3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Monday 7/11/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Manny Machado To Hit a Home Run (+290)/Luke Voit To Hit a Home Run (+230)
The San Diego Padres have a monstrous 6.48 implied run total at Coors Field tonight.
That run total puts them atop the slate and a target for many player props tonight. They are going up against Jose Urena, who only has 14.1 innings pitched this season, so we'll look back to his numbers from last year. In 2021, Urena allowed a .322 wOBA, a .412 SLG, 1.01 HR/9, a 4.13 xFIP, and a 39.5% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters. This puts several of the Padres' hitters in a great spot, so it's no surprise we are turning to Manny Machado and Luke Voit.
Machado comes in with a 155 wRC+, a .388 wOBA, a .188 ISO, a 38.9% fly-ball rate, and a 33.8% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. Voit carries a 124 wRC+, a .342 wOBA, a .237 ISO, a 39.6% fly-ball rate, and a 40.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.
They both have elite numbers for this split, and given the high team total, I'm also looking to Machado To Record an RBI (-120) and Voit To Record an RBI (-140).
Max Scherzer Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+116)
The New York Mets have their ace, Max Scherzer, on the mound tonight in a huge matchup versus the Atlanta Braves.
This is an important match for the NL East standings, but we are turning to Scherzer's strikeout prop, which is sitting at 7.5 tonight with +116 on the over. Scherzer is elite as always, holding a 32.7% strikeout rate this season. That jumps up to 35.1% versus right-handed hitters. Considering the Braves generally run a predominately right-handed lineup, Scherzer faces a great matchup.
The Braves also come in with a 24.7% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the fourth-highest in the league. It's also good to note the fact Scherzer had 79 total pitches last week against the Cincinnati Reds, which was his first start since returning from the injured list. We should anticipate him going close to -- or over -- 90 pitches tonight.
Scherzer's alternate line of 9+ Strikeouts (+186) and 10+ Strikeouts (+340) should also be on the table because, well, it's Max Scherzer after all.
Adolis Garcia To Record an RBI (+120)
If we're looking for some offense tonight, the Texas Rangers could bring that against the Oakland Athletics.
A strong 4.75 implied run total put the Rangers as the third-highest team on the slate, which is a perfect spot to look for some player props.
They are at home and set to take on Adrian Martinez, who is in his rookie year and only has a total of 15.0 innings pitched in the MLB. His stats are massively skewed since his sample size is so small, and thus, not really worth mentioning in detail. Long story short -- Martinez isn't good now (5.90 FIP), doesn't project to be a good pitcher, and once he's out of the game, the Athletics' bullpen isn't great either (4.35 xFIP this season; fifth-worst in MLBO.
Adolis Garcia hits in the clean-up spot for the Rangers, making him an ideal candidate for an RBI prop tonight. He has a strong 121 wRC+, a .336 wOBA, a .223 ISO, a 38.6% fly-ball rate, and a 39.8% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season.
Those are truly strong numbers across the board and with his home run potential, he could knock in a few runs quickly. That's why I'm also going with Garcia 2+ RBI (+390).
