FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Sunday 7/3/22

In a matchup versus Tyler Wells, Minnesota's offense rates as a top stack with a 5.1 implied run total. Which other teams and players are important to Sunday's 9-game slate?

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.


Framber Valdez ($10,100)

In a favorable matchup versus a Los Angeles Angels' lineup with a .308 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and a 71.5% contact rate in their last 138 plate appearances, Valdez stands as numberFire's second overall pitcher with a 33.1 fantasy projection and a 3.32 value rating.

While his command can be an occasional issue (10.1% career walk rate), Houston's left-hander has been in solid form in his last five starts and throughout the 2022 season, accounting for a 3.26 expected Fielding Independent Pitching rating (xFIP) in June and a 3.23 expected mark in 95.0 overall innings.

With six projected hitters with K-rates over 24.6%, Valdez currently ranks fifth at his position with 5.6 expected strikeouts in 6.4 innings.

Brandon Woodruff ($10,000)

Despite a 6.3% salary increase to his third highest point this season, Woodruff rates as Sunday's top pitcher with a 34.5 FanDuel point projection against a Pittsburgh Pirates' team with a .288 wOBA and a 78.3% contact rate.

Overall through 48.2 innings although Milwaukee's right-hander has recorded a career-worst 4.44 Earned Run Average (ERA), the 26-year old is trending towards some good fortune when comparing his current 64.3% left on-base percentage (LOB%) and .305 Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) with his career metrics (75.7 LOB%, .287 career BABIP).

With an impressive 15.9% swinging strike percentage, Woodruff has plenty of chances to meet his 6.5 strikeout prediction against seven projected batters with K-rates over 22.4%.

Charlie Morton ($9,500)

Even at his highest salary point this season, Morton is a viable candidate in all formats with a 3.5 value rating and a 33.3 FanDuel point projection against a Cincinnati Reds' lineup with a .294 wOBA and a 23.5% strikeout percentage.

Although his matchup is the most appealing part of Morton's current profile, the veteran presents plenty of upside with expected metrics (3.82 xFIP) almost one run lower than his 4.73 ERA and an overall efficient 26.1% K-rate.


Houston Astros

Los Angeles' Jose Suarez will make his seventh start this season versus a Houston team with an underestimated 5.0 implied run total.

Through 214.2 career innings, the veteran lefty has overall performed at a below-average level throughout his big league tenure, recording a 4.91 xFIP and a 9.2% walk rate.

With overall neutral splits, Houston stacks can include hitters in ideal batted ball form including Yordan Alvarez (17.9% barrel rate, .489 expected wOBA), Kyle Tucker (12.2% barrel rate, .617 expected slugging), Jose Altuve (9.8% barrel percentage, .506 expected slugging), and Jeremy Pena (.465 expected slugging, 9.5% barrel percentage).

Minnesota Twins

In a matchup against Tyler Wells, the Twins' offense are in a mouth-watering spot against a regressing right-hander with obvious reverse splits (4.92 xFIP in 73.1 innings) and an overall concerning 4.85 xFIP.

Minnesota correlations can involve Carlos Correa (11.8% barrel percentage, .551 expected slugging) and Gary Sanchez (16.7% barrel rate, .536 expected slugging) as main components while Max Kepler (.386 expected wOBA, 8.1% barrel rate), Jorge Polanco (10.9% barrel percentage, .373 expected wOBA), and Nick Gordon (12.7% barrel rate, .572 expected slugging) offer power upside from the left side.

Miami Marlins

The Marlins contains another undervalued total at a sneaky 4.6 mark against Washington's Erick Fedde

In his sixth MLB season, Fedde profiles as an average right-hander utilizing a heavy ground-ball rate (career 50.2%) with a career 4.51 xFIP and a low 18.0% K-rate in 401.0 career innings.

To best counter Fedde's pitching profile among Miami's lineup, fly-ball hitters should be identified as core options including Jesus Aguilar (8.1% barrel rate, 42.1% fly-ball percentage), Jesus Sanchez (34.3% fly-ball rate, 11% barrel rate), Garrett Cooper (9.6% barrel rate, .516 expected slugging) and Avisail Garcia (8.1% barrel percentage).