MLB
MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Monday 7/11/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
SDJose
Urena
11.56.2158.7%42.7%28.5%17.5%9.9%
COLSean
Manaea
11.55.2943.5%28.1%16.5%8.9%4.4%
KCMichael
Pineda
9.04.8435.6%21.5%11.7%5.8%2.6%
KCAlex
Faedo
9.04.7634.2%20.4%11.0%5.4%2.4%
TEXAdrian
Martinez
8.54.7534.0%20.2%10.9%5.3%2.4%
CHWCal
Quantrill
9.04.5730.9%17.8%9.2%4.4%1.9%
CLELance
Lynn
9.04.4328.5%16.0%8.1%3.7%1.6%
DETDaniel
Lynch
9.04.2425.3%13.7%6.7%2.9%1.2%
DETBrad
Keller
9.04.1624.0%12.8%6.1%2.7%1.0%
SFMerrill
Kelly
7.54.1223.4%12.4%5.9%2.5%1.0%
MIAMitch
Keller
7.54.1023.1%12.1%5.7%2.4%1.0%
PHIMiles
Mikolas
7.53.8218.7%9.3%4.1%1.6%0.6%
BOSMatt
Wisler
7.53.7818.1%8.9%3.9%1.6%0.6%
OAKSpencer
Howard
8.53.7517.7%8.6%3.8%1.5%0.5%
TBBrayan
Bello
7.53.7217.3%8.4%3.6%1.4%0.5%
ATLMax
Scherzer
7.03.6916.8%8.1%3.5%1.3%0.5%
STLAaron
Nola
7.53.6816.7%8.0%3.4%1.3%0.5%
PITTrevor
Rogers
7.53.4012.9%5.8%2.3%0.8%0.3%
ARIAlex
Cobb
7.53.3812.7%5.6%2.2%0.8%0.3%
NYMMax
Fried
7.03.3111.8%5.2%2.0%0.7%0.2%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Aaron
Nola
STL7.493.8%86.2%75.0%61.1%46.4%32.7%21.5%
Max
Scherzer
ATL6.890.5%80.5%66.9%51.5%36.7%24.1%14.7%
Max
Fried
NYM6.689.5%78.8%64.7%49.1%34.3%22.2%13.2%
Sean
Manaea
COL6.387.3%75.2%60.0%44.0%29.7%18.4%10.5%
Alex
Cobb
ARI5.175.0%57.9%40.3%25.4%14.5%7.6%3.6%
Lance
Lynn
CLE5.174.9%57.7%40.2%25.3%14.4%7.5%3.6%
Miles
Mikolas
PHI5.073.9%56.5%38.9%24.2%13.7%7.0%3.3%
Trevor
Rogers
PIT5.073.6%56.1%38.6%23.9%13.4%6.9%3.2%
Merrill
Kelly
SF4.971.5%53.5%35.9%21.8%11.9%5.9%2.7%
Brad
Keller
DET4.667.3%48.5%31.3%18.1%9.4%4.5%1.9%
Cal
Quantrill
CHW4.667.1%48.3%31.1%17.9%9.3%4.4%1.9%
Daniel
Lynch
DET4.565.3%46.2%29.2%16.5%8.4%3.9%1.6%
Mitch
Keller
MIA4.564.9%45.8%28.9%16.3%8.3%3.8%1.6%
Josh
Fleming
BOS4.464.4%45.3%28.3%15.9%8.0%3.7%1.5%
Alex
Faedo
KC3.852.2%32.8%18.1%8.9%3.9%1.6%0.6%
Adrian
Martinez
TEX3.750.0%30.7%16.6%7.9%3.4%1.3%0.5%
Michael
Pineda
KC3.445.0%26.3%13.5%6.1%2.4%0.9%0.3%
Jose
Urena
SD3.341.5%23.4%11.5%5.0%1.9%0.7%0.2%
Spencer
Howard
OAK3.137.1%19.8%9.2%3.8%1.4%0.4%0.1%
Brayan
Bello
TB3.035.1%18.3%8.3%3.3%1.2%0.4%0.1%
Matt
Wisler
BOS1.56.6%1.9%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Platoon?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Platoon? HR
PF
Opp
Pitcher
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Rhys
Hoskins
PHINo91Miles
Mikolas
23.6%+325
Luke
Voit
SDNo108Jose
Urena
22.6%+345
C.J.
Cron
COLYes108Sean
Manaea
22.5%+345
Josh
Naylor
CLEYes103Lance
Lynn
21.7%+360
Adolis
Garcia
TEXNo95Adrian
Martinez
21.1%+375
Austin
Riley
ATLNo97Max
Scherzer
20.9%+380
Pete
Alonso
NYMYes97Max
Fried
20.9%+380
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes103Lance
Lynn
20.6%+385
Brad
Miller
TEXYes101Adrian
Martinez
20.3%+395
Franmil
Reyes
CLENo99Lance
Lynn
20.2%+395
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes90Trevor
Rogers
19.7%+405
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes101Adrian
Martinez
19.7%+405
Matt
Olson
ATLYes100Max
Scherzer
19.6%+410
Ji-Man
Choi
TBYes92Brayan
Bello
19.4%+415
Corey
Seager
TEXYes101Adrian
Martinez
19.1%+420
Marcus
Semien
TEXNo95Adrian
Martinez
19.0%+425
Manny
Machado
SDNo108Jose
Urena
18.6%+440
Kyle
Schwarber
PHIYes97Miles
Mikolas
18.6%+440
Isaac
Paredes
TBNo94Brayan
Bello
18.3%+445
Joc
Pederson
SFYes87Merrill
Kelly
18.1%+450
Marcell
Ozuna
ATLNo97Max
Scherzer
17.7%+465
Mitch
Garver
TEXNo95Adrian
Martinez
17.4%+475
Rafael
Devers
BOSNo92Josh
Fleming
17.4%+475
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo99Cal
Quantrill
17.4%+475
Seth
Brown
OAKYes101Spencer
Howard
17.4%+475
Javier
Baez
DETNo92Brad
Keller
17.0%+490
Hunter
Dozier
KCNo92Alex
Faedo
17.0%+490
Ramon
Laureano
OAKNo95Spencer
Howard
16.8%+495
Dansby
Swanson
ATLNo97Max
Scherzer
16.5%+505
J.D.
Martinez
BOSYes94Josh
Fleming
16.3%+510
Trevor
Story
BOSYes94Josh
Fleming
16.3%+510
Gavin
Sheets
CHWYes103Cal
Quantrill
16.3%+510
Jesus
Sanchez
MIAYes92Mitch
Keller
16.1%+520
Kole
Calhoun
TEXYes101Adrian
Martinez
16.1%+520
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXYes101Adrian
Martinez
16.1%+520
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCNo92Michael
Pineda
15.8%+530
Randal
Grichuk
COLYes108Sean
Manaea
15.4%+550
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLNo91Aaron
Nola
15.1%+565
Nolan
Arenado
STLNo91Aaron
Nola
15.1%+565
Juan
Yepez
STLNo91Aaron
Nola
15.1%+565
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSYes94Josh
Fleming
15.1%+565
Jack
Suwinski
PITNo92Trevor
Rogers
14.9%+570
A.J.
Pollock
CHWNo99Cal
Quantrill
14.9%+570
Eduardo
Escobar
NYMYes97Max
Fried
14.8%+575
Kris
Bryant
COLYes108Sean
Manaea
14.7%+580
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes103Lance
Lynn
14.3%+600
Eloy
Jimenez
CHWNo99Cal
Quantrill
14.2%+600
Brandon
Belt
SFYes87Merrill
Kelly
14.2%+600
Diego
Castillo
PITYes90Trevor
Rogers
13.9%+620
Christian
Walker
ARINo90Alex
Cobb
13.8%+625
Trent
Grisham
SDYes109Jose
Urena
13.5%+640
Javier
Baez
DETYes92Daniel
Lynch
13.5%+640
Vimael
Machin
OAKYes101Spencer
Howard
13.4%+645
Ronald
Acuna
ATLNo97Max
Scherzer
13.3%+650
Michael
Chavis
PITYes90Trevor
Rogers
13.3%+655
Darick
Hall
PHIYes97Miles
Mikolas
12.9%+675
Luis
Robert
CHWNo99Cal
Quantrill
12.9%+675
Mark
Canha
NYMYes97Max
Fried
12.7%+685
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes97Max
Fried
12.7%+685
Jesus
Aguilar
MIANo90Mitch
Keller
12.5%+700
David
Peralta
ARIYes87Alex
Cobb
12.4%+705
Francisco
Mejia
TBYes92Brayan
Bello
12.4%+710
Garrett
Cooper
MIANo90Mitch
Keller
11.9%+740
Eddie
Rosario
ATLYes100Max
Scherzer
11.8%+745
Ketel
Marte
ARIYes87Alex
Cobb
11.8%+750
Alek
Thomas
ARIYes87Alex
Cobb
11.8%+750
Robert
Refsnyder
BOSYes94Josh
Fleming
11.6%+760
Nolan
Gorman
STLYes97Aaron
Nola
11.5%+765
Amed
Rosario
CLENo99Lance
Lynn
11.5%+770
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCNo92Alex
Faedo
11.5%+775
Nolan
Jones
CLEYes103Lance
Lynn
11.4%+780
Wilmer
Flores
SFNo90Merrill
Kelly
11.2%+790
J.D.
Davis
NYMYes97Max
Fried
11.2%+790
Sean
Murphy
OAKNo95Spencer
Howard
11.1%+800
Nicky
Lopez
KCYes92Michael
Pineda
11.0%+810
Randy
Arozarena
TBNo94Brayan
Bello
11.0%+810
Alex
Verdugo
BOSNo92Josh
Fleming
10.6%+845
Mike
Yastrzemski
SFYes87Merrill
Kelly
10.5%+855
LaMonte
Wade
Jr
SFYes87Merrill
Kelly
10.5%+855
Daulton
Varsho
ARIYes87Alex
Cobb
10.5%+855
Michael
Harris
II
ATLYes100Max
Scherzer
10.3%+865
Dylan
Carlson
STLYes97Aaron
Nola
10.1%+895
Jose
Azocar
SDNo108Jose
Urena
10.0%+895
Tucker
Barnhart
DETYes92Daniel
Lynch
10.0%+900
Oneil
Cruz
PITNo92Trevor
Rogers
10.0%+900
Travis
d'Arnaud
ATLNo97Max
Scherzer
9.9%+915
Elias
Diaz
COLYes108Sean
Manaea
9.8%+920
Connor
Joe
COLYes108Sean
Manaea
9.8%+920
Nicky
Lopez
KCYes92Alex
Faedo
9.6%+940
MJ
Melendez
KCYes92Alex
Faedo
9.6%+940
Ryan
McMahon
COLNo109Sean
Manaea
9.5%+950
Bobby
Dalbec
BOSYes94Josh
Fleming
9.4%+960
Spencer
Torkelson
DETNo92Brad
Keller
9.4%+965
J.T.
Realmuto
PHINo91Miles
Mikolas
9.3%+975
Tim
Anderson
CHWNo99Cal
Quantrill
9.3%+975
Seby
Zavala
CHWNo99Cal
Quantrill
9.3%+975
Ha-Seong
Kim
SDNo108Jose
Urena
9.2%+985
Andrew
Benintendi
KCYes92Michael
Pineda
8.9%+1025
Michael
Taylor
KCNo92Alex
Faedo
8.7%+1050
Michael
Taylor
KCNo92Michael
Pineda
8.7%+1050
Jake
Cronenworth
SDYes109Jose
Urena
8.6%+1060
Didi
Gregorius
PHIYes97Miles
Mikolas
8.6%+1070
Bryson
Stott
PHIYes97Miles
Mikolas
8.6%+1070
Joey
Bart
SFNo90Merrill
Kelly
8.5%+1070
Spencer
Torkelson
DETYes92Daniel
Lynch
8.5%+1080
Taylor
Walls
TBYes92Brayan
Bello
8.1%+1125
Brendan
Rodgers
COLYes108Sean
Manaea
8.0%+1150
Whit
Merrifield
KCNo92Michael
Pineda
8.0%+1155
Edward
Olivares
KCNo92Michael
Pineda
8.0%+1155
Nick
Castellanos
PHINo91Miles
Mikolas
7.9%+1165
David
Villar
SFNo90Merrill
Kelly
7.8%+1180
Brendan
Donovan
STLYes97Aaron
Nola
7.8%+1185
Ke'Bryan
Hayes
PITYes90Trevor
Rogers
7.5%+1225
Elvis
Andrus
OAKNo95Spencer
Howard
7.5%+1240
Stephen
Piscotty
OAKNo95Spencer
Howard
7.5%+1240
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes103Cal
Quantrill
7.4%+1255
Jonathan
Schoop
DETNo92Brad
Keller
7.2%+1280
Emmanuel
Rivera
KCNo92Michael
Pineda
7.2%+1280
Avisail
Garcia
MIANo90Mitch
Keller
7.1%+1310
Brian
Anderson
MIANo90Mitch
Keller
7.1%+1310
Christian
Vazquez
BOSYes94Josh
Fleming
7.0%+1320
Tommy
Edman
STLYes97Aaron
Nola
7.0%+1335
Robbie
Grossman
DETYes92Daniel
Lynch
6.9%+1350
Yoshitomo
Tsutsugo
PITNo92Trevor
Rogers
6.9%+1350
Andrew
Benintendi
KCYes92Alex
Faedo
6.6%+1405
Brett
Phillips
TBYes92Brayan
Bello
6.6%+1405
Riley
Greene
DETYes92Brad
Keller
6.6%+1405
Vinnie
Pasquantino
KCYes92Michael
Pineda
6.6%+1405
Buddy
Kennedy
ARINo90Alex
Cobb
6.4%+1470

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