MLB
MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Wednesday 7/13/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
SDChad
Kuhl
10.55.8252.5%36.5%23.2%13.5%7.2%
NYYMike
Minor
8.55.3444.3%28.9%17.1%9.3%4.6%
WSHTommy
Milone
9.54.8736.1%21.9%12.0%6.0%2.7%
COLJoe
Musgrove
10.54.6832.8%19.3%10.2%4.9%2.2%
SEAErick
Fedde
9.54.6331.9%18.6%9.8%4.7%2.0%
LADAdam
Wainwright
8.54.5931.3%18.1%9.4%4.5%1.9%
WSHChris
Flexen
9.04.5430.4%17.4%9.0%4.2%1.8%
SEAJosiah
Gray
9.04.4629.0%16.4%8.3%3.8%1.6%
MINAaron
Ashby
8.54.4128.2%15.8%7.9%3.6%1.5%
ATLChris
Bassitt
8.04.3326.8%14.8%7.3%3.3%1.3%
CHWAaron
Civale
8.54.2926.2%14.3%7.0%3.1%1.3%
CHCSpenser
Watkins
8.04.2625.7%13.9%6.8%3.0%1.2%
CLELucas
Giolito
8.54.2124.8%13.4%6.5%2.8%1.1%
SFZac
Gallen
8.04.1523.9%12.7%6.1%2.6%1.0%
KCTarik
Skubal
8.04.1323.6%12.5%5.9%2.5%1.0%
MILJoe
Ryan
8.54.0922.9%12.0%5.7%2.4%0.9%
TORZack
Wheeler
8.04.0221.8%11.3%5.2%2.2%0.8%
TEXPaul
Blackburn
7.03.9921.3%11.0%5.1%2.1%0.8%
PHIRoss
Stripling
8.03.9821.2%10.9%5.0%2.1%0.8%
TBJosh
Winckowski
7.03.9520.7%10.6%4.8%2.0%0.7%
MIAJT
Brubaker
7.03.9120.1%10.2%4.6%1.9%0.7%
STLTony
Gonsolin
8.53.9120.1%10.2%4.6%1.9%0.7%
DETBrady
Singer
8.03.8719.5%9.8%4.4%1.8%0.7%
ARISam
Long
8.03.8519.2%9.6%4.3%1.7%0.6%
BALJustin
Steele
8.03.7417.6%8.5%3.7%1.5%0.5%
NYMCharlie
Morton
8.03.6716.6%7.9%3.4%1.3%0.5%
LAACristian
Javier
7.03.6316.0%7.6%3.2%1.2%0.4%
HOUShohei
Ohtani
7.03.3712.6%5.6%2.2%0.8%0.3%
CINLuis
Severino
8.53.1610.1%4.2%1.6%0.5%0.2%
PITPablo
Lopez
7.03.099.3%3.8%1.4%0.5%0.1%
BOSShane
McClanahan
7.03.058.9%3.6%1.3%0.4%0.1%
OAKJon
Gray
7.03.018.5%3.4%1.2%0.4%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Shane
McClanahan
BOS7.493.8%86.3%75.1%61.2%46.5%32.8%21.6%
Shohei
Ohtani
HOU7.292.7%84.2%72.0%57.5%42.7%29.3%18.7%
Cristian
Javier
LAA7.091.6%82.3%69.4%54.4%39.5%26.6%16.5%
Jon
Gray
OAK6.790.2%80.0%66.2%50.8%36.0%23.5%14.2%
Zack
Wheeler
TOR6.588.6%77.3%62.7%46.9%32.3%20.5%12.0%
Charlie
Morton
NYM6.588.5%77.1%62.4%46.6%32.0%20.3%11.8%
Luis
Severino
CIN6.488.1%76.5%61.6%45.8%31.3%19.7%11.4%
Justin
Steele
BAL6.488.0%76.4%61.5%45.6%31.1%19.6%11.3%
Joe
Musgrove
COL6.487.8%76.0%61.0%45.1%30.7%19.2%11.1%
Lucas
Giolito
CLE6.286.7%74.3%58.9%42.9%28.7%17.6%10.0%
Pablo
Lopez
PIT6.084.6%71.1%54.9%38.9%25.2%15.0%8.2%
Chris
Bassitt
ATL5.984.3%70.7%54.5%38.4%24.8%14.7%8.0%
Adam
Wainwright
LAD5.378.0%61.7%44.3%28.9%17.1%9.3%4.6%
Tarik
Skubal
KC5.377.1%60.6%43.1%27.8%16.3%8.7%4.3%
Ross
Stripling
PHI5.276.7%60.1%42.6%27.4%16.0%8.5%4.1%
JT
Brubaker
MIA5.275.8%58.9%41.4%26.3%15.2%8.0%3.8%
Brady
Singer
DET5.175.1%58.0%40.5%25.6%14.6%7.6%3.6%
Tony
Gonsolin
STL5.073.1%55.4%37.9%23.3%13.0%6.6%3.1%
Joe
Ryan
MIL4.971.8%53.8%36.3%22.0%12.1%6.1%2.8%
Aaron
Ashby
MIN4.871.0%52.9%35.4%21.3%11.6%5.8%2.6%
Zac
Gallen
SF4.870.7%52.6%35.1%21.1%11.4%5.6%2.5%
Aaron
Civale
CHW4.768.4%49.8%32.5%19.0%10.0%4.8%2.1%
Connor
Seabold
TB4.565.4%46.4%29.4%16.6%8.5%3.9%1.7%
Mike
Minor
NYY4.362.6%43.3%26.7%14.7%7.3%3.2%1.3%
Chad
Kuhl
SD4.260.1%40.6%24.4%13.0%6.3%2.7%1.1%
Paul
Blackburn
TEX4.057.0%37.5%21.8%11.3%5.2%2.2%0.8%
Erick
Fedde
SEA4.055.7%36.1%20.7%10.6%4.8%2.0%0.7%
Sam
Long
ARI3.545.3%26.5%13.6%6.2%2.5%0.9%0.3%
Spenser
Watkins
CHC2.932.1%16.2%7.0%2.7%0.9%0.3%0.1%
Tommy
Milone
WSH2.013.9%5.1%1.6%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
Pitcher
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes103Lucas
Giolito
24.6%+305
Aaron
Judge
NYYYes103Mike
Minor
24.4%+310
Luke
Voit
SDNo108Chad
Kuhl
24.1%+315
Willy
Adames
MILNo98Joe
Ryan
23.9%+320
Austin
Riley
ATLNo97Chris
Bassitt
23.7%+320
Rhys
Hoskins
PHINo101Ross
Stripling
23.5%+325
Giancarlo
Stanton
NYYYes103Mike
Minor
23.4%+330
Corey
Seager
TEXYes101Paul
Blackburn
22.9%+335
Mike
Trout
LAANo103Cristian
Javier
22.3%+350
Matt
Olson
ATLYes100Chris
Bassitt
21.7%+360
Byron
Buxton
MINYes98Aaron
Ashby
21.0%+375
C.J.
Cron
COLNo108Joe
Musgrove
20.9%+380
Julio
Rodriguez
SEANo106Erick
Fedde
20.7%+385
Jose
Altuve
HOUNo103Shohei
Ohtani
20.2%+395
Hunter
Dozier
KCYes92Tarik
Skubal
20.1%+400
Isaac
Paredes
TBNo94Connor
Seabold
19.9%+400
Trevor
Story
BOSYes94Shane
McClanahan
19.9%+405
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYNo109Mike
Minor
19.8%+405
Jorge
Alfaro
SDNo108Chad
Kuhl
19.8%+405
Kyle
Schwarber
PHIYes94Ross
Stripling
19.8%+405
Christopher
Morel
CHCNo103Spenser
Watkins
19.7%+410
Josh
Naylor
CLEYes103Lucas
Giolito
19.4%+415
Kyle
Garlick
MINYes98Aaron
Ashby
19.3%+415
Manny
Machado
SDNo108Chad
Kuhl
19.2%+420
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCNo103Spenser
Watkins
19.1%+425
Joey
Votto
CINYes109Luis
Severino
19.0%+425
Ji-Man
Choi
TBYes92Connor
Seabold
18.9%+430
Austin
Hays
BALYes103Justin
Steele
18.9%+430
Jorge
Polanco
MINYes98Aaron
Ashby
18.7%+435
Joc
Pederson
SFYes87Zac
Gallen
18.6%+435
Josh
Bell
WSHYes106Tommy
Milone
18.6%+435
Willson
Contreras
CHCNo103Spenser
Watkins
18.5%+440
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes100Charlie
Morton
18.4%+445
Eugenio
Suarez
SEANo106Erick
Fedde
18.3%+445
Shohei
Ohtani
LAAYes108Cristian
Javier
18.3%+445
Will
Smith
LADNo91Adam
Wainwright
17.9%+460
Bobby
Witt Jr.
KCYes92Tarik
Skubal
17.9%+460
Tyler
Naquin
CINYes109Luis
Severino
17.8%+465
Juan
Soto
WSHNo104Tommy
Milone
17.6%+470
Darick
Hall
PHIYes94Ross
Stripling
17.6%+470
Jordan
Luplow
ARIYes90Sam
Long
17.6%+470
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo99Aaron
Civale
17.4%+475
Nelson
Cruz
WSHYes106Tommy
Milone
17.3%+480
Lane
Thomas
WSHYes106Tommy
Milone
17.3%+480
Kyle
Tucker
HOUYes108Shohei
Ohtani
17.0%+490
Josh
Donaldson
NYYYes103Mike
Minor
16.9%+490
Gleyber
Torres
NYYYes103Mike
Minor
16.9%+490
Mookie
Betts
LADNo91Adam
Wainwright
16.8%+495
Trea
Turner
LADNo91Adam
Wainwright
16.8%+495
Seth
Brown
OAKYes101Jon
Gray
16.7%+500
Brandon
Drury
CINNo103Luis
Severino
16.7%+500
Taylor
Ward
LAANo103Cristian
Javier
16.7%+500
Ian
Happ
CHCYes96Spenser
Watkins
16.7%+500
Marcell
Ozuna
ATLNo97Chris
Bassitt
16.5%+505
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes104Erick
Fedde
16.5%+505
Dylan
Moore
SEANo106Erick
Fedde
16.4%+510
Adolis
Garcia
TEXNo95Paul
Blackburn
16.2%+515
Luis
Robert
CHWNo99Aaron
Civale
16.2%+520
Rafael
Devers
BOSNo92Shane
McClanahan
15.9%+525
J.D.
Martinez
BOSYes94Shane
McClanahan
15.7%+535
Gavin
Sheets
CHWYes103Aaron
Civale
15.7%+540
Justin
Turner
LADNo91Adam
Wainwright
15.7%+540
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLNo91Tony
Gonsolin
15.7%+540
DJ
LeMahieu
NYYYes103Mike
Minor
15.5%+545
Jesus
Sanchez
MIAYes92JT
Brubaker
15.5%+545
Jack
Suwinski
PITYes92Pablo
Lopez
15.5%+545
Alex
Bregman
HOUNo103Shohei
Ohtani
15.4%+550
Jeremy
Pena
HOUNo103Shohei
Ohtani
15.4%+550
Rowdy
Tellez
MILYes99Joe
Ryan
15.2%+560
Christian
Walker
ARIYes90Sam
Long
15.2%+560
Alejandro
Kirk
TORNo101Zack
Wheeler
15.1%+560
Juan
Yepez
STLNo91Tony
Gonsolin
15.1%+565
Marcus
Semien
TEXNo95Paul
Blackburn
15.0%+565
Wilmer
Flores
SFNo90Zac
Gallen
15.0%+570
Mike
Yastrzemski
SFYes87Zac
Gallen
14.8%+575
Tommy
Pham
CINNo103Luis
Severino
14.7%+580
Dansby
Swanson
ATLNo97Chris
Bassitt
14.6%+585
Eduardo
Escobar
NYMYes100Charlie
Morton
14.6%+585
Vladimir
Guerrero Jr.
TORNo101Zack
Wheeler
14.5%+590
Freddie
Freeman
LADYes97Adam
Wainwright
14.3%+600
Cody
Bellinger
LADYes97Adam
Wainwright
14.3%+600
Nolan
Gorman
STLYes97Tony
Gonsolin
14.3%+600
Brandon
Belt
SFYes87Zac
Gallen
14.2%+600
Keston
Hiura
MILNo98Joe
Ryan
14.1%+610
Brad
Miller
TEXYes101Paul
Blackburn
14.1%+610
Elias
Diaz
COLNo108Joe
Musgrove
13.9%+620
Danny
Jansen
TORNo101Zack
Wheeler
13.8%+625
Ramon
Laureano
OAKNo95Jon
Gray
13.8%+625
Daulton
Varsho
ARINo87Sam
Long
13.8%+625
Francisco
Mejia
TBYes92Connor
Seabold
13.7%+630
Max
Muncy
LADYes97Adam
Wainwright
13.6%+635
Eloy
Jimenez
CHWNo99Aaron
Civale
13.6%+635
Gio
Urshela
MINYes98Aaron
Ashby
13.5%+640
Gary
Sanchez
MINYes98Aaron
Ashby
13.5%+640
Ryan
Jeffers
MINYes98Aaron
Ashby
13.5%+640
Jake
Cronenworth
SDYes109Chad
Kuhl
13.5%+640
Luis
Urias
MILNo98Joe
Ryan
13.5%+645
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXYes101Paul
Blackburn
13.4%+645
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes101Paul
Blackburn
13.4%+645
Chas
McCormick
HOUNo103Shohei
Ohtani
13.3%+650
Cesar
Hernandez
WSHYes106Tommy
Milone
12.9%+675
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWNo99Aaron
Civale
12.9%+675
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes103Lucas
Giolito
12.9%+675
Andrew
McCutchen
MILNo98Joe
Ryan
12.8%+680
Mike
Moustakas
CINYes109Luis
Severino
12.7%+685
Trent
Grisham
SDYes109Chad
Kuhl
12.7%+685
Rougned
Odor
BALNo96Justin
Steele
12.7%+685
Travis
d'Arnaud
ATLNo97Chris
Bassitt
12.7%+690
Ronald
Acuna
ATLNo97Chris
Bassitt
12.7%+690
Pete
Alonso
NYMNo97Charlie
Morton
12.7%+690
Nolan
Arenado
STLNo91Tony
Gonsolin
12.6%+690
Trey
Mancini
BALYes103Justin
Steele
12.6%+695
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALYes103Justin
Steele
12.6%+695
Didi
Gregorius
PHIYes94Ross
Stripling
12.6%+695
George
Springer
TORNo101Zack
Wheeler
12.4%+705
Randal
Grichuk
COLNo108Joe
Musgrove
12.4%+705
Ty
France
SEANo106Erick
Fedde
12.2%+720
Jose
Miranda
MINYes98Aaron
Ashby
12.1%+730
Charlie
Blackmon
COLYes109Joe
Musgrove
12.0%+735
Kole
Calhoun
TEXYes101Paul
Blackburn
11.9%+735
Martin
Maldonado
HOUNo103Shohei
Ohtani
11.9%+740
Brandon
Nimmo
NYMYes100Charlie
Morton
11.8%+745
Michael
Harris II
ATLYes100Chris
Bassitt
11.8%+745
Anthony
Santander
BALYes103Justin
Steele
11.8%+745
Ramon
Urias
BALYes103Justin
Steele
11.8%+745
Joey
Wendle
MIAYes92JT
Brubaker
11.7%+755
Randy
Arozarena
TBNo94Connor
Seabold
11.7%+755
Bobby
Dalbec
BOSYes94Shane
McClanahan
11.6%+760
Amed
Rosario
CLENo99Lucas
Giolito
11.5%+770
Emmanuel
Rivera
KCYes92Tarik
Skubal
11.4%+775
Jesus
Aguilar
MIANo90JT
Brubaker
11.2%+790
Tyler
Stephenson
CINNo103Luis
Severino
11.2%+795
Nomar
Mazara
SDYes109Chad
Kuhl
11.2%+795
LaMonte
Wade Jr
SFYes87Zac
Gallen
11.1%+800
Dan
Vogelbach
PITYes92Pablo
Lopez
11.0%+810
Nick
Castellanos
PHINo101Ross
Stripling
11.0%+810
Jose
Azocar
SDNo108Chad
Kuhl
10.8%+820
Carlos
Santana
SEAYes104Erick
Fedde
10.7%+835
Nolan
Jones
CLEYes103Lucas
Giolito
10.6%+840
Alek
Thomas
ARINo87Sam
Long
10.6%+845
Joey
Bart
SFNo90Zac
Gallen
10.6%+845
Bryson
Stott
PHIYes94Ross
Stripling
10.5%+850
Max
Stassi
LAANo103Cristian
Javier
10.4%+860
Seiya
Suzuki
CHCNo103Spenser
Watkins
10.4%+860
Sean
Murphy
OAKNo95Jon
Gray
10.4%+860
Ryan
McMahon
COLYes109Joe
Musgrove
10.3%+865
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes108Cristian
Javier
10.3%+875
Kolten
Wong
MILYes99Joe
Ryan
10.3%+875
Omar
Narvaez
MILYes99Joe
Ryan
10.3%+875
Matt
Chapman
TORNo101Zack
Wheeler
10.2%+880
Bo
Bichette
TORNo101Zack
Wheeler
10.2%+880
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes103Justin
Steele
10.2%+880
Jake
Lamb
LADYes97Adam
Wainwright
10.1%+895
Connor
Joe
COLNo108Joe
Musgrove
10.0%+895
Michael
Taylor
KCYes92Tarik
Skubal
10.0%+900
MJ
Melendez
KCNo92Tarik
Skubal
10.0%+900
Jesse
Winker
SEAYes104Erick
Fedde
9.9%+910
Garrett
Cooper
MIANo90JT
Brubaker
9.9%+910
Tomas
Nido
NYMNo97Charlie
Morton
9.9%+915
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes103Aaron
Civale
9.8%+915
Ketel
Marte
ARIYes90Sam
Long
9.8%+920
Carlos
Correa
MINYes98Aaron
Ashby
9.8%+925
Elvis
Andrus
OAKNo95Jon
Gray
9.7%+935
Aledmys
Diaz
HOUNo103Shohei
Ohtani
9.6%+940
Michael
Perez
PITYes92Pablo
Lopez
9.6%+940
Josh
Lowe
TBYes92Connor
Seabold
9.6%+940
Eddie
Rosario
ATLYes100Chris
Bassitt
9.6%+945
Eric
Hosmer
SDYes109Chad
Kuhl
9.5%+955
Christian
Yelich
MILYes99Joe
Ryan
9.5%+955
Jared
Walsh
LAAYes108Cristian
Javier
9.4%+960
Jose
Trevino
NYYYes103Mike
Minor
9.4%+965
Jorge
Mateo
BALYes103Justin
Steele
9.4%+965
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes103Justin
Steele
9.4%+965
Alfonso
Rivas
CHCYes96Spenser
Watkins
9.2%+985
Brendan
Rodgers
COLNo108Joe
Musgrove
9.2%+985
Ke'Bryan
Hayes
PITNo90Pablo
Lopez
9.2%+985
David
Villar
SFNo90Zac
Gallen
9.2%+985
Leody
Taveras
TEXYes101Paul
Blackburn
8.9%+1025
Yairo
Munoz
PHINo101Ross
Stripling
8.7%+1050
Santiago
Espinal
TORNo101Zack
Wheeler
8.7%+1050
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSYes94Shane
McClanahan
8.6%+1055
Jonathan
Villar
LAAYes108Cristian
Javier
8.6%+1065
Brandon
Marsh
LAAYes108Cristian
Javier
8.6%+1065
Franmil
Reyes
CLENo99Lucas
Giolito
8.5%+1070
Yadiel
Hernandez
WSHNo104Tommy
Milone
8.4%+1085
Kyle
Farmer
CINNo103Luis
Severino
8.0%+1145
Nico
Hoerner
CHCNo103Spenser
Watkins
8.0%+1145
Jake
Meyers
HOUNo103Shohei
Ohtani
8.0%+1145
Jonathan
Schoop
DETNo92Brady
Singer
8.0%+1155
Luis
Garcia
WSHYes106Tommy
Milone
7.9%+1170
Jake
Marisnick
PITNo90Pablo
Lopez
7.8%+1180
Kevin
Newman
PITNo90Pablo
Lopez
7.8%+1180
Tim
Anderson
CHWNo99Aaron
Civale
7.7%+1190
Edward
Olivares
KCYes92Tarik
Skubal
7.7%+1200
Odubel
Herrera
PHIYes94Ross
Stripling
7.5%+1225
Ha-Seong
Kim
SDNo108Chad
Kuhl
7.5%+1230
Ben
Gamel
PITYes92Pablo
Lopez
7.4%+1250
Yoshitomo
Tsutsugo
PITYes92Pablo
Lopez
7.4%+1250
Taylor
Walls
TBYes92Connor
Seabold
7.4%+1250
Oneil
Cruz
PITYes92Pablo
Lopez
7.4%+1250
Yandy
Diaz
TBNo94Connor
Seabold
7.4%+1255
Javier
Baez
DETNo92Brady
Singer
7.2%+1280
Matt
Vierling
PHINo101Ross
Stripling
7.1%+1310
Corey
Dickerson
STLYes97Tony
Gonsolin
7.0%+1335
Dylan
Carlson
STLYes97Tony
Gonsolin
7.0%+1335
Rafael
Ortega
CHCYes96Spenser
Watkins
6.9%+1350
Starling
Marte
NYMNo97Charlie
Morton
6.8%+1365
Jeimer
Candelario
DETYes92Brady
Singer
6.6%+1405
Brett
Phillips
TBYes92Connor
Seabold
6.6%+1405
Akil
Baddoo
DETYes92Brady
Singer
6.6%+1405
Harold
Ramirez
TBNo94Connor
Seabold
6.6%+1410
Adam
Frazier
SEAYes104Erick
Fedde
6.6%+1420
Brian
Anderson
MIANo90JT
Brubaker
6.4%+1470
Robinson
Cano
ATLYes100Chris
Bassitt
6.3%+1480
Dominic
Smith
NYMYes100Charlie
Morton
6.3%+1480
Jace
Peterson
MILYes99Joe
Ryan
6.3%+1495
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORNo101Zack
Wheeler
6.3%+1500

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