FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Wednesday 7/6/22
Following an abysmal pitching slate on Tuesday, we get a far stronger group to parse through tonight. We also get a number of top offenses in appealing spots, but it's the Los Angeles Dodgers who find themselves in a tier of their own.
Our daily helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups. Be sure to also incorporate our great tools into your research process. Whether you're looking for daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, or batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups -- we've got you covered!
Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
Over his last 13 starts, Nola has logged seven or more innings 9 times, and he's also done so in 5 straight. Outside of the rare Sandy Alcantara, you just don't see many pitchers consistently going deep into games like this these days.
And it's not like those are empty innings, either; he brings an excellent 2.80 SIERA, 29.1% strikeout rate, and 3.5% walk rate into tonight.
The Nationals' active roster has only a 19.6% strikeout rate against right-handers, but Nola overcame that in a start last month by racking up eight punchouts over eight scoreless innings, leading to a hefty 52 FanDuel points. Washington's implied total (3.28) is one of the lowest of Wednesday's slate.
Given the opponent, you could certainly shoot for the moon with some other pitchers in tournaments, but Nola fits the bill as a trustworthy cash-game play.
Overall, he now has a 3.00 SIERA and 34.3% strikeout rate in 2022, and even if we throw out his innings as a reliever early in the year, his strikeout rate as a starter barely dips to 33.1%.
No one else on the slate can touch that rate of punchouts, which should keep him near the top of your list despite facing a low-strikeout team in the Royals. Kansas City's active roster may have a 20.3% strikeout rate versus righties, but they also own just a 97 wRC+ in the split and have a slate-low implied total (3.10).
While it isn't the ideal matchup, if Javier can post a ceiling game against a far tougher opponent like the Yankees, he absolutely can against a team like the Royals.
Luis Severino ($9,500): Honestly, it's tough to fall in love with anyone in the value range, and that's especially the case when we have such a solid group up top. Plus, rostering someone like Severino still gives us a $1,000 discount off of Nola.
However, it's worth noting that this may not be the perfect matchup for him.
At first glance, Severino is in a plum spot against the Pirates, but there's a good chance Pittsburgh loads up their lineup with nearly all lefties, hurting Severino's upside. Although the Yankees' right-hander has been impressive in his first full post-Tommy John campaign, his strikeout rate dips to just 20.2% against batters with the platoon advantage.
That isn't to say you should cross him off entirely, but it does place him behind Nola and Javier.
Despite the concerns, Severino's season-long marks are something we can get behind, as he's put up a 3.24 SIERA, 28.9% strikeout rate, and 7.3% walk rate over 14 outings. He may not have Nola's workload or Javier's punchouts, but he's gone at least six innings in seven of his last eight and notched at least seven strikeouts six times over that span.
Los Angeles Dodgers
If there's one offense that stands out above the rest tonight, it's the Dodgers, who check in with a 5.55 implied total at home against Jose Urena.
This is a notable implied total for a non-Coors game, and it's not like there are surprise winds or high temperatures bumping that up.
Instead, this is all about Urena, a pitcher who has consistently produced poor numbers dating back to 2019. Outside of doing a decent job of inducing grounders, the right-hander has done little to show he belongs in the Majors anymore.
Last season, he posted a 5.06 SIERA, 14.7% strikeout rate, and 9.2% walk rate over 100 2/3 innings with the Tigers. That's bad enough as is, but it's left-handed batters who have absolutely crushed him over the years, and 2021 was no different, as he owned a 5.71 xFIP, 8.0% strikeout rate, and 10.3% walk rate in the split.
He's logged only 7 2/3 MLB innings in 2022 -- all back in April -- but there's little reason to expect different results. He produced an 8.3% strikeout rate and 13.9% walk rate over those innings, and his five Triple-A starts have been similarly ugly through a 5.83 xFIP, 13.9% strikeout rate, and 11.9% walk rate.
Any way you slice it, this is an incredible spot for the Dodgers and particularly for their lefty sticks. That bumps up Freddie Freeman ($4,200) and Max Muncy ($2,700) as top options, and fellow lefties Cody Bellinger ($2,600) and Jake Lamb ($2,000) are value plays lower in the order.
While Urena's 2021 marks were closer to league average in same-sided matchups, given how he was struggling in Triple-A, there's no reason to avoid any of the top righties like Mookie Betts ($4,000), Trea Turner ($4,300), and Will Smith ($3,300).
Right-hander Brad Keller may not be total dust like Urena, but he's basically like a slightly improved version, recording a solid 49.8% ground-ball rate while owning a ho-hum 4.59 SIERA and 15.6% strikeout rate.
The main difference is that he owns less stark splits, but a low strikeout rate against both sides of the plate makes him ideal for a full Houston Astros stack.
Like yesterday, Yordan Alvarez ($4,300) and Kyle Tucker ($3,600) are go-to options, not only enjoying the platoon advantage but also having sub-40% ground-ball rates to counter Keller's only strength.
New York Yankees
This isn't a bad spot to go back to the well, though, as the Bronx Bombers once again have one of the slate's highest implied totals (4.93) in a plus matchup against Mitch Keller.
Keller's yet another guy where the best thing going for him is his ground-ball rate (51.2%), which is his biggest improvement over last season. However, that's about where the good news ends, as the results have been marginally better, and his underlying numbers include an underwhelming 4.45 SIERA, 18.9% strikeout rate, and 9.9% walk rate.
Like our previous Keller, Mitch doesn't have especially wide splits, but lefties are showing an advantage through a 4.58 xFIP, 16.6% strikeout rate, and 10.2% walk rate. That should put us on Anthony Rizzo ($3,600) if he starts, and, yes, if you can stomach it, Joey Gallo ($2,300) should still be on your radar.