodruff
7.7%+1190
Dominic
Smith
NYMYes96Marcus
Stroman
7.7%+1200
Alfonso
Rivas
CHCYes96Taijuan
Walker
7.7%+1200
Justin
Upton
SEANo95Matt
Bush
7.5%+1240
Francisco
Mejia
TBYes92Tyler
Wells
7.4%+1250
Josh
Lowe
TBYes92Tyler
Wells
7.4%+1250
Nico
Hoerner
CHCNo103Taijuan
Walker
7.2%+1285
Ha-Seong
Kim
SDYes96Madison
Bumgarner
7.2%+1290
Jose
Azocar
SDYes96Madison
Bumgarner
7.2%+1290
Elvis
Andrus
OAKNo101Jake
Odorizzi
7.1%+1310
Tommy
Edman
STLYes97Hunter
Greene
7.0%+1335
Jonathan
Schoop
DETNo99Zach
Plesac
7.0%+1340
Austin
Hedges
CLENo99Drew
Hutchison
7.0%+1340
Ryan
Jeffers
MINNo98Michael
Kopech
6.9%+1350
Christian
Vazquez
BOSYes103Jordan
Montgomery
6.8%+1375
Jake
Marisnick
PITNo108German
Marquez
6.7%+1400
Jake
Meyers
HOUYes101Cole
Irvin
6.7%+1405
Odubel
Herrera
PHIYes92Sandy
Alcantara
6.6%+1405
Ji-Man
Choi
TBYes92Tyler
Wells
6.6%+1405
Darick
Hall
PHIYes92Sandy
Alcantara
6.6%+1405
Maikel
Franco
WSHNo106Ian
Anderson
6.5%+1430
Gavin
Lux
LADNo108Patrick
Sandoval
6.5%+1435
Tyler
Stephenson
CINNo91Andre
Pallante
6.4%+1455
Jonathan
India
CINNo91Andre
Pallante
6.4%+1455
Christopher
Morel
CHCNo103Taijuan
Walker
6.4%+1470
Esteury
Ruiz
SDYes96Madison
Bumgarner
6.3%+1475
Nick
Gordon
MINYes99Michael
Kopech
6.3%+1495
Nick
Allen
OAKNo101Jake
Odorizzi
6.3%+1500

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