3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 7/14/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Jorge Polanco To Hit a Home Run (+420)/Carlos Correa To Hit a Home Run (+330)
The Minnesota Twins have a solid 4.65 implied run total tonight and are primed for some offense.
The Chicago White Sox will have Johnny Cueto on the mound tonight, a pitcher who is due for some regression. Overall this season, he comes in with a 2.91 ERA that is noticeably better than his 4.09 xERA. He also has a .267 BABIP, which is lower than the league average of .288. Suffice it to say, he's getting a bit lucky.
If we dig deeper, we see that he is allowing a .384 SLG, 4.67 xFIP, 1.30 HR/9, 40.7% fly-ball rate, and 38.3% hard-contact rate to lefties this season. Against righties, he is allowing a .418 SLG, 3.67 xFIP, 1.12 HR/9, 37.0% fly-ball rate, and 33.6% hard-contact rate.
For some reason, Byron Buxton's home run odds aren't listed yet, but if he's in the lineup, I'll also be on him tonight. That leads us to Jorge Polanco, who comes in with a 138 wRC+, .362 wOBA, .239 ISO, 44.8% fly-ball rate, and 35.2% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.
Next, we have Carlos Correa, who comes in sporting a 126 wRC+, .345 wOBA, .177 ISO, 31.2% fly-ball rate, and 40.4% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.
Of course, we should look to add Polanco To Record an RBI (+130) and Correa To Record an RBI (+135).
Nestor Cortes Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-106)
For a strikeout prop, we turn to Nestor Cortes of the New York Yankees tonight.
Cortes has a 26.9% strikeout rate, 3.66 xFIP, and 10.7% swinging-strike rate on the season. In two of his last three starts, he posted a 28.6% and a 31.8% strikeout rate, an encouraging sign heading into tonight.
He has a favorable matchup tonight against the Cincinnati Reds, who come in with a 23.5% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, which is the eighth-worst in the league.
Since the start of July, the Reds' strikeout rate in this split has jumped to 28.7%, putting them as the fourth-worst team in the league. It's a small sample size, but they are a very undisciplined team at the plate right now, presenting some nice upside for Cortes.
With the Reds whiffing more, going to Cortes 7+ Strikeouts (+196) is worth considering.
Dansby Swanson To Record an RBI (+120)
The Atlanta Braves have a slate-high 5.83 implied team total, and they need to flex their offense tonight.
The Braves dropped two of three to the New York Mets, scoring a total of eight runs in three games. Their offense is much better than that, and frankly, it's time for them to beat up on the basement-dwelling Washington Nationals.
Speaking of the Nationals, they are set to have Anibal Sanchez on the mound, who will be making his season debut. He was on the 60-day injured list to start the season after not pitching last season.
In 2020, Sanchez allowed a .615 SLG, .423 wOBA, 5.79 xFIP, 2.70 HR/9, 40.5% fly-ball rate, and 40.0% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. YIKES. Those are legitimately some of the worst numbers you will see today.
The Braves normally roll out a largely right-handed lineup, and hitting near the top is Dansby Swanson. He comes in with a 120 wRC+, .345 wOBA, .171 ISO, 43.4% fly-ball rate, and 34.1% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season.
It's all about the Braves' offense tonight, and they should be able to pour on the runs. I'm also going to Swanson 2+ RBI (+390).
